MIR · Mirion Technologies

The thesis

Mirion Technologies' shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months, because nuclear power orders doubled in the third quarter and backlog reached $1.25 billion. The fourth-quarter report, expected in mid-February 2027, settles whether that order book becomes revenue at better margins.

The rating is Medium because the order evidence is strong but the path for margins is not settled. On the 28 October 2026 earnings call, Chief Executive Thomas Logan withdrew the 30% adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin target for 2028. At Baird's Global Industrial Conference on 10 November 2026, management explained the withdrawal, according to Investing.com's account of the presentation. It cited about $10 million a year of spending on AI and Cybersecurity, the ramp of Paragon's reactor protection systems and a mix headwind from Medical. Management expects margin gains of about 1 point a year "or better" and said sharper guidance comes in early 2027.

The shares gave back most of their early-November gain without new company news. They closed at $19.26 on 10 November 2026, $17.70 on 11 November 2026 and $17.95 on 12 November 2026. TokenPost reported on 11 November 2026 that the midday slide followed gains earlier in the week, and it cited no company event.

Mirion makes radiation detection, measurement and dosimetry equipment for nuclear plants, defense, laboratories and radiation therapy. At the Baird conference, management said its instruments are in more than 98% of the operating reactor fleet. It added that about 80% of nuclear power revenue comes from that installed base.

The price reflects the margin reset more than the order growth. At $17.95 on 12 November 2026, the shares stood 35.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $28.00 and below MarketBeat's $24.88 consensus target of 5 November 2026.

Bullish and bearish views on Mirion Technologies, Inc.

The bull case on Mirion Technologies, Inc. (MIR), in brief: Nuclear power orders more than doubled. The bear case: the 2028 margin target is gone.

Bull case

• Nuclear power orders more than doubled. Third-quarter nuclear power orders rose 105%, according to the 27 October 2026 results release. Orders excluding Paragon and Certrec's July results were $340 million, up 62% from $209 million; including them, orders were $386 million, up 85%.
• Backlog covers the fourth quarter. Management said on the 28 October 2026 call that backlog was $1.25 billion, up from $816 million a year earlier. It expects $292 million to convert in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $443 million in 2027, and said 95% of the revenue guidance midpoint is covered.
• New-build reactor orders are arriving. At Baird on 10 November 2026, management said it booked a large order for two utility-scale reactors in Egypt and expects an order tied to six new EPR reactors in France, pending European Union approval. On the 28 October 2026 call, it said two French new-build awards above $80 million came in September and enter backlog once that approval arrives.
• Small modular reactors are a growing slice. Revenue tied to small modular reactors rose to about 4% of the total from just over 1% a year earlier, management said at Baird on 10 November 2026.
• Growth and cash guidance rose. On 27 October 2026, Mirion raised 2026 organic revenue growth guidance to about 7%–8% from 5%–7%, and adjusted free cash flow guidance to about $170–185 million from $155–175 million. Benzinga put the new $1.147–1.157 billion sales range above the $1.139 billion consensus.
• Medical earns higher margins. The Medical segment posted $84 million of third-quarter revenue, up 6.7% organically, at a 37.8% margin, per the 28 October 2026 call. At Baird, management raised growth guidance for radiation therapy quality assurance to high single digits, and Sun Nuclear launched its Simon command center on 3 November 2026.
• The finance chief bought shares. Chief Financial Officer Brian Schopfer bought 20,000 shares in the open market at $15.60 on 2 September 2026, according to his SEC Form 4 filing.
• Analyst targets sit above the price. MarketBeat's consensus target was $24.88 on 5 November 2026, from ten firms: one Strong Buy, seven Buy and two Hold. B. Riley reiterated its Buy rating with a $25 target on 29 October 2026.

Bear case

• The 2028 margin target is gone. Logan withdrew the 30% target on the 28 October 2026 call. The replacement estimate of about 1 point a year or better has no formal plan behind it until guidance in early 2027 and an investor day later that year.
• Margin guidance moved down. On 27 October 2026, Mirion narrowed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to about $285–292 million from $285–300 million, and the margin range fell to 24.7%–25.2% from 25.0%–26.0%.
• A Paragon product line dilutes margins. Management said at Baird on 10 November 2026 that Paragon's reactor protection systems line is a margin-dilutive investment until beyond 2028.
• Organic growth trails reported growth. Third-quarter revenue rose 24.5% to $277.8 million, but organic growth, which strips out acquisitions, was 6.5%. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.12, flat year over year, per the results release.
• The fourth quarter carries the year. The 7%–8% full-year organic guidance requires fourth-quarter organic growth in the mid-to-high teens, per the 28 October 2026 call. Benzinga put the narrowed $0.50–0.54 adjusted earnings-per-share range at or below the $0.54 estimate on 27 October 2026.
• Targets have come down. B. Riley cut its target to $25 from $27 on 29 October 2026, after the third-quarter report.
• Debt and convertibles weigh on equity. Mirion carried $757.6 million of convertible debt at 30 September 2026, per its third-quarter filing, and conversion would add shares.

Price setup

The shares closed at $17.95 on 12 November 2026, in adjusted daily closes. That sits almost exactly on the 200-day moving average of $17.94 and above the 50-day moving average of $16.29, both as of that close. The 3-month change is 13.0%, from $15.89 on 14 August 2026.

The early-November run was fast and has partly reversed. The shares rose from $17.13 on 5 November 2026 to $19.48 on 9 November 2026, when they crossed above the 200-day average on 5,656,887 shares of volume, according to a MarketBeat-syndicated report. They fell to $17.70 on 11 November 2026 and closed at $17.95 on 12 November 2026.

The range the case turns on runs from the 52-week closing low of $14.12 on 30 September 2026 to the 52-week intraday high of $28.00 on 12 November 2025. Closes that hold above the 200-day average keep the recovery from the September low in place. The 50-day average is the next level below.

Recent SEC Form 4 filings show no insider sales: the latest are director grants of 1,333 shares each at $14.34 on 30 September 2026 and the finance chief's 2 September 2026 purchase. Conestoga Capital Advisors sold 277,800 shares, according to a 5 November 2026 MarketBeat report on its filing.

Catalysts ahead

• ~11 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report, with 2027 guidance. Shows whether fourth-quarter organic growth reached the guided mid-to-high teens and whether 2027 margin guidance delivers the roughly 1 point a year or better of expansion management described.
• 2027 (date not set): Investor day with an updated long-range plan. Replaces the withdrawn 30% margin target for 2028 with formal figures and shows how much margin the nuclear order book can support.
• Date not announced: European Union approval for the French EPR new-build program. Would move the two French awards above $80 million into backlog and open the expected order tied to six new EPR reactors.

What would change the view

A daily close below $15.00, under the 50-day moving average and near the September closing low, which would erase the recovery that followed the third-quarter report. Fourth-quarter organic growth well short of the guided mid-to-high teens would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Orders turn into revenue more slowly than guided, and the back-loaded fourth quarter falls short. Confirmed by: a 2026 organic growth total below the 7%-8% guidance in the February 2027 report.
• Margins keep slipping as acquisitions, the Paragon product ramp and Medical mix weigh on profitability. Confirmed by: an adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026 below 24.7%, 2027 margin guidance below the 2026 range, or a long-range plan with less than 1 point of annual expansion.
• Leverage and convertible debt limit flexibility or lead to dilution. Confirmed by: net leverage reported well above the guided 2.6 times at year-end 2026, or new equity or convertible issuance.
• Nuclear power demand slows as reactor restarts or new-build projects slip. Confirmed by: announced delays or cancellations of US or European reactor projects, a stalled EU approval for the French EPR program, another de-booking like the Chinese project removed in the third quarter, or slower nuclear order growth.
• Analysts keep cutting targets as the margin reset feeds into 2027 estimates. Confirmed by: further price-target cuts from covering firms after the February 2027 report, or a consensus target falling toward the share price.

What it trades with

Nuclear power is about half of revenue, management said at Baird on 10 November 2026. That ties the shares to utility spending on the operating reactor fleet, life extensions, power uprates, reactor restarts and new-build projects, including small modular reactors. Shifts in sentiment toward nuclear power names tend to move Mirion alongside them.

Medical, about 30% of revenue per the same presentation, depends on hospital and cancer-center capital budgets, which follow a different cycle. Leverage and $757.6 million of convertible debt at 30 September 2026 leave the shares sensitive to interest-rate moves and credit conditions.