UPBD · Upbound Group
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $16.90
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
48.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $16.90, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 32.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $16.90, under the 28 October 2026 pre-report close of $16.91, which would erase the gain after the Q3 report. A clear year-over-year decline in Q4 Acima GMV against roughly flat guidance, or 2026 free cash flow below $250 million, would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,146
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −1.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 50.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 434
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −786
- Price to earnings (×)
- 13.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.5
All filed numbers
What Upbound Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,146 | −1.6 | 50.6 | 6.2 |
| first filed | 1,163 | +0.5 | 51.1 | 4.7 |
| first filed | 1,220 | +3.7 | 48.1 | 6.3 |
| first filed | 1,196 | +10.9 | 49.0 | 4.8 |
| first filed | 1,165 | +9.0 | 48.3 | 4.5 |
| first filed | 1,158 | +7.5 | 49.4 | 4.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 46.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 111 | 34.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 499 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 65.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 434 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 125 |
| Debt ($M) | 911 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −786 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 23 February 2026; −2.3% on a year | 63.5 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 750 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,463 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,249 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 8.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 13.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 29.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.2 days of average trading to cover, +1.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $1.8M | $189K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2.0M | $189K |
The thesis
Upbound Group's tighter lending at Acima, its lease-to-own unit, is raising profit and cash flow while lease volume shrinks, and Brigit, its cash-advance app, adds a faster-growing second engine. Executives kept buying shares as the price rose. The Q4 report, expected around late February 2027, settles the case by showing whether Acima volume levels off as management guided.
The rating is Medium because the Q3 results and continued insider buying support the case, while the price now sits close to analyst targets. The shares closed at $25.27 on 11 November 2026, near the 52-week intraday high of $25.36 set that day. That price reflects the Q3 beat and the insider buying already: it sits just below TD Cowen's $26 target (30 October 2026) and MarketBeat's $27.00 average target (5 November 2026), so further gains need the Q4 numbers to deliver.
Bullish and bearish views on Upbound Group, Inc.
The bull case on Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD), in brief: insiders kept buying at higher prices. The bear case: the price has reached analyst targets.
Bull case
- Insiders kept buying at higher prices. SEC Form 4 filings show CEO Fahmi Karam bought 4,407 shares at $22.71 on 3 November 2026, then 12,165 more at $24.66 on 5 November 2026. Chief Operating Officer Scott Young bought 6,015 shares at $24.95 on 9 November 2026, the highest price paid in the group.
- Buying spread across the leadership team. Form 4 filings show purchases on 2 November 2026 by Chief Financial Officer Halim Khouri (11,000 shares at $22.78), directors Glenn Marino (17,400 at $22.61) and Jeffrey Brown (17,645 at $22.67), and Chief Technology Officer Balaji Kumar (2,200 at $22.77). Chief Growth Officer Rebecca Wooters bought 4,325 at $23.00 on 3 November 2026.
- Acima profit rose on lower volume. Acima's Q3 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose about 15% to about $86 million, a 14.7% margin (company 8-K, 29 October 2026). Lease charge-offs fell to 8.7%, which management called the lowest since 2021.
- Brigit is the growth engine. Brigit's Q3 revenue rose 37% to $79 million, and paying users rose about 27% to 1.84 million. Its adjusted EBITDA rose 59% to $14.7 million (company 8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Cash flow is cutting debt. Q3 free cash flow was about $121 million, and debt is down more than $225 million since year-end 2025 (company 8-K, 29 October 2026). Net leverage fell to 2.4x from 2.6x a quarter earlier (Q3 call, 29 October 2026).
- Earnings beat and guidance narrowed upward. Q3 adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $1.01 beat the $0.91 consensus on revenue of $1.15 billion (Benzinga, 29 October 2026). Management narrowed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15–$4.30 from $4.00–$4.35.
Bear case
- The price has reached analyst targets. The $25.27 close on 11 November 2026 sits just under TD Cowen's $26 target and MarketBeat's $27.00 average. MarketBeat counted one Buy and three Holds on 5 November 2026.
- Analysts have not followed the price. TD Cowen kept its Buy rating but cut its target to $26 from $27 on 30 October 2026, its third cut since 31 July 2026.
- Acima volume is still shrinking. Acima's gross merchandise volume (GMV, the value of goods leased) fell 11% to $431 million in Q3, and revenue fell about 6.5% to $585 million (Q3 call, 29 October 2026). Management attributed 55% to 60% of the volume drop to tighter underwriting.
- Sales guidance moved down. The 2026 sales range fell to $4.68–$4.78 billion from $4.70–$4.85 billion, and Q4 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.00–$1.10 sits at or below the $1.10 consensus (Benzinga, 29 October 2026).
- Brigit credit losses need watching. Brigit's net advance loss rate was about 4.4% in Q3 (Q3 call, 29 October 2026). Faster advance growth into a stressed lower-income consumer can lift that rate.
- Momentum lists now flag the shares. Benzinga on 11 November 2026 named Upbound among three consumer stocks at risk of a pullback after sharp gains. Short interest stood at 9.2 million shares, 16.4% of float, with 8.2 days to cover (StockTitan, 6 November 2026), which can amplify moves either way.
Price setup
The shares rose 31.7% over the three months to 11 November 2026 in adjusted daily closes. The last close of $25.27 on 11 November 2026 sits 0.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $25.36 set the same day. It is far above the 50-day moving average of $17.86 and the 200-day moving average of $18.37, both as of 11 November 2026.
The rise came in steps from the 52-week closing low of $15.36 on 6 October 2026. The Q3 report lifted the shares from $16.91 on 28 October 2026 to $19.98 on 29 October 2026. The insider purchases at $22.61 to $23.00 on 2 November 2026 and 3 November 2026 followed, and the shares closed between $24.14 and $25.27 from 4 November 2026 through 11 November 2026.
The insider purchase prices of $22.61 to $24.95 mark where management bought. No insider selling or share issuance has been reported in SEC filings into the rise. The next earnings report is more than three months away, so the holiday season and the December dividend declaration are the nearer tests.
Catalysts ahead
- 27 November 2026: Black Friday and the US holiday selling season. Management's roughly flat Q4 Acima GMV guidance assumes a normal holiday season; weak big-ticket demand would show up in the Q4 volume figure.
- ~4 December 2026 (est.): Next quarterly dividend declaration, based on the 4 December 2025 declaration a year earlier. Holding the $0.39 rate supports the free cash flow guidance; a cut would undercut the cash-generation case.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether Acima GMV levelled off, whether 2026 free cash flow reached at least $250 million, and what 2027 guidance implies for revenue growth.
What would change the view
A daily close below $16.90, under the 28 October 2026 pre-report close of $16.91, which would erase the gain after the Q3 report. A clear year-over-year decline in Q4 Acima GMV against roughly flat guidance, or 2026 free cash flow below $250 million, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Acima's volume decline continues as tighter approvals and weak big-ticket demand persist. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 Acima GMV down clearly year over year at the next report, against guidance of roughly flat.
- Consumer stress pushes Brigit credit losses higher as advances grow. Confirmed by: Brigit's net advance loss rate rising clearly above the Q3 2026 level of about 4.4%.
- Cash flow falls short, slowing debt reduction and pressuring the dividend. Confirmed by: 2026 free cash flow below $250 million, net leverage above 2.4x, or a cut to the $0.39 quarterly dividend.
- The share price has run past what analysts support, leaving little room for upgrades. Confirmed by: analysts downgrading the shares or holding targets at or below TD Cowen's $26 while the price stays above them.
What it trades with
Upbound sits in the fintech and consumer-credit group with LendingTree (TREE), MediaAlpha (MAX), EverQuote (EVER), Fiserv (FISV) and Ibotta (IBTA). Its own drivers are lower-income consumer credit and big-ticket retail demand, which tie it more to holiday spending and credit-loss trends than to its peers' lead-generation and payments businesses. MarketBeat listed the shares' beta at 1.80 as of 6 November 2026, so broad market moves tend to be amplified in the price.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- CEO Fahmi Karam bought 4,407 shares at $22.71 on 3 November 2026 and 12,165 shares at $24.66 on 5 November 2026; COO Scott Young bought 6,015 shares at $24.95 on 9 November 2026, all open-market purchases. SEC Form 4 filings dated 5 November 2026, 9 November 2026 and 10 November 2026 · as of
- On 2 November 2026 and 3 November 2026, CFO Halim Khouri (11,000 shares at $22.78), directors Glenn Marino (17,400 at $22.61) and Jeffrey Brown (17,645 at $22.67), CTO Balaji Kumar (2,200 at $22.77) and CGO Rebecca Wooters (4,325 at $23.00) bought shares. SEC Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026 · as of
- Q3 2026 revenue $1.15 billion; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.01 vs $0.91 consensus; GAAP diluted EPS $0.58; adjusted EBITDA $123 million. Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1); Benzinga · as of
- Acima GMV $431 million, down 11% year over year; revenue $585 million, down about 6.5%; adjusted EBITDA about $86 million, up about 15%, margin 14.7%; lease charge-offs 8.7%. Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call · as of
- Brigit revenue $79 million, up 37%; paying users 1.84 million, up about 27%; adjusted EBITDA $14.7 million, up 59%; net advance loss rate about 4.4%. Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call · as of
- Q3 free cash flow about $121 million; debt reduced by more than $225 million since year-end 2025; net leverage 2.4x vs 2.6x prior quarter. Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call · as of
- FY2026 guidance: revenue $4.68–$4.78 billion, non-GAAP EPS $4.15–$4.30, free cash flow at least $250 million. Q4 guidance: revenue $1.15–$1.25 billion, non-GAAP EPS $1.00–$1.10, Acima GMV roughly flat year over year. Upbound Q3 2026 earnings release and call; Benzinga · as of
- MarketBeat consensus rating Hold (one Buy, three Hold) with an average price target of $27.00; TD Cowen kept a Buy rating and cut its target to $26 from $27 on 30 October 2026. MarketBeat; Benzinga 30 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) Stock: Insider Fahmi Karam Purchases 4,407 Shares · marketbeat.com ·
- Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) CEO Buys $100,082.97 in Stock · dailypolitical.com ·
- Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) Stock: Insider Glenn Marino Purchases 17,400 Shares · dailypolitical.com ·
- UPBD Stock Price, News & Analysis · stocktitan.net
- Business Wire ·
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