HAYW · Hayward Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $18.28
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $18.28, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 11.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $18.28, over the $17.41 52-week high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the top of the flat-to-up-3% guidance would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 26 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 260
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 47.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 19.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 161
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −481
- Price to earnings (×)
- 20.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.3
All filed numbers
What Hayward Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 260 | +6.5 | 47.9 | 19.3 |
| first filed | 318 | +6.3 | 48.7 | 23.9 |
| first filed | 255 | +11.5 | 46.5 | 16.6 |
| first filed | 349 | +6.8 | — | 25.0 |
| first filed | 244 | +7.4 | — | 16.8 |
| first filed | 300 | +5.3 | — | 23.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 41.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 170 | 32.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 27 September 2025 | −2.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 199 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 37.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 161 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 475 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current maturities | 956 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −481 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +0.2% on a year | 2.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 139 |
| Inventory ($M) | 246 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,588 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,428 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,909 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 20.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.2 days of average trading to cover, +14.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $29K | $12.0M |
The thesis
Hayward Holdings' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because the 28 October 2026 third-quarter beat and guidance raise are already in the price. The shares closed at $16.77 on 11 November 2026, above the $16 targets Goldman Sachs and Baird set after the report. The fourth-quarter report, expected in late February 2027, settles whether early-buy orders become sales.
The rating is Low because the shares have priced in the raised outlook and the next company report falls at or just past the end of the three-month window. Stifel reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $20 target on 11 November 2026 (StockAnalysis ratings page), the only post-report target well above the price. Insiders sold into the rally. Chief Executive Kevin Holleran exercised 50,000 options at $1.40 and sold 50,000 shares at $16.55 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, according to his SEC Form 4 filed 3 November 2026.
The business case rests on pricing power over installed pools. The company says about 85% of its sales come from aftermarket demand: pumps, filters, heaters and controls replaced on pools already in the ground (28 October 2026 earnings slides). In the third quarter that showed up as price, with net price adding 7% to North America sales and volume only 2%.
Bullish and bearish views on Hayward Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW), in brief: price and volume both grew in North America. The bear case: the fourth-quarter outlook is flat to modest.
Bull case
- Price and volume both grew in North America. Third-quarter North America sales rose 8.7% to $226.4 million, with net price adding 7% and volume 2% (company slides, 28 October 2026).
- Earnings beat estimates. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.18 against a $0.15 estimate, and net sales of $260.1 million beat a $252.5 million estimate (Benzinga, 28 October 2026). Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was $64.5 million, a 24.8% margin.
- Guidance went up. Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance rose to $0.86–$0.88 from $0.84–$0.87, and sales growth guidance to about 5%–6% from about 5% (8-K, 28 October 2026).
- Debt is lower and buybacks are faster. Net leverage fell to 1.5 times at 26 September 2026, the lowest since the 2021 initial public offering. The company bought back $115.3 million of stock in the first nine months, with $331 million left under its $450 million authorization (8-K and slides, 28 October 2026).
- Early-buy orders are running ahead. Management said on 28 October 2026 that North American early-buy orders for the 2027 pool season were ahead of the prior year. Stifel kept a Buy rating and a $20 target on 11 November 2026 (StockAnalysis ratings page).
Bear case
- The fourth-quarter outlook is flat to modest. The company guided fourth-quarter net sales flat to up 3%, named volume as the main variable and flagged early-buy promotional pricing as a mix headwind (slides, 28 October 2026).
- The price sits above most post-report targets. Goldman Sachs (Neutral) and Baird (Hold) raised targets to $16 from $14 after the 28 October 2026 report, and KeyBanc kept a Hold rating on 29 October 2026 (StockAnalysis ratings page). The 11 November 2026 close of $16.77 is above both $16 targets.
- Executives sold into the rally. Beyond the chief executive's 50,000-share sale on 2 November 2026, Chief Legal Officer Susan Canning sold 2,500 shares at $16.72 on 2 November 2026 and 4,500 shares at an average $15.78 on 29 October 2026 and 30 October 2026, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings).
- Europe is shrinking. Europe sales fell 18% in the third quarter, which the company attributed to lower volume tied to conflict in the Middle East (8-K, 28 October 2026).
- Cash generation weakened. Nine-month operating cash flow was $225.5 million, down from $283.0 million a year earlier, on collection and inventory timing and higher rebate payments (8-K, 28 October 2026).
- Rates work against pool spending. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% and oil topped $102 on 28 October 2026 (Benzinga market report). Higher yields raise financing costs for new pools and big-ticket repairs.
Price setup
The shares closed at $16.77 on 11 November 2026, 3.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.41 set on 1 July 2026. The 3-month change is 9.7% against the $15.29 close on 13 August 2026. The last close sits above both the 50-day moving average of $13.36 and the 200-day moving average of $14.56, as of 11 November 2026.
The run since October has been steep. The 52-week closing low was $11.35 on 9 October 2026, less than five weeks before the 11 November 2026 close. Since the report, closes have held in a narrow range: $16.98 on 4 November 2026, $16.24 on 6 November 2026 and $16.89 on 9 November 2026. A move through the $17.41 July high would put the shares at new 52-week highs with no company report scheduled to justify it; a drift back toward the 200-day average would be consistent with the lag call.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision. The yield path drives financing costs for new pools and big-ticket repairs, and it is the main outside driver for the shares while no company report is scheduled.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report with 2027 guidance. It shows whether early-buy orders became fourth-quarter sales inside or above the flat-to-up-3% guidance, and what 2027 guidance implies for price and volume.
What would change the view
A daily close above $18.28, over the $17.41 52-week high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the top of the flat-to-up-3% guidance would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares trade with residential pool and outdoor-living demand. That ties them to Pool Corporation (POOL), the largest pool-supply distributor, to Latham Group (SWIM), a pool manufacturer, and to mortgage and home-equity rates. A rise in long-term yields would weigh on the shares regardless of Hayward's own results. Europe exposure adds sensitivity to Middle East conflict and oil prices, as the 18% third-quarter Europe decline reported on 28 October 2026 showed.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter net sales rose 6% to $260.1 million; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.18, up 29%, and adjusted EBITDA was $64.5 million at a 24.8% margin. Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- North America sales rose 8.7% to $226.4 million, with net price adding 7% and volume 2%; Europe sales fell 18%. Hayward Q3 2026 earnings slides · as of
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $0.86–$0.88 from $0.84–$0.87; net sales growth guidance raised to about 5%–6% from about 5%. Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 net sales guided flat to up 3%, with early-buy promotional pricing flagged as a mix headwind. Hayward Q3 2026 earnings slides · as of
- Net leverage fell to 1.5x, the lowest since the 2021 IPO; year-to-date buybacks totalled $115.3 million with $331 million left under the $450 million authorization. Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release and slides · as of
- Nine-month operating cash flow was $225.5 million, down from $283.0 million a year earlier. Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- CEO Kevin Holleran exercised 50,000 options at $1.40 and sold 50,000 shares at $16.55 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 3 November 2026 · as of
- Goldman Sachs (Neutral) and Baird (Hold) raised targets to $16 from $14 after the Q3 report; Stifel maintained Buy with a $20 target on 11 November 2026. StockAnalysis HAYW ratings page · as of
Sources
- Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) · stockanalysis.com
- Hayward Holdings Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Increases 2026 Guidance · finviz.com
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