SWKS · Skyworks Solutions
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $99.03
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
9.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $99.03, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 32.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $99.03, over the $93.24 52-week high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. December-quarter revenue above the $1.90 billion top of the guide would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 2 October 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,046
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −5.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 40.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 2.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 229
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 133
- Price to earnings (×)
- 122.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 5.3
All filed numbers
What Skyworks Solutions reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,046 | −5.0 | 40.9 | 2.1 |
| first filed | 935 | −3.1 | 40.1 | 5.2 |
| first filed | 944 | −1.0 | 40.8 | 4.5 |
| first filed | 1,035 | −3.1 | 41.3 | 10.0 |
| first filed | 1,100 | +7.3 | 40.7 | 10.1 |
| first filed | 965 | +6.6 | 41.6 | 11.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 9.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 172 | 23.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 3 July 2026, filed 28 July 2026; against the quarter to 27 June 2025 | +0.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 550 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 321 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 229 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,606 |
| Debt ($M) | 2,473 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 133 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 495 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,070 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 5,716 |
| Market value ($M) | 21,123 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 20,990 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 5.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 96.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 122.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.5 days of average trading to cover, −20.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $765K |
The thesis
Skyworks Solutions' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. The first combined outlook with Qorvo missed estimates, and the 29.3% three-month rally to a $90.03 close on 12 November 2026 has carried the shares above nearly every analyst target set since. The first full combined quarter, expected around February 2027, settles whether revenue and cost savings justify the move.
December-quarter guidance is $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion in revenue and $1.25 in adjusted earnings per share, against analyst estimates of $1.988 billion and $1.50 (Benzinga, 3 November 2026). The shares rose 6.0% on 11 November 2026 as semiconductor stocks rebounded after CoreWeave raised its full-year revenue guidance, and closed at $90.03 on 12 November 2026 (Rock and Turner market recap, 11 November 2026; adjusted daily closes). MarketBeat put the consensus rating at Hold and the consensus target at $77.94 on 12 November 2026.
The market has priced in a successful integration before any combined earnings exist: the 12 November 2026 close sits above the $77.94 consensus target and 3.4% below the 52-week high.
Bullish and bearish views on Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
The bull case on Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS), in brief: synergy targets were reaffirmed. The bear case: the first combined guide missed.
Bull case
- Synergy targets were reaffirmed. Skyworks still commits to $500 million or more of annual cost savings within 24 to 36 months of closing. It expects about $150 million of operating-expense savings in fiscal 2027 and an annualized run-rate of $250 million to $300 million at that year's end (Skyworks release, 3 November 2026).
- Legacy Skyworks revenue is steady. The fiscal fourth quarter ended 2 October 2026 brought revenue of $1,046 million and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted earnings per share of $1.28. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $3.96 billion (Skyworks release, 3 November 2026).
- Cash covers the new debt. Cash and marketable securities were $2,606.1 million against debt of $2,472.8 million on 2 October 2026 (Skyworks release, 3 November 2026).
- Chip-sector buying has returned. Skyworks rose 6.0% on 11 November 2026 while the S&P 500 gained 1.3% and Micron, Marvell and ON Semiconductor rose between 5.8% and 11.9% (Rock and Turner market recap). The shares then added 2.7% on 12 November 2026.
- Some analysts remain constructive. Morgan Stanley's target is $93, trimmed from $95 on 4 November 2026. JPMorgan raised its target to $77 from $65 with a Neutral rating on 10 November 2026, and TD Cowen raised its target to $75 from $65 on 4 November 2026 (Benzinga; MarketBeat).
Bear case
- The first combined guide missed. Revenue guidance of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion compares with a $1.988 billion estimate, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.25 compares with $1.50 (Benzinga, 3 November 2026).
- Targets sit below the share price. On 4 November 2026 Citigroup cut its target to $79 from $90, RBC to $80, and Susquehanna to $75 from $90. Bank of America kept Underperform with a $72 target. Barclays downgraded to Equal Weight on 5 November 2026 with a $79 target (Benzinga). Only Morgan Stanley's $93 sits above the $90.03 close.
- Earnings are diluted and interest costs are higher. The guidance assumes about 241 million diluted shares, against 151.5 million weighted in the fiscal fourth quarter, and about $50 million of other expense, mainly acquisition-financing interest (Skyworks release, 3 November 2026). Debt was $2,472.8 million on 2 October 2026, up from $995.8 million a year earlier.
- Reported revenue is lower than a year ago. The 10-K filed 10 November 2026 shows fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $1.05 billion against $1.10 billion in the same quarter a year earlier (SEC XBRL).
- Benefits arrive late. Synergies are weighted to the second half of fiscal 2027, so the December-quarter and March-quarter results carry integration costs first. Former Qorvo holders, who own about 37% of the combined company, received $32.50 in cash plus 0.960 Skyworks shares per Qorvo share at the 5 October 2026 closing.
Price setup
The shares closed at $90.03 on 12 November 2026, after $87.64 on 11 November 2026 and $82.71 on 10 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $93.24, set on 12 November 2026, and the last close is 3.4% below it. The three-month gain is 29.3%, measured from the 14 August 2026 close of $69.62.
The 50-day average is $83.57 and the 200-day average is $68.55, both as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $52.50, from 30 March 2026. Morgan Stanley's $93 target is the highest post-report target on record among the firms listed above.
Form 4 filings dated 12 November 2026 from CEO Philip Brace, CFO Philip Matthew Carter and two other officers report share awards dated 10 November 2026, shares withheld for tax at $82.71–$87.64, and option exercises on 11 November 2026 (SEC Form 4). MarketBeat reported on 12 November 2026 that volume was below the average at midday and named no company-specific cause for the day's gain.
Catalysts ahead
- ~9 December 2026 (est.): Federal Reserve policy meeting. Treasury yields have weighed on chip valuations and affect the cost of the acquisition debt.
- ~4 February 2027 (est.): First full combined quarter report. Shows whether revenue reaches the $1.80–1.90 billion guide and whether the planned cost savings begin to appear.
What would change the view
A daily close above $99.03, over the $93.24 52-week high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. December-quarter revenue above the $1.90 billion top of the guide would point the same way.
What it trades with
Skyworks trades with smartphone radio-frequency chip suppliers and with analog and mixed-signal semiconductor stocks. The 11 November 2026 gain came alongside a broad chip rebound led by memory and AI names, so the shares currently move with sector sentiment on AI spending as well as with handset demand. The merger removed Qorvo as a separate listing; Qorvo shares converted at the 5 October 2026 closing. Apple's product cycle remains the main handset-side driver. Treasury yields matter to chip valuations and to the cost of the acquisition debt.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal fourth quarter 2026 (ended 2 October 2026): revenue $1,046 million, GAAP diluted EPS $0.15, non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.28; fiscal 2026 revenue $3.96 billion. Skyworks fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- December-quarter guidance: revenue $1.80–1.90 billion and non-GAAP EPS $1.25 at the midpoint, versus analyst estimates of $1.988 billion and $1.50. Benzinga, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Skyworks expects about $150 million of operating-expense synergies in fiscal 2027 and a $250–300 million annualized run-rate at year-end; the $500 million or more target within 24–36 months is unchanged. Skyworks fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Debt was $2,472.8 million and cash and marketable securities $2,606.1 million on 2 October 2026; debt was $995.8 million a year earlier. Skyworks fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Citigroup cut its target to $79 from $90, RBC to $80, Susquehanna to $75 from $90; Bank of America kept Underperform with a $72 target; Morgan Stanley set $93 from $95. Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- Barclays downgraded Skyworks to Equal Weight with a $79 price target. Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- JPMorgan raised its price target to $77 from $65 and kept a Neutral rating; MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of Hold and a consensus target of $77.94. Benzinga headline 10 November 2026; MarketBeat 12 November 2026 · as of
- Skyworks rose 6.0% on 11 November 2026 as chip stocks rebounded after CoreWeave raised full-year revenue guidance; the S&P 500 rose 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.6%. Rock and Turner, The Market Today, 11 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Wed, Nov 11, 2026: The Market Today - by James Emanuel · rockandturner.substack.com ·
- Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) Stock Price Up 4.8% - Should You Buy? · marketbeat.com ·
- Finviz
- Skyworks Solutions Q4 2026: Qorvo deal reshapes the story · 247wallst.com
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