NXH · Bed Bath & Beyond
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1.67
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
24.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1.67, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 70.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1.67, the 5 November 2026 close on the day of the third-quarter results, which would show the shares leading again. A raised 2027 revenue outlook above the $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion range would also show that.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 509
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +98.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 34.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −12.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −139
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −112
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −100.3
All filed numbers
What Bed Bath & Beyond reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 509 | +98.0 | 34.0 | −12.2 |
| first filed | 361 | +28.0 | 26.8 | −11.9 |
| first filed | 248 | +6.9 | 23.9 | −7.3 |
| first filed | 273 | −9.8 | 24.6 | −4.8 |
| first filed | 257 | −17.4 | 25.3 | −4.8 |
| first filed restated | 282 | −29.1 | 23.7 | −4.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −45.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −103 | −26.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +57.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −125 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 14.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −139 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 100 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt and finance leases plus short-term borrowings | 213 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −112 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +33.5% on a year | 47.8 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 50.5 |
| Inventory ($M) | 228 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 292 |
| Market value ($M) | 139 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 251 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −100.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.6 days of average trading to cover, +25.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $1.0M | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.5M | $63K |
The thesis
Neighborhood Intelligence, formerly Bed Bath & Beyond, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Most of its growth was bought, it still loses money, and the share count is set to rise. The 2027 revenue target of $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion and the quarterly loss rate settle whether the turnaround funds itself.
Third-quarter revenue was $509.3 million, reported on 5 November 2026 (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1). That sits inside the company's $505 million to $525 million guidance range but near the floor. The release attributes $229 million of the year-over-year revenue gain to acquisitions and $23 million to the core business. Net loss was $26.1 million, or $0.28 per share.
The market has marked the shares down since the report. They closed at $1.71 on 4 November 2026, $1.51 on 9 November 2026 and $1.36 on both 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026. The $1.36 close is a 52-week closing low and sits 69.4% below the close of 13 August 2026 ($4.44). Company news lists a Maxim Group downgrade to Hold on 9 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.
The bull case on Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NXH), in brief: revenue landed inside guidance. The bear case: growth depends on acquisitions.
Bull case
- Revenue landed inside guidance. Third-quarter revenue of $509.3 million was up 98.0% from a year earlier (5 November 2026 release). The result met a guidance range of $505 million to $525 million.
- Gross margin widened sharply. Gross profit was $172.9 million, about 34% of revenue, against 25.3% a year earlier (Form 10-Q for the period ended 30 September 2026).
- The 2027 targets are specific. The release guides 2027 revenue to $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion at a 33% to 34% gross margin. It targets positive cash flow by the second half of 2027.
- Cost cuts are continuing. The 5 October 2026 business update reported more than $50 million of selling, general and administrative savings this year and at least $30 million more identified (Form 8-K).
- An insider bought in the offering. Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Marcus Lemonis bought 362,319 shares at $2.76 on 6 October 2026 (SEC Form 4). That price is double the 11 November 2026 close.
- Short interest is high. StockAnalysis listed 13.01 million shares sold short, 13.64% of shares outstanding, on 21 October 2026. A rally would force some of those positions to close.
Bear case
- Growth depends on acquisitions. Of the quarter's revenue gain, $229 million came from acquired businesses and $23 million from the core business (5 November 2026 release). Core growth at that pace does not reach the 2027 target on its own.
- The company still loses money. Third-quarter net loss was $26.1 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization was negative $26.5 million. Nine-month free cash flow was negative $130.4 million (5 November 2026 release).
- Cash is thin against the burn. Cash and equivalents were $100.4 million and restricted cash $26.8 million at 30 September 2026 (Form 10-Q). The $45.5 million equity financing closed on 6 October 2026. Inventory was $227.8 million, with $118 million of asset-based loan borrowings against it.
- Dilution is built in. The October financing carries warrants for up to 16,123,189 shares at a $3.45 exercise price, exercisable six months after issuance (Form 424B5). Shares outstanding were 98.626 million at 30 September 2026. Stockholders approved conversion-share issuance for the 5.00% senior notes due 2033 on 24 September 2026.
- No fourth-quarter guidance was given. The 5 November 2026 release has no fourth-quarter revenue range, so the next measured test is the full-year report.
- Deals and finance leadership keep changing. The F9 purchase agreement ended in September and the Fathom Holdings merger ended on 5 October 2026. An interim chief financial officer was appointed on 5 October 2026 (Form 8-K).
Price setup
The shares closed at $1.36 on 11 November 2026, equal to the 52-week closing low set on 10 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $7.72, reached on 22 January 2026. The last close is 82.4% below it.
The 50-day average of adjusted closes was $2.41 and the 200-day average $4.49 as of 11 November 2026. The shares trade below both. The 3-month price change is −69.4%.
The October financing priced at $2.76 per share, and the warrant exercise price is $3.45. Both sit well above the 11 November 2026 close.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected completion of store closures. Execution of the closures and the $30 million of identified savings sets the pace of the quarterly loss.
- ~6 April 2027 (est.): October financing warrants become exercisable. Exercise at the $3.45 strike would add up to 16,123,189 shares, but only if the shares trade above that price.
What would change the view
A daily close above $1.67, the 5 November 2026 close on the day of the third-quarter results, which would show the shares leading again. A raised 2027 revenue outlook above the $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion range would also show that.
What it trades with
The shares move on company-specific financing, acquisition and turnaround news. No current theme group carries the name. Home-goods and discretionary retail demand sets the revenue backdrop. Small-cap retail stocks with high short interest tend to move together on risk appetite. Only a handful of sessions have traded since the report, a sample too small to draw a conclusion about how the market is reading it.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter revenue was $509.3 million, up 98.0% year over year; gross profit $172.9 million (about 34% of revenue); net loss $26.1 million, or $0.28 per share. Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 earnings release, SEC EDGAR · as of
- Revenue growth drew $229 million from acquisitions and $23 million from the core business. Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 earnings release, SEC EDGAR · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $100.4 million and restricted cash $26.8 million; inventories $227.8 million; nine-month free cash flow was negative $130.4 million. Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 and Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR · as of
- The company guided full-year 2027 revenue to $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion at a 33% to 34% gross margin and targeted positive cash flow by the second half of 2027; no fourth-quarter guidance was given. Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 earnings release, SEC EDGAR · as of
- A $45.5 million equity financing priced at $2.76 per share with warrants at a $3.45 exercise price for up to 16,123,189 shares closed on 6 October 2026. Company press release, Form 424B5 · as of
- Marcus Lemonis, Executive Chairman and CEO, made an open-market purchase of 362,319 shares at $2.76. SEC Form 4 · as of
- Neighborhood Intelligence and Fathom Holdings mutually terminated their merger agreement. Form 8-K and joint press release, SEC EDGAR · as of
- Short interest was 13.01 million shares, 13.64% of shares outstanding. StockAnalysis, NXH statistics · as of
Sources
- NEIGHBORHOOD INTELLIGENCE, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- NEIGHBORHOOD INTELLIGENCE, INC. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Neighborhood Intelligence Statistics · stockanalysis.com