SARO · StandardAero
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $25.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $25.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 1.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $25.00, under the 5 November 2026 report-day close, which would erase the post-report rally despite the expanded buyback. Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA below the $905 million low end of guidance would also show the case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,557
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +4.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 16.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 10.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 322
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,280
- Price to earnings (×)
- 26.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.8
All filed numbers
What StandardAero reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,557 | +4.0 | 16.8 | 10.3 |
| first filed | 1,600 | +4.6 | 16.8 | 10.5 |
| first filed | 1,627 | +13.3 | 14.7 | 8.8 |
| first filed | 1,600 | +13.5 | 13.8 | 9.3 |
| first filed | 1,498 | +20.4 | 14.9 | 9.2 |
| first filed | 1,529 | +13.5 | 15.4 | 8.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 121 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 349 | 92.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 405 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 83.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 322 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 191 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 2,471 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,280 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −12.4% on a year | 376 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 913 |
| Inventory ($M) | 753 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,801 |
| Market value ($M) | 9,102 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 11,381 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 18.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 26.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.1 days of average trading to cover, +0.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $17K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $984K | $2.5B |
The thesis
StandardAero's engine-overhaul profits are growing faster than its revenue. On 5 November 2026 the company raised its 2026 outlook for the second time and more than doubled its buyback authorisation. The rating is Medium because the earnings trend and the company's own buying support the shares, while slow revenue and weak cash conversion are still open questions. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 26 February 2027, settles the case. It shows whether the company reached its raised 2026 target of $905 million to $920 million in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation), and whether Engine Services margins carry into 2027.
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,557.4 million, up 4.0% year on year, according to the company's 8-K exhibit. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15.0% to $224.9 million, and the margin widened to 14.4% from 13.1%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.39, up from $0.30 a year earlier and above the $0.38 estimate (Benzinga, 5 November 2026). Revenue is the weak point. It missed the $1.562 billion consensus, and commercial aerospace revenue grew only 1.3%.
The price shows a recovery but no re-rating. The shares closed at $27.56 on 12 November 2026, up from a 52-week closing low of $19.76 on 14 October 2026. That close is 20.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $34.48 set on 20 January 2026. It is also below the $31.00 price at which Carlyle and GIC affiliates sold 50 million shares in January 2026.
Leadership is changing hands. Paul McElhinney, formerly chief executive of GE Aviation Services, became chief executive on 1 October 2026. Russell Ford remains executive chairman through 31 December 2026, according to the company's 2 June 2026 release.
Bullish and bearish views on StandardAero, Inc.
The bull case on StandardAero, Inc. (SARO), in brief: Engine Services margins at a record. The bear case: revenue growth is slow.
Bull case
- Engine Services margins at a record. Engine Services adjusted EBITDA rose 24.0% to $205.1 million in the third quarter of 2026 on revenue up 3.5%. The segment margin widened to 15.0% from 12.5% (company 8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Guidance raised a second time. On 5 November 2026 the company raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.57–$1.62 from $1.50–$1.57, against a $1.51 consensus. Revenue guidance rose to $6.525–$6.645 billion from $6.375–$6.500 billion (Benzinga, 5 November 2026).
- Buyback capacity more than doubled. The board raised the repurchase authorisation by $560 million to $1.0 billion on 28 October 2026. The company intends to enter a $350 million accelerated share repurchase with Morgan Stanley, and had repurchased $160.1 million of shares to date, including $50.1 million in the third quarter (company 8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Third-quarter cash flow turned up. Adjusted free cash flow was $99.2 million in the third quarter of 2026. Operating cash flow for the first nine months was $81.7 million, against an outflow of $6.3 million a year earlier (company 8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Leverage is falling. Net debt was $2,307.9 million on 30 September 2026, or 2.7 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.9 times a year earlier (company 8-K).
- Analyst targets sit above the shares. BTIG reiterated its Buy rating and $35 target on 9 November 2026. UBS raised its target to $34 from $32 on 6 November 2026 (Benzinga).
Bear case
- Revenue growth is slow. Third-quarter revenue of $1,557.4 million missed the $1.562 billion estimate, and commercial aerospace revenue grew 1.3% (company 8-K; Benzinga, 5 November 2026). GAAP EPS of $0.28 missed the $0.31 estimate.
- Component Repair margins compressed. Component Repair Services adjusted EBITDA fell 9.9% to $48.6 million even as segment revenue rose 7.3%. Its margin fell to 25.8% from 30.7% (company 8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Most of the year's cash is still due. Nine-month operating cash flow was $81.7 million, and third-quarter free cash flow including intangible purchases was an outflow of about $81.0 million. Full-year guidance calls for $270–$300 million of adjusted free cash flow, which leaves a large fourth-quarter requirement (company 8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Insiders are sellers, not buyers. Chief Legal Officer Michael Kaplan exercised options on 2,941 shares on 15 October 2026 and sold 780 shares at $21.24 on 16 October 2026 (SEC Form 4). No open-market insider purchase appears in SEC Form 4 filings since 14 August 2026.
- Sponsor share supply remains. Carlyle and GIC affiliates sold 50 million shares at $31.00 in January 2026 (company release, 27 January 2026), and further sales by the sponsors would add supply.
- Analysts trimmed targets before the report. RBC cut its target to $32 from $34 on 28 October 2026, and CIBC lowered its target to $35 on 26 October 2026 (Benzinga).
Price setup
The shares closed at $27.56 on 12 November 2026, down 1.2% over three months. That close sits above both the 50-day moving average of $23.01 and the 200-day moving average of $26.37. The 50-day average remains below the 200-day, which shows how deep the September–October decline went.
The post-report rally started from the $25.30 close on 5 November 2026, the day of the report. The shares closed at $27.63 on 6 November 2026, when UBS raised its target, and reached $28.97 on 9 November 2026. They have since eased to $27.56 on 12 November 2026, giving back part of the move while holding above the 200-day average.
Above the last close, the $31.00 January 2026 secondary-offering price is the nearest reference. The 52-week intraday high of $34.48 from 20 January 2026 is the next, and BTIG's $35 and UBS's $34 targets sit near it. No company report is scheduled before the fourth-quarter release. The planned $350 million accelerated repurchase is the main source of company buying in the meantime.
Catalysts ahead
- 31 December 2026: Russell Ford's executive chairman term ends; Paul McElhinney becomes chairman on 1 January 2027. Completes the leadership handover and puts full control under the new chief executive before the first 2027 guidance.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 report with first 2027 guidance. Shows whether the raised $905–$920M 2026 adjusted EBITDA and $270–$300M adjusted free cash flow guidance were met, and whether Engine Services margin gains carry into 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close below $25.00, under the 5 November 2026 report-day close, which would erase the post-report rally despite the expanded buyback. Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA below the $905 million low end of guidance would also show the case failing.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Commercial aerospace demand stays flat and revenue keeps missing consensus. Confirmed by: commercial aerospace revenue growth staying near the 1.3% seen in Q3 2026, with Q4 2026 revenue below consensus.
- Component Repair Services margin compression persists or spreads. Confirmed by: component Repair margin at or below the 25.8% Q3 2026 level, or full-year segment adjusted EBITDA below the $205–$210M guide.
- Free cash flow falls short of the raised earnings. Confirmed by: full-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow below the $270–$300M guidance range at the Q4 report.
- Sponsor or insider selling adds share supply. Confirmed by: a new Carlyle or GIC secondary offering, or further executive sales reported in SEC Form 4 filings.
- New leadership resets 2027 expectations lower. Confirmed by: first 2027 guidance at the Q4 report implying adjusted EBITDA growth below the 2026 rate.
What it trades with
StandardAero is grouped with defense and aerospace names such as Karman Holdings (KRMN) and BETA Technologies (BETA). Its earnings depend mostly on commercial engine shop visits, such as the LEAP-1A overhaul work Air Corsica awarded on 27 October 2026. Defense budget news therefore moves it less than it moves Karman. Airline capacity, engine-maker aftermarket comments and sponsor share sales are the inputs most likely to move the shares with or apart from the group. A broad rally in the defense group would not offset a fourth-quarter shortfall in Engine Services margins.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue $1,557.4M, +4.0% YoY; adjusted EBITDA $224.9M, +15.0%, margin 14.4% vs 13.1%; adjusted EPS $0.39 vs $0.30; GAAP EPS $0.28 StandardAero Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Engine Services adjusted EBITDA $205.1M, +24.0%, margin 15.0% vs 12.5%; Component Repair adjusted EBITDA $48.6M, −9.9%, margin 25.8% vs 30.7% StandardAero Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $1.57–$1.62 from $1.50–$1.57; revenue guidance $6.525–$6.645B; adjusted EBITDA $905–$920M; adjusted free cash flow $270–$300M StandardAero Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1; Benzinga 5 November 2026 · as of
- Repurchase authorisation raised by $560M to $1.0B; $160.1M repurchased to date incl. $50.1M in Q3; intended $350M accelerated share repurchase with Morgan Stanley StandardAero Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Net debt $2,307.9M, 2.7x LTM adjusted EBITDA vs 2.9x a year earlier; nine-month operating cash flow $81.7M vs −$6.3M; Q3 adjusted free cash flow $99.2M StandardAero Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- UBS raised its price target to $34 from $32 (Buy) on 6 November 2026; BTIG reiterated Buy with a $35 target on 9 November 2026 Benzinga analyst notes, 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026 · as of
- Chief Legal Officer Michael Kaplan exercised options on 2,941 shares and sold 780 shares at $21.24 SEC Form 4 filed 16 October 2026 · as of
- Air Corsica selected StandardAero for LEAP-1A performance restoration shop visits on its A320neo fleet Company announcement via Benzinga, 27 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- StandardAero, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- StandardAero, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- StandardAero Announces Third Quarter Results · ir.standardaero.com
- StandardAero Q3 Earnings: $93 Million Net Income and $1 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization · panabee.com
- StandardAero Announces CEO Succession Plan · standardaero.com ·
- StandardAero Announces Pricing of Its Secondary Offering of 50000000 Shares of Common Stock by Affiliates of The Carlyle Group Inc. and GIC · businesswire.com ·
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