POOL · Pool
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $264.56
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $264.56, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 14.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $264.56, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (11 February 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,505
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +3.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 29.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 11.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 442
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,061
- Price to earnings (×)
- 19.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.6
All filed numbers
What Pool reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,505 | +3.7 | 29.0 | 11.4 |
| first filed | 1,823 | +2.2 | 29.7 | 14.7 |
| first filed | 1,138 | +6.2 | 29.0 | 7.3 |
| first filed | 982 | −0.5 | 30.1 | 5.3 |
| first filed | 1,451 | +1.3 | 29.6 | 12.3 |
| first filed | 1,785 | +0.8 | 30.0 | 15.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 160 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 396 | 123 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −3.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 500 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 58.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 442 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 106 |
| Debt ($M) | 1,167 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,061 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 136 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,185 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,227 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,723 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,784 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 19.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.7 days of average trading to cover, −1.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $7.7M | $1.9M |
The thesis
Pool Corporation's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. They closed at $221.05 on 9 November 2026. That is above the average analyst target and above four of the five broker targets set after a third quarter in which earnings per share (EPS) were flat. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 18 February 2027, and its first 2027 outlook will show whether the recovery case has earnings behind it.
Pool is the largest US wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies. The recovery case rests on pricing, steady maintenance demand and tighter inventory. The 22 October 2026 third-quarter 8-K showed net sales of $1.505 billion, up 4%, with price contributing 3 points. Diluted EPS was flat at $3.40, and gross margin fell 60 basis points to 29.0%. The company confirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17.
The story is well known. The rally carried the shares from $211.70 on 6 November 2026 to $221.05 on 9 November 2026, but no business result has come out since the 22 October 2026 report. The only company news since then is the $1.30 dividend declared on 28 October 2026 and a 3 November 2026 release listing two investor conferences.
Bullish and bearish views on Pool Corporation
The bull case on Pool Corporation (POOL), in brief: cash generation improved sharply this year. The bear case: earnings growth has stalled.
Bull case
- Cash generation improved sharply this year. Operating cash flow for the year through 30 September 2026 rose 47% to $419.8 million from $285.7 million, per the third-quarter 8-K.
- Inventory fell while sales grew. Inventory was $1.185 billion on 30 September 2026, down 3% from a year earlier, while nine-month sales rose 4% to $4.466 billion.
- The third quarter beat estimates. Adjusted EPS of $3.40 topped the $3.35 consensus, and sales of $1.505 billion topped the $1.474 billion estimate, per Benzinga on 22 October 2026.
- Capital returns continue. Pool returned $338.1 million in the year through 30 September 2026, including $198.0 million of buybacks. The $1.30 quarterly dividend declared on 28 October 2026 is 4% above the $1.25 paid a year earlier.
- Rates eased into the report. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5% on 22 October 2026, per Benzinga. Lower borrowing costs help pool construction and remodels paid for with loans.
Bear case
- Earnings growth has stalled. Third-quarter diluted EPS was flat at $3.40, and net income fell 3% to $123.0 million, per the 22 October 2026 8-K.
- Margins are slipping. Gross margin fell to 29.0% from 29.6%, which management attributed to inbound freight and customer mix. Selling and administrative expenses rose 5% to $264.1 million, faster than sales.
- The price has passed most targets. The $221.05 close on 9 November 2026 is above the targets of DA Davidson ($200), Wells Fargo ($190), Deutsche Bank ($183) and Stifel ($175), all set between 20 October 2026 and 23 October 2026. Only Stephens, at $230, is higher. Investing.com puts the average 12-month target at $209.33.
- Volume growth is thin. Price supplied 3 of the 4 points of third-quarter sales growth. The number of sales centers fell to 454 on 30 September 2026 from 456 at the start of the year.
- Debt rose to fund returns. Total debt rose $104.9 million to about $1.17 billion in the nine months to 30 September 2026, per the 8-K.
Price setup
The shares closed at $221.05 on 9 November 2026, 16.9% below the 52-week closing high of 11 February 2026 and 11.6% above the close three months earlier. The rally started from a $161.87 close on 30 September 2026, near the 52-week low.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was 78.1 on 9 November 2026, up from 76.6 on 6 November 2026. Readings above 70 mark a stretched short-term advance. Several signs of crowding are visible. RSI is high, the price is above the average analyst target, and no earnings report is due until February. The shares are also near the record date for the dividend.
Two nearby prices help read the chart. The first is $184, a level whose loss would erase more than half of the rally from the 30 September 2026 low. The second is the 52-week closing high of 11 February 2026, about 20% above the 9 November 2026 close.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Stephens Annual Investment Conference appearance. This is a second chance for management to signal where 2026 adjusted EPS will land within the $10.87 to $11.17 guidance range.
- ~18 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report, with the first 2027 outlook. The 2027 EPS outlook shows whether pricing, maintenance demand and cost control can bring back earnings growth after a flat third quarter in 2026.
Elapsed catalysts
- 10 November 2026: Baird 2026 Global Industrial Conference appearance. This is the first new business information since 22 October 2026. Management may update fourth-quarter demand, freight costs and margin trends ahead of the February report. (passed)
- 11 November 2026: Record date for the $1.30 quarterly dividend, payable 25 November 2026. This routine capital-return event confirms the 4% higher dividend. It does not test the earnings recovery case. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $264.56, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (11 February 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Pool trades with pool-industry peers such as Hayward Holdings (HAYW) and Latham Group (SWIM). All three depend on the same homeowner spending on maintenance, remodels and new pools. The Cyclical industrials group was accelerating in the 1 November 2026 and 8 November 2026 readings and was maturing by 10 November 2026. A cooling group raises the bar for a single-name rally that has no new earnings behind it.
Pool's demand for new construction and remodeling is sensitive to rates. The 10-year Treasury yield falling below 5% on 22 October 2026 coincided with the post-report move. A yield back above 5% would weigh on the whole group.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter net sales $1.505B, up 4% from $1.451B; price contributed 3 points of growth. Pool Corporation Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Third-quarter gross margin 29.0%, down 60 basis points from 29.6% a year earlier. Pool Corporation Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Third-quarter diluted EPS $3.40, flat year over year; operating income $172.2M, down 3%. Pool Corporation Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance confirmed at $10.87 to $11.17; GAAP guidance $10.66 to $10.96. Pool Corporation Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Year-to-date operating cash flow $419.8M, up 47% from $285.7M; inventory $1.185B, down 3% year over year. Pool Corporation Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Stephens raised its target to $230 (Buy); Wells Fargo raised to $190 (Equal-Weight); DA Davidson cut to $200 (Neutral); Deutsche Bank raised to $183 (Hold). Benzinga analyst ratings; MarketScreener · as of
- Stifel cut its price target to $175 with a Hold rating. Benzinga · as of
- Pool is scheduled to present at the Baird Global Industrial Conference on 10 November 2026 and the Stephens Annual Investment Conference on 17 November 2026. Pool Corporation press release via GlobeNewswire · as of
Sources
- Pool Corporation Announces Upcoming Investor Conference Participation · globenewswire.com ·
- Latest news about Pool Corporation · marketscreener.com
- Pool Corporation (POOL) · uk.investing.com
- Pool Corporation announces Quarterly dividend, payable on November 25, 2026 · marketscreener.com
- Stephens Announces 28th Annual Investment Conference · financialcontent.com
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