PLNT · Planet Fitness

The thesis

Planet Fitness shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 for the next three months. The reasons are the 5 November 2026 third-quarter beat, a raised sales outlook and five analyst target increases between 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026. Membership is flat at about 21.5 million, so the New Year join season and the fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, decide the case.

Revenue rose 9.0% to $360.0 million in the third quarter, per the company's 8-K. System-wide same-club sales rose 1.5%, and the company raised its 2026 same-club outlook to about 1.5% to 2% from about 1%. Higher prices drove the gain, and net member joins did not turn.

Brokers followed the report. Wells Fargo raised its target to $75, RBC Capital to $70 from $60 and KeyBanc to $68, all keeping positive ratings, per Benzinga headlines on 6 November 2026. Deutsche Bank kept a Hold rating and lifted its target to $58 from $54 the same day. TD Cowen kept a Hold rating and raised its target to $61 from $54 on 9 November 2026, per Benzinga.

The price already reflects a recovery from the low, though not a return to member growth. The shares closed at $61.19 on 11 November 2026, close to TD Cowen's $61 target, up 51% from the $40.50 closing low of 28 September 2026 and still 46.4% below the 52-week high.

Bullish and bearish views on Planet Fitness, Inc.

The bull case on Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT), in brief: outlook raised across the top line. The bear case: member growth remains flat.

Bull case

• Outlook raised across the top line. On 5 November 2026 the company raised 2026 revenue growth to about 8% from about 7% and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth to about 6.5% from about 6%, per its 8-K. Benzinga put the new $1.430 billion sales outlook above a $1.425 billion estimate.
• Refranchising could release capital. The company began a review of about 280 US corporate clubs, aiming for corporate ownership below 10% of the system, per the 5 November 2026 earnings call. Guidance excludes any sale.
• Be-Fit opens a new market. The company bought Be-Fit, a Portuguese operator with 25 clubs and about 80,000 members, for about €102.5 million (about $114.8 million), per its 5 November 2026 8-K. It expects the deal to add to 2027 earnings and plans to refranchise the business later.
• Buybacks keep shrinking the share count. The company retired 6.36 million shares for about $303.9 million in the first nine months of 2026, per its third-quarter 10-Q filed 5 November 2026. The board approved a new $500 million authorization alongside the report.
• Most targets sit above the price. Wells Fargo at $75, RBC at $70 and KeyBanc at $68 are all above the $61.19 close of 11 November 2026, per Benzinga headlines dated 6 November 2026.

Bear case

• Member growth remains flat. Membership held at about 21.5 million from the end of the second quarter to the end of the third, per the 5 November 2026 call. Same-club sales growth slowed to 1.5% in the third quarter from 1.7% in the second.
• Earnings growth leans on fewer shares. Adjusted net income fell to $61.9 million from $67.0 million a year earlier, while adjusted EPS (earnings per share) rose to $0.83 from $0.80, per the 5 November 2026 8-K. The adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 40.6% from 42.6%.
• Debt costs are rising. Third-quarter interest expense was $34.1 million against $26.3 million a year earlier, per the 10-Q. Long-term debt was $2,496.8 million before financing costs on 30 September 2026, against $310.2 million of cash.
• Franchisees are spending less on equipment. The 2026 outlook for franchisee equipment placements fell to about 135 to 140 from 150 to 160, per the 5 November 2026 8-K. That cuts a revenue line and signals caution among club owners.
• The Hold-rated brokers see little upside. TD Cowen's $61 target of 9 November 2026 sits at the current price, and Deutsche Bank's $58 target of 6 November 2026 sits below it, per Benzinga.

Price setup

The shares closed at $61.19 on 11 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. They have held between $60.07 and $61.34 in the five sessions since the report, after a jump from the $57.34 close of 4 November 2026. The 3-month change is 24.6%, measured from the $49.10 close of 13 August 2026.

The last close sits above both main moving averages as of 11 November 2026: the 50-day average of $49.79 and the 200-day average of $60.53. The margin over the 200-day average is under 1%, so the shares are testing the line of their longer trend after the decline that followed the 7 May 2026 guidance cut and the roughly 31% one-day drop that day.

Before the report, the shares traded as low as $51.69 between 19 October 2026 and 28 October 2026. The 52-week closing low is $40.50 on 28 September 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $114.26, set on 16 December 2025, and the last close is 46.4% below it.

Catalysts ahead

• 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve policy decision (meeting 8 December to 9 December 2026). The rate path bears on the cost of the company's securitized and variable-rate debt that funds buybacks, and on the budgets of its price-sensitive members.
• ~28 December 2026 (est.): Full New Year advertising campaign launches. It is the first full test of the new creative in the main join season and bears on whether membership grows from about 21.5 million.
• ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report and 2027 outlook. It shows the year-end member count, fourth-quarter same-club sales, early join-season results, any refranchising transactions and 2027 guidance.

What would change the view

A daily close below $51.60, under the $51.69 low of the 19 October to 28 October 2026 range, which would erase the gain into and after the third-quarter report. A year-end member count below 21.5 million or negative fourth-quarter same-club sales would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Member growth fails to restart, leaving same-club sales dependent on price increases. Confirmed by: a year-end member count below about 21.5 million or negative fourth-quarter same-club sales in the February 2027 report.
• The New Year campaign fails to lift joins in the main sign-up season. Confirmed by: management describing January 2027 joins as below the prior year at the fourth-quarter report.
• The corporate club review produces little capital or takes much longer than the market expects. Confirmed by: management ending the review without transactions, or no announced club sales by the February 2027 report.
• Higher rates raise debt costs and squeeze budget-conscious members. Confirmed by: a higher net interest expense outlook at the February 2027 report, or a Fed rate increase with the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 5%.
• Franchisees slow their spending on equipment and new clubs. Confirmed by: a further cut to equipment placements below 135 to 140, or a 2027 franchise unit growth outlook below the 2026 level.
• The Be-Fit purchase adds integration cost and slows the move to a lighter franchise model. Confirmed by: Be-Fit diluting 2027 earnings, against the company's accretion forecast, or refranchising plans for it being dropped.

What it trades with

Planet Fitness trades with consumer-discretionary stocks that depend on budget-conscious households, so a broad pullback in consumer spending names would weigh on the shares without any change in the company's own results.

The shares are also sensitive to interest rates through the securitized debt that funds buybacks. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.1% on 16 October 2026, per Benzinga, and the Federal Reserve decision on 9 December 2026 can move the stock independently of membership trends.