STUB · StubHub Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $8.08
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
34.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $8.08, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 25.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $8.08, the 14 August 2026 close and the highest of the past three months, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA reported above the $420 million top of guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 502
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +7.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 85.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 8.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 232
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −130
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.1
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 36.6
All filed numbers
What StubHub Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 502 | +7.2 | 85.3 | 8.4 |
| first filed | 573 | +33.2 | 81.7 | 3.4 |
| first filed | 446 | +12.2 | 85.2 | 5.8 |
| first filed | 449 | −15.8 | 83.1 | −6.2 |
| first filed | 468 | +7.9 | 78.5 | −292.3 |
| first filed | 430 | — | 82.5 | 5.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 31.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −439 | 33.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +24.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 233 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 232 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,167 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,298 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −130 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −0.6% on a year | 861 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 11.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1.7 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,683 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,062 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,193 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 36.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 11.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.5 days of average trading to cover, −5.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $6.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $11.3M |
The thesis
StubHub Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it over the next three months. Profit margins jumped and debt fell in the third quarter, but sales grew only 7%, results missed estimates, and analysts cut targets. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early 2027, settles whether the reiterated $400–420 million full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance turns into cash.
StubHub reported third-quarter results on 10 November 2026 in its 8-K. Gross merchandise sales (GMS, the value of tickets sold) were $2.62 billion, up 7%. Revenue was $502.0 million, also up 7%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 84% to $124.1 million, a 25% margin. Benzinga reported that earnings per share of $0.05 missed the $0.11 consensus and that revenue missed the $513.9 million estimate.
The rating is Low because the report confirmed that growth has slowed sharply from the World Cup-lifted second quarter. Profit guidance did not rise with the higher sales outlook, and JPMorgan and Evercore ISI both lowered their targets on 11 November 2026. The shares closed at $5.58 on 11 November 2026, 71.9% below the $19.86 52-week high of 12 November 2025 and 27.3% lower over three months. That price already reflects slower growth and resale regulation, and the 84% EBITDA gain did not lift it.
Bullish and bearish views on StubHub Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB), in brief: margins reached a public-company high. The bear case: growth fell to single digits.
Bull case
- Margins reached a public-company high. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 25%, and sales and marketing fell to 45% of revenue, down 9 percentage points year over year (company slides reported by Investing.com, 10 November 2026). Net income was $33.6 million, against a $1.29 billion loss a year earlier, when stock compensation tied to the IPO weighed on results (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Debt keeps falling. Net leverage was 2.5 times trailing adjusted EBITDA at 30 September 2026. It was 4.5 times at 31 December 2025 (8-K, 10 November 2026). Cash was $1.17 billion against $1.32 billion of term-loan principal, and $100 million of debt was repaid in July 2026.
- Refinancing pushed out maturities. A company release on 14 October 2026 extended the Term Loan B to October 2033 and the revolving credit facility to October 2031, at lower borrowing rates. The same release reported that Moody's upgraded StubHub's Corporate Family Rating to B2 from B3.
- Full-year sales outlook rose again. The 2026 GMS range moved to $10.175–10.375 billion, or 11–13% growth, from a range that implied 10–12% (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- One broker still sees large upside. Evercore ISI kept an Outperform rating on 11 November 2026 and lowered its target to $13, more than double the $5.58 close that day.
Bear case
- Growth fell to single digits. Third-quarter GMS growth was 7%, down from 34% in the second quarter (8-K filings of 12 August 2026 and 10 November 2026). Management said fourth-quarter comparisons depend on World Cup timing, Major League Baseball playoff scheduling and when promoters put concerts on sale (Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
- Profit guidance did not move. Adjusted EBITDA guidance stayed at $400–420 million on 10 November 2026 even though the GMS range rose for the second quarter running. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $301.8 million.
- Quarterly cash flow turned sharply negative. Third-quarter free cash flow was negative $410.1 million, after positive $309.7 million in the second quarter. Nine-month free cash flow was $190.1 million (8-K, 10 November 2026). The company attributes the swing to the timing of buyer receipts and seller payments around the World Cup.
- Targets keep falling. JPMorgan kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $8 on 11 November 2026, and Evercore ISI cut to $13 the same day.
- Finance leadership is changing. On 10 November 2026 StubHub named Michael Noonan chief financial officer from 4 January 2027, succeeding Connie James, so a new CFO will present 2027 guidance.
- Resale rules are tightening. Massachusetts proposed a resale ceiling of 110% of face value on 16 July 2026, and a District of Columbia resale cap takes effect on 1 January 2027. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton opened a probe in July 2026 into World Cup tickets cancelled shortly before events (Bloomberg Law). No outcome has been reported.
Price setup
The shares closed at $6.59 on 4 November 2026, $6.14 on 6 November 2026 and $5.85 on 9 November 2026. They fell to $5.65 on 10 November 2026, the session before the after-hours report, and closed at $5.58 on 11 November 2026, the first session after it. Most of the November decline came before the results.
The last close sits below the 50-day moving average of $5.86 and well under the 200-day moving average of $8.15, both as of 11 November 2026. The nearest reference below is the 52-week closing low of $5.30 on 28 September 2026. A close under it would confirm the lag call. The 52-week high is $19.86, set intraday on 12 November 2025.
SEC Form 4 filings dated 20 October 2026 and 4 November 2026 report shares withheld for taxes at $5.86 and $6.04, including 18,128 and 18,130 shares from CEO Eric Baker. These are tax withholdings, not open-market purchases or sales. A director, Andrew Raab, received a grant of 51,195 shares on 16 October 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 1 January 2027: District of Columbia resale price cap takes effect. Tests how far resale price caps spread beyond one jurisdiction and how much they narrow StubHub's marketplace economics.
- 4 January 2027: Michael Noonan takes office as chief financial officer, succeeding Connie James. The new CFO will set the 2027 outlook, including whether adjusted EBITDA margin gains continue as growth slows.
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results and first 2027 guidance. Shows whether full-year adjusted EBITDA lands within $400–420 million, whether free cash flow recovers after the negative third quarter, and what growth 2027 guidance implies.
What would change the view
A daily close above $8.08, the 14 August 2026 close and the highest of the past three months, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA reported above the $420 million top of guidance.
What it trades with
StubHub trades with demand for live events and consumer discretionary spending, with other ticket resellers, and on headlines about resale regulation. Second-quarter 2026 results were lifted by FIFA World Cup demand, so year-over-year comparisons in the second half of 2026 run against a flattered quarter. Quarterly free cash flow swings with the timing of buyer receipts and seller payments, as the move from $309.7 million in the second quarter to negative $410.1 million in the third quarter shows (8-K filings, 12 August 2026 and 10 November 2026).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 GMS was $2.62 billion, up 7% year over year; revenue was $502.0 million, up 7%; net income was $33.6 million. StubHub Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $124.1 million, up 84%, a 25% margin; nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $301.8 million. StubHub Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was negative $410.1 million; nine-month free cash flow was $190.1 million. StubHub Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Net leverage was 2.5 times trailing adjusted EBITDA at 30 September 2026, versus 4.5 times at 31 December 2025; cash was $1.17 billion and term-loan principal $1.32 billion. StubHub Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Full-year 2026 GMS guidance was raised to $10.175–10.375 billion (11–13% growth); adjusted EBITDA guidance stayed at $400–420 million. StubHub Q3 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter EPS of $0.05 missed the $0.11 consensus and revenue of $501.95 million missed the $513.88 million estimate. Benzinga earnings report · as of
- JPMorgan kept Neutral and lowered its target to $8; Evercore ISI kept Outperform and lowered its target to $13. Benzinga analyst ratings feed · as of
- StubHub extended Term Loan B maturities to October 2033 and its revolver to October 2031; Moody's upgraded its Corporate Family Rating to B2 from B3. StubHub press release on senior credit facilities extension · as of
Sources
- StubHub Holdings, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- StubHub Q3 2026 slides: margins soar despite stock decline · investing.com ·
- StubHub Announces Extension of Senior Credit Facilities · s204.q4cdn.com ·
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