ABX · Abacus Global Management
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $7.73
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 5 November 2026: Q3 2026 revenue of $76.9M and adjusted EPS of $0.29 beat estimates, GAAP diluted EPS doubled to $0.14, and FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $1.05–$1.07.
Price against the kill line
14.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $7.73, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 3.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $7.73, the low close of the recent decline on 14 October 2026, which would show the post-earnings recovery has failed. Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS below the $0.28 low end of the guide, or a cut to the $1.05–$1.07 full-year guide, would also show the case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 10 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 73.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +29.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 87.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 29.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 89.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −307
- Price to earnings (×)
- 30.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 4.4
All filed numbers
What Abacus Global Management reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 73.0 | +29.9 | 87.6 | 29.4 |
| first filed | 59.4 | +34.6 | 89.4 | 30.9 |
| first filed | 71.9 | +116.5 | 88.8 | 31.7 |
| first filed | 63.0 | +123.7 | 87.8 | 35.6 |
| first filed | 56.2 | +93.4 | 89.2 | 40.1 |
| first filed | 44.1 | +105.4 | 83.9 | 47.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 28.2 | 6.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +1.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 90.8 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 89.5 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 23.4 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 331 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −307 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +1310.6% on a year | 0.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 435 |
| Market value ($M) | 862 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,169 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 4.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 13.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 30.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 10.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.8 days of average trading to cover, −1.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $3.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $6.7M |
The thesis
Abacus Global Management's shift from one-off gains on life insurance policies toward recurring management fees now has reported-profit evidence behind it, and the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether the raised full-year guidance holds and whether reported profit keeps closing on adjusted profit.
Abacus reported third-quarter results on 5 November 2026. Revenue was $76.9 million, up 22% from $63.0 million a year earlier. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net income was $14.5 million, and GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.14, per the company's Form 8-K. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.29.
The company set full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at $1.05–$1.07 and fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance at $0.28–$0.30. The shares closed at $8.75 on 5 November 2026 and at $8.78 on 12 November 2026, so the market has not yet rewarded the report. The close of $9.13 on 10 November 2026 was the high of the week, and the shares gave back 3.8% over the next two sessions.
Bullish and bearish views on Abacus Global Management, Inc.
The bull case on Abacus Global Management, Inc. (ABX), in brief: reported profit is catching up. The bear case: margins narrowed.
Bull case
- Reported profit is catching up. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.14 in the third quarter, double the $0.07 of a year earlier, per the 5 November 2026 release. Adjusted EPS was $0.29, so GAAP profit is now about half of adjusted profit.
- Guidance went up. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $1.05–$1.07 from $1.00–$1.05, per the 5 November 2026 release. The fourth-quarter guide is $0.28–$0.30.
- Fee-capital formation accelerated. Longevity fund inflows were $452.4 million in the third quarter and about $997 million year to date, against $604 million for all of 2025, per the release.
- Cash generation improved. Nine-month operating cash flow was $167.4 million versus negative $18.2 million a year earlier, per the release. A $100 million share repurchase program was authorized in August.
- Funding base widened. A securitization of more than $400 million backed by life insurance policies, with investment-grade notes, closed in September, per the company's 25 September 2026 release.
Bear case
- Margins narrowed. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin was 55.0% in the third quarter, down from 60.2% a year earlier, per the 5 November 2026 release.
- Fourth-quarter guide implies a flat quarter. The $0.28–$0.30 adjusted EPS range brackets the $0.29 reported for the third quarter, so the guide does not point to a step up.
- Founders are leaving daily roles. The company's 23 September 2026 release says Sean McNealy, Matthew Ganovsky and Scott Kirby are transitioning from day-to-day operating duties. Form 4 filings show 10b5-1 plan sales of 22,700 to 22,800 shares each at $7.74 on 23 September 2026, and 80,954 shares by McNealy at an average $8.29 on 18 September to 22 September 2026.
- Valuation rests on models. The company disclosed on 24 August 2026 that policy carrying values moved to the Historical Return Method effective the second quarter of 2026. Carrying values depend on actuarial mortality assumptions.
- The shares sit well below the summer high. The last close of $8.78 is 29.4% below the 52-week high of $12.44 set on 6 July 2026, and below the 200-day average.
Price setup
The shares closed at $8.78 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $8.58 and below the 200-day average of $9.17, and the 3-month change is −5.3%.
The 52-week high is $12.44, reached intraday on 6 July 2026. The 52-week closing low is $5.62, set on 20 November 2025. The shares closed at $8.78 on 6 November 2026 and $9.13 on 10 November 2026, a narrow range around the earnings release.
The shares remain above the low of the recent decline, set on 14 October 2026. Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026 show three founders each reporting an "other acquisition or disposition" of 28,027 shares at $8.47 on 30 October 2026. No open-market insider sales appear in filings after 23 September 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results against the $0.28–$0.30 adjusted EPS guide. Settles whether the raised $1.05–$1.07 full-year range holds and whether GAAP profit keeps closing on adjusted profit.
What would change the view
A daily close below $7.73, the low close of the recent decline on 14 October 2026, which would show the post-earnings recovery has failed. Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS below the $0.28 low end of the guide, or a cut to the $1.05–$1.07 full-year guide, would also show the case failing.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The market keeps discounting adjusted earnings because GAAP profit is about half of them. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter GAAP diluted EPS staying near $0.14 or lower while adjusted EPS meets the $0.28–$0.30 guide.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin keeps compressing as revenue mix shifts to fees. Confirmed by: a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin below the 55.0% reported for the third quarter of 2026.
- Fee-capital formation slows after strong inflows. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter longevity fund inflows well below the $452.4 million raised in the third quarter of 2026.
- Founder departures from daily operations weaken execution or lead to further share sales. Confirmed by: new Form 4 or Form 144 sale filings by founders or directors, or a named management change in an 8-K.
- A change in policy valuation assumptions lowers reported earnings. Confirmed by: a company disclosure of revised mortality assumptions or a carrying-value write-down in the 10-K or an 8-K.
What it trades with
Abacus trades on its own company news and on how the market values life settlement assets, not on a sector cluster. Fund inflows, GAAP profit and policy valuations drive it more than broad market moves. The Coventry First defamation case can produce headlines on no schedule. Barrick Mining news, such as the 12 November 2026 Hercules Metals placement, concerns a different company that once used the same ticker.
The evidence, claim by claim (6)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $76.9 million, up 22% from $63.0 million; GAAP net income was $14.5 million; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.14. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release, SEC Form 8-K · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted diluted EPS was $0.29; adjusted EBITDA margin was 55.0% versus 60.2% a year earlier. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release, SEC Form 8-K · as of
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is $1.05–$1.07 and fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance is $0.28–$0.30; full-year adjusted net income guidance is $104.5–$106.5 million. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release, SEC Form 8-K · as of
- Longevity fund inflows were $452.4 million in the third quarter and about $997 million year to date, against $604 million for all of 2025. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release, SEC Form 8-K · as of
- Year-to-date operating cash flow was $167.4 million. Third-quarter 2026 earnings release, SEC Form 8-K · as of
- Three founders each reported 10b5-1 plan open-market sales at $7.74 on 23 September 2026: Ganovsky 22,800 shares, Kirby 22,745 shares, McNealy 22,700 shares. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- Abacus Global Management, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Abacus Life Q3 Earnings: Revenue Up 22% and Guidance Raised · panabee.com
- Abacus Global Management (ABX) Q3 2026 earnings summary · quartr.com