NUTX · Nutex Health
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $225.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $225.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 7.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $225.00, just under the $226.16 intraday 52-week high of 6 October 2026, which would show the shares leading again and the lag call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 218
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −18.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 46.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 35.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 248
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 208
- Price to earnings (×)
- 7.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.2
All filed numbers
What Nutex Health reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 218 | −18.7 | 46.7 | 35.4 |
| first filed | 211 | −13.6 | 67.0 | 57.8 |
| first filed | 217 | +2.2 | 42.4 | 37.5 |
| first filed | 152 | −41.1 | 30.4 | 20.4 |
| first filed | 268 | +239.9 | 57.8 | 48.7 |
| first filed | 244 | +220.7 | 51.2 | 13.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 72.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 165 | 40.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 259 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 10.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 248 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 250 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 42.3 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 208 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 5.1 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 436 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,192 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 984 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 3.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 7.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 20.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 18.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, −1.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $43K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $148K | $43K |
The thesis
Nutex Health's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report of 5 November 2026 showed lower arbitration costs than a year earlier, but by less than the 25-30% cut the company guided on 6 August 2026, and profit fell from a year earlier. The fourth-quarter report and the opening of two new hospitals decide whether volume growth can offset lower revenue per patient.
Contract services expense, the line that holds the HaloMD arbitration fees, was $43.7 million in Q3 2026 against $53.8 million in Q3 2025, an 18.8% drop (Q3 results release, 8-K, 5 November 2026). The guided 25-30% reduction was measured against "normalized historical" expenses, so the comparison is approximate. Revenue was $217.6 million, above the $210.8 million of Q2 2026 and above the $214.985 million estimate cited in a 5 November 2026 news report. It was 18.7% below the $267.8 million of Q3 2025.
Diluted earnings per share were $5.71 against $7.76 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted) attributable to Nutex was $63.9 million against $98.5 million.
The shares closed at $189.19 on 11 November 2026. That is 16.3% below the 52-week high of $226.16 (intraday, 6 October 2026) and below the 50-day average of $203.19. They remain above the 200-day average of $151.78, and the three-month change is 1.3%. The price still carries a sizeable recovery from the March low, with analyst targets far above it.
Bullish and bearish views on Nutex Health Inc.
The bull case on Nutex Health Inc. (NUTX), in brief: visits are growing fast. The bear case: the cost cut fell short of the guide.
Bull case
- Visits are growing fast. Hospital Division visits rose 18.1% to 54,622 in Q3 2026, and visits at hospitals open in both periods rose 12.4% (Q3 results release, 5 November 2026).
- Revenue held above Q2. Q3 revenue of $217.6 million exceeded the $210.8 million reported for Q2 2026 and the $214.985 million estimate cited in a 5 November 2026 news report.
- Cash keeps building. Cash and equivalents were $249.9 million at 30 September 2026, up from $205.2 million at 30 June 2026. Long-term debt, net, was $34.2 million, plus $8.1 million current (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Buybacks shrink the share count. The company repurchased and retired $50.7 million of stock in the nine months to 30 September 2026. Shares outstanding fell from 7,086,670 to 6,857,504 over that period (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Analysts raised targets after the report. B. Riley raised its target to $357 and Lake Street raised its target to $333, both with Buy ratings, on 9 November 2026.
Bear case
- The cost cut fell short of the guide. Q3 contract services expense of $43.7 million was 18.8% below Q3 2025, against the 25-30% reduction the company guided on 6 August 2026 (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Profit fell from a year earlier. Diluted EPS was $5.71 against $7.76, and adjusted EBITDA attributable to Nutex was $63.9 million against $98.5 million (Q3 results release, 5 November 2026).
- Revenue is well below last year. Q3 revenue of $217.6 million was down 18.7% from $267.8 million. The company attributed the drop mainly to 2025 items that raised that year's revenue, including later collection data for 2024 services and a Q4 2025 chart reconciliation.
- The shares fell after the report. They closed at $193.64 on 5 November 2026, the session of the release, and at $180.56 on 6 November 2026, the first session after it. The rebound to $194.16 on 9 November 2026 came on the analyst target raises and did not hold: the close was $186.25 on 10 November 2026.
- Legal and regulatory matters are open. An SEC inquiry into disclosure of HaloMD exposure and the collectibility of arbitration revenue is unresolved. A securities class action and a derivative suit are pending, and a class action over the August 2026 data theft was filed on 27 August 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $189.19 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week high is $226.16, set intraday on 6 October 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $87.01 on 12 March 2026.
The 50-day average of $203.19 sits above the last close, and the shares have not closed above it in the sessions since the report. The closing range since the report runs from $180.56 on 6 November 2026 to $194.16 on 9 November 2026. The 200-day average of $151.78 is well below.
Director Scott J. Saunders reported an open-market sale of 203 shares at $214.25 on 18 September 2026 (SEC Form 4). It is the only insider transaction in recent filings.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Nasdaq short-interest publication for the mid-November settlement date. Shows whether short sellers added or covered after the 5 November 2026 results and the drop to $180.56 on 6 November 2026.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected opening of new hospitals in San Antonio, Texas and Jacksonville, Florida in the fourth quarter. Visit growth is the main offset to lower revenue per patient; the openings extend it.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether contract services costs reach the guided 25-30% reduction and whether revenue holds near $217.6 million.
What would change the view
A daily close above $225.00, just under the $226.16 intraday 52-week high of 6 October 2026, which would show the shares leading again and the lag call wrong.
What it trades with
Nutex trades on its own arbitration and legal news more than on sector moves. Its revenue model depends on federal No Surprises Act arbitration outcomes, so rulings or CMS process changes affect it directly. Other hospital and emergency-care operators share patient-volume trends but not the HaloMD fee structure. HaloMD's own litigation is the closest read-across.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 contract services expense was $43.7 million versus $53.8 million in Q3 2025. Nutex Health Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99) · as of
- Q3 2026 revenue was $217.6 million, down 18.7% from $267.8 million in Q3 2025; diluted EPS was $5.71 versus $7.76. Nutex Health Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99) · as of
- Hospital Division visits rose 18.1% to 54,622 in Q3 2026; same-hospital visits rose 12.4%. Nutex Health Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99) · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $249.9 million and long-term debt, net, was $34.2 million at 30 September 2026. Nutex Health Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99) · as of
- The company guided to an approximate 25-30% reduction in normalized historical contract services expenses going forward. Nutex Health Q2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99) · as of
- B. Riley raised its price target to $357 and Lake Street raised its target to $333, both maintaining Buy. Analyst rating reports · as of
- Director Scott J. Saunders sold 203 shares at $214.25 on the open market. SEC Form 4 · as of
Sources
- Nutex Health Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Nutex Health Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · finviz.com