ADSK · Autodesk
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $310.25
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $310.25, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 9.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $310.25, which would put the shares near their 52-week high and show them leading the S&P 500. A fiscal third-quarter report on 24 November 2026 showing current remaining performance obligation growth above the 12% reported for 31 July 2026 would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 28 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2,046
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +16.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 91.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 29.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 2,839
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 661
- Price to earnings (×)
- 33.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 7.0
All filed numbers
What Autodesk reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2,046 | +16.1 | 91.4 | 29.3 |
| first filed | 1,934 | +18.4 | 91.0 | 28.0 |
| first filed | 1,957 | +19.4 | 91.5 | 22.0 |
| first filed | 1,853 | +18.0 | 91.1 | 25.4 |
| first filed | 1,763 | +17.1 | 91.0 | 25.2 |
| first filed | 1,633 | +15.2 | 90.2 | 14.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 593 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 1,642 | 492 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | −1.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 2,896 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 57.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 2,839 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 4,155 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 3,494 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 661 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +10.8% on a year | 4,258 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | 7,430 |
| Receivables ($M) | 684 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,383 |
| Market value ($M) | 55,264 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 54,603 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 7.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 26.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 33.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 16.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.5 days of average trading to cover, −3.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2.2M | $0 |
The thesis
Autodesk's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The rebound that began on Schneider Electric's takeover of PTC has no new company result behind it, and the fiscal third-quarter report on 24 November 2026 settles whether current remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue due within twelve months) still grow 12% or faster.
The shares closed at $259.48 on 12 November 2026, 18.9% below the 52-week high of $320.00 (intraday, 26 November 2025). The close on 5 November 2026 was $269.16, so the shares have eased over the six sessions since. The rise from the autumn lows followed the 5 October 2026 announcement that Schneider Electric will buy PTC, a rival engineering software maker, for about $22.6 billion in cash at a 42.3% premium, per StockStory.
Autodesk has not yet given subscription terms for its next-generation Assistant. Its 15 September 2026 release deferred rollout details to 2027, so no dated paid AI product supports the move.
Bullish and bearish views on Autodesk, Inc.
The bull case on Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), in brief: takeover valuation sets a reference point. The bear case: contracted demand is slowing.
Bull case
- Takeover valuation sets a reference point. Schneider Electric's $22.6 billion cash offer for PTC on 5 October 2026 priced a direct competitor at a 42.3% premium, per StockStory. It gives investors a recent private-market marker for engineering software.
- Reported growth remains double-digit. Fiscal second-quarter revenue was $2,046 million, up 16% from a year earlier, and free cash flow was $561 million, up 24%, per Autodesk's 27 August 2026 release. Adjusted earnings per share of $3.30 beat the $3.12 consensus, per Yahoo Finance.
- Analyst support continues after the last report. Jefferies raised its price target on 9 November 2026, per MarketScreener. Piper Sandler kept Overweight with a $300 target on 28 September 2026, and Guggenheim's target is $283 after its late-August raise.
- Guidance gives a measurable bar. Autodesk guided fiscal third-quarter revenue to $2,125–2,140 million and non-GAAP earnings per share to $3.04–3.09 on 27 August 2026. Full-year revenue guidance is $8,295–8,345 million.
- Construction and infrastructure announcements continue. Autodesk was named a Leader in the IDC MarketScape for construction management software on 28 October 2026, announced new construction platform capabilities on 29 October 2026 and an AI infrastructure-delivery partnership with JTC on 9 November 2026, per company news.
Bear case
- Contracted demand is slowing. Current remaining performance obligations were $5,245 million at 31 July 2026, up 12% from a year earlier versus 18% a quarter before, per the 27 August 2026 release. Total remaining performance obligations rose 2% versus 9%.
- Full-year earnings guidance disappointed. Yahoo Finance reported that the shares fell more than 4% pre-market on 27 August 2026 because fiscal 2027 non-GAAP earnings per share guidance of $12.52–12.60 sat slightly below consensus at the midpoint.
- AI revenue is undated. Autodesk's 15 September 2026 release said the next-generation Assistant was not generally available and deferred subscription terms to 2027.
- AI disruption debate is unresolved. Piper Sandler cut its target to $300 from $338 on 28 September 2026 after OpenAI's Astra release, per Investing.com. Adobe and Autodesk fell together on 4 September 2026.
- The rebound began on a rival's deal. Autodesk was down 21.4% year to date as of 5 October 2026, per StockStory. A rival's takeover price does not change Autodesk's own growth rate.
Price setup
The shares closed at $259.48 on 12 November 2026. The 50-day average of the adjusted closes is $233.67 and the 200-day average is $233.78, so the shares sit above both, which sit almost level with each other. The shares gained 3.1% over three months from the $251.66 close of 14 August 2026.
The recent closes ran $269.16 on 5 November 2026, $261.72 on 6 November 2026, $263.35 on 9 November 2026, $260.11 on 10 November 2026 and $260.01 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $187.72 on 22 June 2026, and the 52-week high is $320.00 (intraday) on 26 November 2025.
The market has priced a recovery: the shares are above both averages ahead of a report that must show contracted growth holding at 12% or better.
Catalysts ahead
- 24 November 2026: Fiscal third-quarter 2027 results and conference call at 2 p.m. Pacific Time. Shows whether current remaining performance obligation growth holds at or above 12% after slowing from 18%, and whether the fiscal 2027 revenue guide of $8,295–8,345 million stands.
- ~25 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q filing for the quarter ended 31 October 2026. Gives the full contracted-revenue and cash flow detail behind the headline numbers; the fiscal second-quarter 10-Q was filed one day after results.
What would change the view
A daily close above $310.25, which would put the shares near their 52-week high and show them leading the S&P 500. A fiscal third-quarter report on 24 November 2026 showing current remaining performance obligation growth above the 12% reported for 31 July 2026 would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Autodesk has traded with large design and creative software names during AI-disruption selloffs, as on 4 September 2026 when Adobe and Autodesk fell together. Its 5 October 2026 gain came from a read-across to PTC, a direct engineering software rival. Construction and infrastructure spending cycles drive its end markets, and the announcements from 28 October to 9 November 2026 all sit in that area.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Schneider Electric agreed to acquire PTC for about $22.6 billion in cash, a 42.3% premium; Autodesk rose about 3.6% pre-market on the news. StockStory via Financial Content · as of
- Fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue was $2,046 million, up 16% from a year earlier; free cash flow was $561 million, up 24%. Autodesk fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release · as of
- Current remaining performance obligations were $5,245 million at 31 July 2026, up 12% from a year earlier versus 18% in the prior quarter; total was up 2% versus 9%. Autodesk fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release · as of
- Autodesk guided fiscal third-quarter 2027 revenue to $2,125–2,140 million and non-GAAP earnings per share to $3.04–3.09; full-year revenue to $8,295–8,345 million. Autodesk fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release · as of
- Autodesk will hold its fiscal third-quarter 2027 results conference call on 24 November 2026 at 2 p.m. Pacific Time. Autodesk release, conference call invitation · as of
- Autodesk said its next-generation Assistant was not generally available and deferred rollout details and subscription terms to 2027. Autodesk press release on agentic AI in its three industry clouds · as of
- Piper Sandler kept Overweight and cut its price target to $300 from $338, citing the AI-disruption debate after OpenAI's Astra release. Investing.com, Piper Sandler note report · as of
- Jefferies raised its price target on Autodesk. MarketScreener, Jefferies price target headline · as of
Sources
- Autodesk to announce Q3 fiscal 2027 results on Nov 24 with live webcast · pluang.com
- Autodesk shares fall as fiscal 2027 earnings guidance trails expectations despite Q2 beat · finance.yahoo.com
- Autodesk extends invitation to join financial results conference call · finviz.com
- Finviz
- AUTODESK INC · marketscreener.com
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