VFC · V.F.
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $23.53
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $23.53, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 43.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $23.53, over the $22.27 52-week high of 21 April 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter report showing Vans revenue flat or growing, or a raised fiscal 2027 revenue outlook, would also prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 26 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2,695
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −3.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 55.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 13.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −3,096
- Price to earnings (×)
- 22.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.2
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 17.7
All filed numbers
What V.F. reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2,695 | −3.8 | 55.4 | 13.7 |
| first filed | 1,669 | −5.2 | 54.9 | −5.0 |
| first filed | 2,166 | +1.0 | 56.4 | 2.8 |
| first filed | 2,876 | +1.5 | 56.6 | 10.1 |
| first filed | 2,803 | +1.6 | 52.2 | 11.2 |
| first filed | 1,761 | −0.5 | 53.9 | −4.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 347 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 370 | 285 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 27 September 2025 | +1.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 830 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 443 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt and finance leases plus short-term borrowings | 3,539 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −3,096 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +13.7% on a year | 75.8 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −88.9% on a year | 5.7 |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,886 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,984 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,033 |
| Market value ($M) | 8,141 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 11,236 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 17.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 22.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.0 days of average trading to cover, +2.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.3M | $142K |
The thesis
V.F. Corporation's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months, because the price has moved ahead of Vans, its largest problem brand. The 28 October 2026 report showed a wide profit beat. Vans revenue still fell 10%, and the full-year revenue outlook was reaffirmed, not raised. The third-quarter report, estimated for about 27 January 2027, settles whether Vans improves to the second-half outlook of a 2% or better decline.
The shares closed at $20.64 on 11 November 2026, a 41.0% gain over three months on adjusted daily closes. That price already credits margins, debt reduction and a Vans turn the reported numbers have not yet shown. The rating is Low because the main business test is about two and a half months away, while the price sits within 7.3% of its 52-week high.
Broker support keeps building. Truist raised its target to $25 from $20 on 11 November 2026, rallies.ai reported, after upgrading the shares to Buy with a $20 target in mid-October, according to MarketBeat on 14 October 2026. Barclays raised its target to $28 on 5 November 2026. These moves add attention but not new Vans sales data.
Bullish and bearish views on V.F. Corporation
The bull case on V.F. Corporation (VFC), in brief: the profit beat was wide. The bear case: Vans got worse last quarter.
Bull case
- The profit beat was wide. Adjusted earnings were $0.70 a share on 28 October 2026, against a $0.54 consensus, and revenue of $2.695 billion beat the $2.667 billion estimate, Benzinga reported.
- Margins carried the quarter. Adjusted operating income excluding Dickies was $364 million against guidance of $315 million (Benzinga, 28 October 2026). World Footwear reported on 30 October 2026 that the adjusted gross margin was 55.4%, up 2.9 percentage points.
- Guidance points to faster growth. Press coverage of the 28 October 2026 report has VF guiding third-quarter revenue growth of about 3% or better in constant currency, after 1% excluding Dickies in the second quarter. Benzinga reported a full-year revenue outlook above $9.526 billion, against a $9.509 billion consensus.
- Vans shows early signs of repair. CEO Bracken Darrell said on 28 October 2026 that Vans direct-to-consumer sales grew for the first time in nearly five years. World Footwear reported on 30 October 2026 that management cited strong second-half orders from wholesale partners.
- Debt is falling. Net debt fell $1.1 billion, or 20%, from a year earlier, World Footwear reported on 30 October 2026.
- Bullish brokers keep raising targets. Truist went to $25 from $20 on 11 November 2026, Barclays (Overweight) to $28 on 5 November 2026, and BTIG reiterated Buy at $23 on 28 October 2026.
Bear case
- Vans got worse last quarter. Vans revenue was $547.6 million in the quarter ended 26 September 2026, down 10%. The decline was 9% in the first quarter, and Zacks had modelled an 8.9% drop on 23 October 2026.
- The second half needs a sharp swing. Management expects Vans to decline 2% or less in the second half, after falling about 10% in the second quarter. Inventories rose 7% from a year earlier ahead of that expected demand, according to the 28 October 2026 report.
- The revenue outlook did not rise. VF reaffirmed full-year growth of 2% or better in constant currency and an adjusted operating margin of about 8% on 28 October 2026, despite the second-quarter beat.
- The other brands grew modestly. The North Face rose 4% to $1.21 billion and Timberland rose 4% to $525.9 million in the second quarter. Zacks had modelled 7.5% Timberland growth on 23 October 2026.
- International sales shrank. EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) revenue fell 6% to $1.01 billion and Asia-Pacific fell 7% in constant currency to $361 million, World Footwear reported on 30 October 2026.
- The price is above cautious targets. The $20.64 close on 11 November 2026 sits above post-report targets of $19 at Deutsche Bank (Hold), $16 at BNP Paribas (Neutral) and $16 at Baird (Neutral), all dated 29 October 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $20.64 on 11 November 2026, 7.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $22.27 set on 21 April 2026. The 52-week closing low was $12.62 on 10 September 2026, and the 3-month reference close was $14.74 on 13 August 2026.
Since the post-report surge, the price has held a narrow range. Closes ran from $20.32 on 5 November 2026 to $20.93 on 4 November 2026 across the six sessions to 11 November 2026. As of 11 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $15.75 and the 200-day moving average was $16.83, both well below the last close.
SEC Form 4 filings show director Richard Carucci bought 20,000 shares in the open market at $14.73 on 13 August 2026. The only later filing, on 4 November 2026, records 233,136 shares that Chief Commercial Officer Brent Hyder had withheld for tax at $18.97 on 2 November 2026, which is not an open-market sale. The levels that matter are the $22.27 52-week high above the price and the 200-day average below it.
Catalysts ahead
- 10 December 2026: Record date for the 9-cent quarterly dividend, payable 17 December 2026. It is the only dated company event before the third-quarter report and does not change the Vans question.
- ~27 January 2027 (est.): Third-quarter fiscal 2027 results; date estimated from VF's 28 January 2026 report a year earlier. It is the first report that can show the Vans wholesale improvement behind the second-half outlook of a 2% or better decline, and it tests third-quarter guidance for revenue growth of about 3% or better.
What would change the view
A daily close above $23.53, over the $22.27 52-week high of 21 April 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter report showing Vans revenue flat or growing, or a raised fiscal 2027 revenue outlook, would also prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
VF's three-month gain traces to its own 28 October 2026 report and the broker target increases that followed. Company results therefore carry the case more than moves across consumer brands do. A stronger sector can extend the price but cannot supply Vans sales. The view that company results dominate would be wrong if the shares fell back below the 200-day moving average during a sector-wide decline with no change to VF's outlook.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q2 fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings were $0.70 a share against a $0.54 estimate; sales were $2.695 billion against a $2.667 billion estimate. Benzinga, Q2 results headline · as of
- Vans revenue was $547.6 million, down 10%; The North Face rose 4% to $1.21 billion and Timberland rose 4% to $525.9 million. World Footwear, Q2 FY27 results report · as of
- Adjusted operating income excluding Dickies was $364 million against guidance of $315 million; adjusted gross margin excluding Dickies was 55.4%, up 2.9 percentage points. Benzinga, via Webull; World Footwear · as of
- VF reaffirmed fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 2% or better in constant currency and an adjusted operating margin of about 8%. VF Q2 FY27 report, via Benzinga and World Footwear · as of
- Net debt fell $1.1 billion, or 20%, from a year earlier; net inventories rose 7%. World Footwear, Q2 FY27 results report · as of
- Truist Securities raised its VF target price to $25 from $20. rallies.ai, Truist target headline · as of
- Barclays kept an Overweight rating and raised its VF target to $28. Benzinga headline · as of
- Deutsche Bank kept a Hold rating with a $19 target, up from $18; BNP Paribas upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at $16; Baird kept Neutral at $16. fiscal.ai; Benzinga headlines · as of
Sources
- World Footwear ·
- VF Corp. Finds Its Winning Formula With North Face and Timberland, but Vans Lags · webull.com
- VF Corporation exceeds expectations in second quarter · fashionunited.uk ·
- VF Corp: Truist Securities raises target price to $25 from $20 · rallies.ai
- V.F. (NYSE:VFC) Stock Bumped Up to "Strong-Buy" by Truist Financial · marketbeat.com ·
- Zacks
- VF Corporation Progressed on Transformation in Its Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Delivering Revenue Growth Margin Expansion and Debt Reduction · businesswire.com ·
Related · shared themes
CPRI
Capri Holdings
Capri Holdings' Michael Kors turnaround gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the 30 October 2026 beat-and-raise, despite a…
CROX
Crocs
Crocs, Inc. is more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months: a third-quarter beat and a third guidance raise lifted full-year adjusted…
CRSR
Corsair Gaming
Corsair Gaming's recovery case holds after it beat third-quarter guidance and raised its 2026 outlook on 5 November 2026; the…
EL
Estee Lauder Companies
Estée Lauder's turnaround now shows in sales as well as margins, with first-quarter organic sales up 6% and the fiscal 2027 outlook raised…
See also · stocks to watch