SOFI · SoFi Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $17.37
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating cut from Medium to Low. Industry data, 10 November 2026: October consumer prices rose 0.4% and core prices 0.3% month on month, above the 0.3% and 0.2% expected, and CME FedWatch then priced a 15.3% chance of a half-point December Fed hike alongside 84.7% for a quarter point.
Price against the kill line
11.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $17.37, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are down 15.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $17.37, the 200-day moving average as of 12 November 2026, which would show the shares recovering despite expectations of a December hike. A 2027 outlook raised above about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Net income, latest quarter ($M)
- 241
- Net income, four quarters ($M)
- 738
- Shareholders' equity ($M)
- 11,295
- Price to earnings (×)
- 27.1
- Price to book value (×)
- 1.8
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 163
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +4.2
- Market value ($M)
- 20,013
SoFi Technologies is a bank: net cash, enterprise value and free cash flow are not shown, because a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
All filed numbers
What SoFi Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 163 | +4.2 | −28.4 |
| first filed | 154 | +1.1 | −30.3 |
| first filed | 130 | −7.7 | −32.1 |
| first filed | 170 | +25.7 | 5.1 |
| first filed | 157 | +19.5 | −3.0 |
| first filed | 152 | +25.8 | 1.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 318 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 738 | 241 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +5.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −10,209 |
| Capital spending ($M) four quarters to 30 June 2026, filed 6 August 2026 | 291 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,810 |
| Debt ($M) | 3,863 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −17.8% on a year | 7.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 11,295 |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
| Market value ($M) | 20,013 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 27.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 16.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.8 days of average trading to cover, +2.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $853K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2.5M | $11.7M |
The thesis
SoFi Technologies' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A hotter October inflation report on 10 November 2026 made a December Federal Reserve rate hike close to certain and opened the door to a half-point move. SoFi trades as a lender that is sensitive to interest rates. The Fed decision on 9 December 2026 and the fourth-quarter report, expected around late January 2027, will settle the call.
The business case still holds. SoFi's 2027 outlook calls for about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue. On 27 October 2026, Benzinga put consensus at $5.991 billion. The third-quarter 10-Q, filed 5 November 2026, shows lower reported personal-loan charge-offs. The rating is Low because the rate outlook got worse on 10 November 2026, and the shares fell after that report even though SoFi published no news of substance.
The October consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month on month against 0.3% expected. Core prices rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, InvestmentNews reported on 10 November 2026. After the release, CME FedWatch put the chance of a quarter-point December hike at 84.7% and of a half-point hike at 15.3%, up from 1.4% that morning. The shares closed at $16.75 on 9 November 2026, the session before the report, and at $15.63 on 12 November 2026. SoFi's only announcement in that span was a golf-league sponsorship on 11 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on SoFi Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI), in brief: revenue growth sped up again. The bear case: inflation beat forecasts for a second month.
Bull case
- Revenue growth sped up again. Adjusted net revenue rose 44% year on year to $1.371 billion in the third quarter of 2026, after 40% growth in the second quarter. Benzinga put consensus at $1.256 billion (SoFi 8-K, 27 October 2026).
- 2027 outlook is above estimates. SoFi guides 2027 to about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue, $2.24 billion of adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and $0.90 of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Benzinga put consensus at $5.991 billion and $0.81 on 27 October 2026.
- Profit grew faster than revenue. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $469.8 million, up 70% from $276.9 million a year earlier. Net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $241.0 million, or $0.18 per diluted share against $0.11 (27 October 2026 release).
- Loan-sale-adjusted credit also improved. With sales of late-stage delinquent loans added back, the personal-loan charge-off rate was about 3.4%. The company said that was 30 basis points better than the second quarter (27 October 2026 release).
- Deposits fund growth without new stock. The 10-Q shows deposits of $51.325 billion at 30 September 2026, against $37.505 billion at 31 December 2025. Its equity statement shows 3,209,206 shares issued in the first nine months of 2026, against 82,733,817 in the same period of 2025.
- The top analyst targets sit well above the price. Scotiabank reaffirmed its Buy rating and $26 target on 9 November 2026, according to fiscal.ai. StoneX raised its target to $27 with a Buy rating on 28 October 2026 (Benzinga).
Bear case
- Inflation beat forecasts for a second month. October CPI rose 0.4% at the headline level and 0.3% at the core level, against forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2% (InvestmentNews, 10 November 2026). On 14 October 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026.
- Markets fully expect a December hike. After the October report, CME FedWatch put the chance of a quarter-point hike on 9 December 2026 at 84.7% and of a half-point hike at 15.3% (InvestmentNews, 10 November 2026). Higher rates raise SoFi's deposit costs and can reduce outside demand for its loans.
- Balance growth flatters the charge-off ratio. The 10-Q credits the lower personal-loan ratio of 2.26%, against 2.60% a year earlier, to higher average balances. Personal-loan net charge-offs rose to $174.0 million from $137.3 million, on average balances of $30.613 billion against $20.964 billion.
- Most of Wall Street rates it Hold. MarketBeat's consensus was Hold with a $21.27 average target on 5 November 2026. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its target to $15 with an Underperform rating that day, and Truist raised its target to $17 with a Hold rating on 3 November 2026.
- Guidance is all adjusted. SoFi gives its 2026 and 2027 outlooks in non-GAAP terms only. Full-year 2026 guidance is about $5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue and about $0.61 of adjusted EPS (27 October 2026 release).
Price setup
The shares closed at $15.63 on 12 November 2026. On adjusted daily closes, that is below both the 50-day average of $16.24 and the 200-day moving average as of that session. The shares are down 14.5% over three months from the $18.29 close of 14 August 2026. The last close is 52.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $32.73, set on 12 November 2025.
Three closes mark the range the case turns on. The low end is the 52-week closing low of $14.22 on 14 October 2026, the day the September CPI was released. The close before the third-quarter report was $14.46 on 26 October 2026. The close before the October CPI report was $16.75 on 9 November 2026. Since then the shares have given back part of their post-report gain, but they remain above the pre-report close.
The price reflects doubt about the 2027 outlook. At $15.63 on 12 November 2026, the shares sat below every analyst target cited here except Keefe, Bruyette & Woods' $15. The stock also draws heavy retail attention: The Motley Fool ran "SoFi Stock Is Down 50% From Its High" on 6 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision. A hike, and especially a half-point hike, would raise SoFi's deposit costs and could reduce outside demand for its loans; a hold would remove the main pressure on the shares since the third-quarter report.
- ~29 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report. Shows whether SoFi keeps or raises the roughly $6.4 billion 2027 revenue outlook, and gives the next loan-sale-adjusted personal-loan charge-off rate and Loan Platform Business volume.
What would change the view
A daily close above $17.37, the 200-day moving average as of 12 November 2026, which would show the shares recovering despite expectations of a December hike. A 2027 outlook raised above about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
SoFi trades as a rate-sensitive consumer lender. Benzinga reported on 2 November 2026 that the shares rose as financial stocks climbed and falling oil prices eased worries about inflation and rates. The fall from $16.75 on 9 November 2026 to $15.63 on 12 November 2026 followed the hot October CPI, and SoFi had no news of substance in that span. In the near term, inflation reports and the Fed's decisions are likely to move the shares more than company news. Its own credit risk will show in the fourth-quarter report.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted net revenue was $1.371 billion, up 44% year on year; GAAP net income was $241.0 million and diluted EPS $0.18 versus $0.11 a year earlier. SoFi Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- 2027 outlook: about $6.4 billion adjusted net revenue, $2.24 billion adjusted EBITDA, $0.90 adjusted EPS, versus consensus of $5.991 billion and $0.81. SoFi Q3 2026 release; Benzinga · as of
- Personal-loan net charge-off ratio was 2.26% versus 2.60% a year earlier; net charge-offs were $174.0 million versus $137.3 million on average balances of $30.613 billion versus $20.964 billion. SoFi Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, filed 5 November 2026 · as of
- Personal-loan charge-off rate was about 3.4% with late-stage delinquent loan sales added back, 30 basis points better than the prior quarter. SoFi Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- October 2026 CPI rose 0.4% month on month (0.3% expected) and core CPI 0.3% (0.2% expected). InvestmentNews, 10 November 2026 · as of
- After the October CPI release, CME FedWatch priced an 84.7% chance of a quarter-point December hike and 15.3% for a half point, up from 1.4% that morning. InvestmentNews, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Scotiabank reaffirmed its Buy rating and $26 price target on SoFi Technologies. fiscal.ai, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its target to $15 from $16 (Underperform); Truist raised its target to $17 from $16 (Hold) on 3 November 2026; MarketBeat's consensus is Hold with a $21.27 average target. Timothy Sykes news; Benzinga; MarketBeat · as of
Sources
- CPI comes in hot, raising odds of a bigger-than-expected December rate hike · investmentnews.com ·
- SoFi Technologies, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- SOFI Stock Slips As Analyst Slashes Price Target To $15 · timothysykes.com
- SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) Stock Jumps 3.6% on Analyst Upgrade · marketbeat.com ·
- SoFi Stock Is Down 50% From Its High. Here's Why I'd Buy It Right Now · fool.com ·
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