ROG · Rogers
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $160.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $160.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 13.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $160.00, which would put the shares well above their recent range and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the $225 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 236
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +9.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 34.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 12.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 97.0
- Price to earnings (×)
- 49.4
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 4.3
All filed numbers
What Rogers reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 236 | +9.3 | 34.2 | 12.7 |
| first filed | 217 | +6.9 | 32.5 | 9.2 |
| first filed | 201 | +5.2 | 32.2 | 5.3 |
| first filed | 202 | +4.8 | 31.5 | 3.5 |
| first filed | 216 | +2.7 | 33.5 | 7.3 |
| first filed | 203 | −5.3 | 31.6 | −33.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 31.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 45.3 | 22.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 119 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 21.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 97.0 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 236 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 155 |
| Inventory ($M) | 131 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,222 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,236 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 49.4 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.4 days of average trading to cover, +12.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.6M |
The thesis
Rogers Corporation's engineered-materials business is recovering, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter guide steps down from the third quarter, and management does not expect data-center revenue before the second half of 2027. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 settles whether the core recovery holds.
The company reported third-quarter 2026 net sales of $236.1 million on 27 October 2026, up 9.3% year on year, inside the guided $233–243 million but under the $238 million consensus estimate (Benzinga). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.39 against a $1.19 consensus estimate.
The shares closed at $130.89 on 11 November 2026, 22.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $169.00 set on 22 June 2026 and 5.0% lower over three months. That price already reflects a profit beat that did not lift the stock and an analyst target cut: B. Riley lowered its target to $180 from $195 on 9 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Rogers Corporation
The bull case on Rogers Corporation (ROG), in brief: profit beat the guided range. The bear case: fourth-quarter sales step down.
Bull case
- Profit beat the guided range. Adjusted EPS were $1.39 against $0.90 a year earlier, and GAAP diluted EPS were $1.26 on net income of $22.6 million (company 8-K, 27 October 2026).
- Margins reached a multi-year high. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 28% to $47.7 million, a 20.2% margin the company called its highest since 2021. Gross margin was 34.2%, up from 33.5% a year earlier (results release, 27 October 2026).
- Fourth-quarter guidance topped consensus on earnings. Rogers guided sales to $215–225 million and adjusted EPS to $0.90–1.10, against estimates of $218.9 million and $0.90 (Benzinga, 27 October 2026). Fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS were $0.89.
- The balance sheet is liquid. Cash was $206.1 million and short-term investments $30.3 million at quarter end, and the company repurchased $9.3 million of stock in the quarter (results release, 27 October 2026).
- Analysts still rate it Buy. Freedom Capital Markets maintained Buy and raised its target to $190 on 28 October 2026 (Benzinga). B. Riley kept its Buy and set a $180 target on 9 November 2026 (MarketBeat).
Bear case
- Fourth-quarter sales step down. The $215–225 million guide sits below the $236.1 million reported for the third quarter, and the guided gross margin of 32.5%–33.5% is under the 34.2% just delivered (company 8-K, 27 October 2026).
- Third-quarter sales missed the consensus. Reported sales of $236.1 million fell short of the $238 million estimate (Benzinga, 27 October 2026), and raw-material costs partly offset the margin gain, according to the results release.
- A sharp drop followed the report. The shares closed at $115.74 on 5 November 2026, down 10.07% from $128.70 the session before, on 297,007 shares traded (TipRanks historical prices). No company announcement or SEC filing that explains the move appears in company news or the filing list.
- Analyst targets are drifting lower. B. Riley cut its target to $180 from $195 on 9 November 2026, and had set $225 on 1 October 2026, within days of the investor day.
- The big growth is years away. Management expects data-center revenue to begin in the second half of 2027 (30 September 2026 investor day), and the 2030 plan needs more than $450 million of sales from newer markets. No named data-center program had been announced as of the 27 October 2026 report.
Price setup
The shares closed at $130.89 on 11 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $136.18 and above the 200-day average of $128.94 (adjusted daily closes). The 3-month reference close was $137.71 on 13 August 2026.
Recent closes show a sharp drop and partial recovery: $128.70 on 4 November 2026, $115.74 on 5 November 2026, $121.96 on 6 November 2026, $128.48 on 9 November 2026, $128.28 on 10 November 2026 and $130.89 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $75.56 on 20 November 2025, and the 52-week intraday high is $169.00 on 22 June 2026.
The shares trade between the 200-day average and the 50-day average. Neither the 5 November 2026 low close nor the 52-week high is near the last close, so the three-month call turns on the fourth-quarter guide rather than on a chart level.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Tests the guided $215–225 million of sales and $0.90–1.10 adjusted EPS, and shows whether gross margin holds inside the 32.5%–33.5% guide.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Management's window for first data-center design wins, about two quarters after the 30 September 2026 investor day. A named data-center program would be the first hard evidence for the more than $450 million new-market sales target in the 2030 plan.
What would change the view
A daily close above $160.00, which would put the shares well above their recent range and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the $225 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Rogers sells engineered materials into electric vehicles, industrial equipment, electronics and, later, data centers. Its sales follow industrial and auto production cycles more than software or chip-design spending.
The shares rose 10.73% on the 30 September 2026 investor day and gave the whole move back by 30 October 2026. The further 10% single-day fall on 5 November 2026 came with no company disclosure, which points to company-specific repricing rather than a broad sector move.
Rogers Corporation (NYSE: ROG) is a different company from Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI). Search results and earnings calendars mix the two.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $236.1 million, up 9.3% year on year; adjusted EPS were $1.39 against $0.90 a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA rose 28% to $47.7 million. Rogers Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K · as of
- Third-quarter gross margin was 34.2% versus 33.5% a year earlier; cash was $206.1 million and share repurchases were $9.3 million in the quarter. Rogers Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: net sales $215–225 million, gross margin 32.5%–33.5%, adjusted EPS $0.90–1.10. Rogers Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.39 beat the $1.19 estimate and sales of $236.1 million missed the $238 million estimate; fourth-quarter estimates were $0.90 EPS and $218.9 million of sales. Benzinga · as of
- Freedom Capital Markets maintained Buy and raised its price target to $190. Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- B. Riley Securities maintained Buy and lowered its price target to $180 from $195. MarketBeat, 9 November 2026 B. Riley note · as of
- Shares closed at $115.74 on 5 November 2026, down 10.07% from $128.70 the prior session, on 297,007 shares traded. TipRanks historical prices · as of
- 2030 targets: revenue $1.5 billion, 26% adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted EPS $14.00; 2028 targets: revenue $1.0–1.1 billion, adjusted EPS $5.50–6.50. Rogers investor day press release · as of
Sources
- Rogers (NYSE:ROG) Stock Price Target Lowered at B. Riley Financial · marketbeat.com ·
- Rogers (ROG) Stock Historical Prices · tipranks.com
- MarketBeat ·
- Rogers Corp (ROG) Stock Price, Quote, News & History · benzinga.com