CDRE · Cadre Holdings
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $30.84
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
8.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $30.84, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 0.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $30.84, the 4 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain; or fourth-quarter 2026 net sales below the roughly $197 million implied by guidance alongside a second sequential backlog decline.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 203
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +30.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 43.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 14.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 76.4
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −306
- Price to earnings (×)
- 34.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.4
All filed numbers
What Cadre Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 203 | +30.2 | 43.4 | 14.0 |
| first filed | 207 | +31.8 | 42.1 | 10.8 |
| first filed | 155 | +19.5 | 38.7 | 4.8 |
| first filed | 167 | −5.0 | 43.4 | 12.2 |
| first filed | 156 | +42.5 | 42.7 | 12.0 |
| first filed | 157 | +8.9 | 40.9 | 9.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 23.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 41.1 | 16.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +6.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 88.8 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 12.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 76.4 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 63.9 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 370 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −306 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +9.9% on a year | 11.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +158.5% on a year | 181 |
| Receivables ($M) | 127 |
| Inventory ($M) | 127 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 367 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,434 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,740 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 22.1 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 34.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.2 days of average trading to cover, −4.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $6.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $78.8M |
The thesis
Cadre Holdings is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter sales rose 30%, organic growth returned to 10% and the board approved a first $100 million buyback, while the shares still trade 32.2% below their March high. The fourth-quarter report, expected around early March 2027, settles whether sales hold near guidance and whether a shrinking backlog stabilises.
Cadre makes safety and survivability equipment: body armor, duty gear, bomb-disposal suits and nuclear safety products. On 4 November 2026 it reported third-quarter net sales of $202.9 million, against $155.9 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, as adjusted by the company) was $41.1 million, a 20.2% margin, up from $29.8 million and 19.1%.
The shares closed at $33.08 on 12 November 2026, 2.8% lower than three months earlier, even after the strongest quarter of the year. The price reflects the guidance math: Earnings Whispers estimated on 5 November 2026 that the full-year range implies fourth-quarter sales of about $197 million, below the third quarter. The rating is Medium because the margin and organic-growth gains are reported facts, while the backlog decline and the pulled-forward shipments leave the next quarter open.
Bullish and bearish views on Cadre Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on Cadre Holdings, Inc. (CDRE), in brief: organic growth has turned up. The bear case: part of the beat was timing.
Bull case
- Organic growth has turned up. Earnings Whispers reported on 5 November 2026 that organic growth excluding distribution reached 10% in the third quarter, up from 5% in the second quarter and negative in the first.
- Margins are widening on higher volume. Gross margin rose to 43.4% from 42.7% and the adjusted EBITDA margin rose 110 basis points to 20.2% in the third quarter, according to the company's 4 November 2026 release.
- A first buyback adds a buyer. The board authorized up to $100 million of share repurchases on 4 November 2026, the company's first program. The $0.10 quarterly dividend is payable on 13 November 2026.
- Guidance rose for a second quarter. On 4 November 2026 the company set 2026 net sales at $756–769 million, up from $749–769 million, and adjusted EBITDA at $140–144 million.
- Analysts raised targets after the report. JP Morgan raised its target to $40 from $35 on 7 November 2026, reversing its 13 October 2026 cut, and kept Overweight. Roth MKM's Matt Koranda kept Buy and raised the target to $44 from $43 on 10 November 2026.
Bear case
- Part of the beat was timing. Earnings Whispers estimated on 5 November 2026 that about $10 million of next-generation bomb-suit shipments were pulled into the third quarter from later in the year.
- Only the low end of guidance rose. The top of the 2026 range stayed at $769 million in sales and $144 million in adjusted EBITDA (company release, 4 November 2026). Earnings Whispers said full-year organic growth guidance narrowed to 3–4% from 3–5%.
- Backlog is shrinking from its peak. Total backlog fell about $29 million from the second quarter, after a record $355 million in the first quarter, according to Earnings Whispers on 5 November 2026.
- Debt has risen with acquisitions. Net debt reached $305.6 million at 30 September 2026, up $121.2 million since year-end 2025, with cash at $63.9 million (company release, 4 November 2026). The buyback competes with further deals for that balance sheet.
- Executives sold near current prices in August. Chairman and CEO Warren Kanders sold 200,000 shares on 24 August 2026 and 25 August 2026 at an average $32.61, and President Brad Williams sold 88,742 shares at an average $33.24 on 17 August 2026 after exercising options, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
Price setup
The shares closed at $32.27 on 5 November 2026, the session after the report, peaked at a close of $34.18 on 9 November 2026 and closed at $33.08 on 12 November 2026. The post-report gain is measured from the 4 November 2026 close, the last session before results.
As of 12 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $28.18 and the 200-day moving average $31.55, both below the last close. The 52-week closing low was $24.55 on 9 October 2026 and the 52-week intraday high $48.76 on 5 March 2026. The shares have recovered about a third of the fall from March to October.
Form 4 filings dated 10 November 2026 show CFO Blaine Browers exercising 150,000 options and Brad Williams exercising 200,000 on 8 November 2026, with 59,025 and 78,700 shares withheld for tax at $32.60. Neither filing reports an open-market sale. Insiders held about 30% of the shares, according to a 7 November 2026 Daily Political item, which keeps the free float smaller than the market value suggests.
Catalysts ahead
- ~5 March 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 results with first 2027 guidance. Shows whether Q4 sales land near the roughly $197M implied by guidance after the pulled-forward bomb-suit shipments, whether backlog stops falling, and how much stock was repurchased under the $100M program.
What would change the view
A daily close below $30.84, the 4 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain; or fourth-quarter 2026 net sales below the roughly $197 million implied by guidance alongside a second sequential backlog decline.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Q3 strength was partly timing, leaving Q4 2026 and early 2027 short of expectations. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 net sales materially below the roughly $197M implied by full-year guidance, or a 2027 sales outlook below 2026 levels.
- Order intake slows, with backlog continuing to fall from its $355M Q1 2026 record. Confirmed by: a second consecutive sequential backlog decline disclosed at the Q4 2026 report.
- Acquisition-funded growth raises leverage and crowds out the buyback. Confirmed by: net debt rising further above $305.6M at year-end 2026 with little or no stock repurchased under the $100M authorization.
- Further insider selling adds supply to a stock with a limited free float. Confirmed by: new SEC Form 4 filings showing open-market sales by the CEO, CFO or President in the months after the Q3 report.
What it trades with
Cadre trades with the defense and aerospace group, but its customers are mostly law enforcement, first responders and nuclear safety buyers rather than prime defense contractors. Its shares are less tied to defense-budget headlines than those of defense prime suppliers.
About 8% of revenue comes from consumer holsters, according to Earnings Whispers on 5 November 2026, and that line moves with political events. A broad cooling in defense names would weigh on the shares in the short run, while the fourth-quarter test rests on Cadre's own orders and backlog.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 net sales $202.9M, up about 30% from $155.9M in Q3 2025; gross margin 43.4% vs 42.7%. Cadre Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA $41.1M at a 20.2% margin, up from $29.8M and 19.1%; diluted EPS $0.37 vs $0.27. Cadre Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- FY2026 guidance: net sales $756M–$769M (prior $749M–$769M), adjusted EBITDA $140M–$144M; board authorized a first $100M buyback. Cadre Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Net debt $305.6M, up $121.2M since 2025 year-end; cash $63.9M; total debt $369.5M. Cadre Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Backlog fell about $29M sequentially in Q3 after a record $355M in Q1; about $10M of bomb-suit shipments were pulled into Q3. Earnings Whispers via Finviz, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Organic growth excluding distribution was 10% in Q3, up from 5% in Q2 and negative in Q1. Earnings Whispers via Finviz, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Roth MKM kept Buy and raised its target to $44 from $43; JP Morgan raised its target to $40 from $35 on 7 November 2026 and kept Overweight. Roth MKM and JP Morgan rating actions, company news · as of
- CEO Warren Kanders sold 200,000 shares on the open market at an average $32.61 on 24 August 2026 and 25 August 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 26 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- Cadre Holdings, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Cadre beats and lifts the low end of guidance but a pulled forward EOD order and shrinking backlog temper the raise · finviz.com ·
- Cadre Holdings Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · morningstar.com ·
- Cadre (NYSE:CDRE) Share Price Crosses Above 200 Day Moving Average · dailypolitical.com ·
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