BILL · BILL Holdings
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $44.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
23.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $44.00, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are up 12.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $44.00, well under the 50-day average, which would reverse the post-earnings advance and show the shares lagging. Businesses served below 475,300 at the fiscal second-quarter 2027 report, or a cut to the $466–$486 million fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating-income guide, would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 354
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +12.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 76.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 14.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 414
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −244
- Price to earnings (×)
- 90.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.1
All filed numbers
What BILL Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 354 | +12.5 | 76.9 | 14.5 |
| first filed | 436 | +13.8 | 81.7 | −7.9 |
| first filed | 407 | +13.5 | 81.6 | −0.1 |
| first filed | 415 | +14.4 | 79.8 | −4.4 |
| first filed restated | 314 | −12.3 | 75.5 | −6.6 |
| first filed | 383 | +11.5 | 80.8 | −5.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 61.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 52.0 | 60.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 416 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 414 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,594 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,837 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −244 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −2.4% on a year | 20.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −23.5% on a year | 52.4 |
| Receivables ($M) | 30.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,300 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,679 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,923 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 90.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 8.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 12.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.2 days of average trading to cover, +1.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $17.9M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $19.1M |
The thesis
BILL Holdings' profit growth now outweighs its shrinking customer count, and the shares are rated Medium, modestly better than even to beat the S&P 500 over three months. Fiscal first-quarter 2027 non-GAAP (adjusted) operating income was $136.9 million, up 101% year over year, and full-year guidance rose, but businesses served fell to 475,300. The fiscal second-quarter report, expected around early February 2027, settles whether the customer count stops falling.
The shares closed at $54.43 on 11 November 2026, up 6.1% over three months on adjusted closes and 4.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $57.21 set on 22 December 2025. The price has risen from a $50.89 close on 5 November 2026, the day of the report, and already reflects the profit beat and the raised guide. Analysts raised targets on 6 November 2026, 9 November 2026 and 11 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on BILL Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL), in brief: profit growth is large and guided higher. The bear case: customers fell for a second straight quarter.
Bull case
- Profit growth is large and guided higher. Fiscal first-quarter 2027 non-GAAP operating income was $136.9 million, versus $68.2 million a year earlier. BILL raised its fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating-income guide to $466.0–$486.0 million from $421–$451 million, per its 19 August 2026 and 5 November 2026 releases.
- Earnings guidance moved up. Benzinga reported on 5 November 2026 that BILL lifted fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) guidance to $3.99–$4.15 from $3.56–$3.79, against a $3.72 analyst estimate.
- GAAP profit turned positive. Net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $60.3 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, versus a $3.0 million net loss a year earlier.
- Buybacks shrink the share count. BILL repurchased about 7 million shares for roughly $305 million in the quarter, per its 5 November 2026 release.
- Analysts keep raising targets. TD Cowen kept Buy and raised its target to $66 on 9 November 2026. Citigroup kept Buy and raised its target to $60 the same day. Oppenheimer kept Outperform with a $60 target on 6 November 2026 (Benzinga analyst headlines).
- Volume and core revenue still grow. Total payment volume was $102 billion, up 14%, and core revenue rose 14% to $316.4 million in the quarter, per the 5 November 2026 release.
Bear case
- Customers fell for a second straight quarter. Businesses served were 475,300 at 30 September 2026, versus 479,300 at 30 June 2026 and 493,800 at 31 March 2026, per BILL's releases. Profit growth with a falling customer base leans on pricing, mix and cost control.
- Next quarter's profit guide steps down. BILL guided fiscal second-quarter non-GAAP operating income to $112.5–$117.5 million, below the $136.9 million just reported.
- Revenue guidance fell on the new presentation. BILL began netting card rewards expense against revenue on 1 July 2026 and restated prior periods. Fiscal 2027 total revenue guidance is now $1,433.5–$1,463.5 million, so it does not compare with guidance issued before the change. Operating income and EPS are unaffected.
- Float revenue depends on interest rates. Float revenue, interest earned on customer funds, was $37.4 million in the quarter, per the 5 November 2026 release. A falling rate path would cut it independently of software demand.
- Insiders sold into the rally. Chief Executive Officer Rene Lacerte sold 60,000 shares at an average $53.18 on 6 November to 9 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, after exercising 50,000 options at $5.26 (SEC Form 4, filed 10 November 2026). He also sold 257,243 shares at an average $48.71 on 2 September to 3 September 2026.
- Some targets sit near the price. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods kept Market Perform with a $58 target on 6 November 2026. Morgan Stanley kept Equal-Weight and raised its target to $64 on 11 November 2026 (Benzinga analyst headlines).
Price setup
BILL closed at $54.43 on 11 November 2026, after closes of $52.41 on 6 November 2026, $53.81 on 9 November 2026 and $53.74 on 10 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $57.21, set on 22 December 2025, and the 52-week closing low is $31.96, set on 22 June 2026.
The close sits above both the 50-day average of $47.56 and the 200-day average of $42.74, adjusted daily closes as of 11 November 2026. The three-month reference close was $51.31 on 13 August 2026, so the shares have gained modestly over the window.
Insider selling is the only filed insider activity of note: the CEO's 6 November to 9 November 2026 sale and the September sales by the CEO, Chief Financial Officer Rohini Jain and Chief Product Officer Michael Cieri (SEC Form 4). The sales by Jain and Cieri were under Rule 10b5-1 plans, as was the CEO's November sale.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision (scheduled meeting, final day). Rate levels drive BILL's float revenue, which was $37.4 million in fiscal Q1 2027, independent of software demand.
- ~5 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal second-quarter 2027 results (date unconfirmed). Tests the $112.5–$117.5 million non-GAAP operating-income guide and whether businesses served stop falling from 475,300.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $44.00, well under the 50-day average, which would reverse the post-earnings advance and show the shares lagging. Businesses served below 475,300 at the fiscal second-quarter 2027 report, or a cut to the $466–$486 million fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating-income guide, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Customer losses continue even as margins expand. Confirmed by: businesses served below 475,300 at the fiscal second-quarter 2027 report.
- Profit growth slows after a strong first quarter. Confirmed by: fiscal second-quarter non-GAAP operating income at or below the low end of the $112.5–$117.5 million guide, against $136.9 million in the first quarter.
- The rewards-netting change keeps revenue comparisons unclear. Confirmed by: later releases that again restate prior periods or omit a reconciliation to earlier guidance.
- Rate-sensitive float revenue moves independently of the software franchise. Confirmed by: a year-over-year decline from the $37.4 million fiscal first-quarter 2027 float-revenue level in a later release.
- Continued insider selling signals limited internal conviction at current prices. Confirmed by: further SEC Form 4 filings showing open-market sales by the CEO or other executives above the $53.18 average of the 6 November to 9 November 2026 sale.
What it trades with
BILL sells payments and spend-management software to small and mid-sized businesses. Its shares respond to growth expectations for software and payments companies and to small-business credit conditions. Float revenue ties part of its results to short-term interest rates, including the Federal Reserve decision on 9 December 2026. Company news has driven the price in recent weeks: the 5 November 2026 report and the analyst changes that followed.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Businesses served were 475,300 at 30 September 2026, versus 479,300 at 30 June 2026. BILL fiscal Q1 2027 results release · as of
- Fiscal Q1 2027 total revenue was $353.8 million, up 13% year over year, and core revenue was $316.4 million, up 14%, both net of rewards expense with prior periods restated. BILL fiscal Q1 2027 results release · as of
- Non-GAAP operating income was $136.9 million, up 101% from $68.2 million a year earlier; GAAP net income was $60.3 million ($0.61 per diluted share) versus a $3.0 million net loss a year earlier. BILL fiscal Q1 2027 results release · as of
- Fiscal 2027 guidance: non-GAAP operating income $466.0–$486.0 million, non-GAAP EPS $3.99–$4.15, total revenue $1,433.5–$1,463.5 million on the rewards-netted presentation. BILL fiscal Q1 2027 results release · as of
- Fiscal Q2 2027 guidance: total revenue $353.0–$363.0 million, non-GAAP operating income $112.5–$117.5 million, non-GAAP EPS $0.97–$1.01. BILL fiscal Q1 2027 results release · as of
- BILL repurchased about 7 million shares for roughly $305 million in fiscal Q1 2027; float revenue was $37.4 million and total payment volume was $102 billion, up 14%. BILL fiscal Q1 2027 results release · as of
- CEO Rene Lacerte sold 60,000 shares at an average $53.18 on 6 November to 9 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, after exercising 50,000 options at $5.26. SEC Form 4 filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- TD Cowen raised its target to $66 (Buy) and Citigroup to $60 (Buy) on 9 November 2026; Morgan Stanley raised its target to $64 (Equal-Weight) on 11 November 2026. Benzinga analyst headlines · as of
Sources