BMY · Bristol-Myers Squibb
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $58
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 29 October 2026: Q3 2026 revenue of $13.1 billion rose 7%, adjusted EPS of $1.35 beat the $1.21 consensus, and 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $49.75–$50.25 billion, though adjusted EPS guidance was cut to $6.35–$6.55 on acquired research charges.
Price against the kill line
9.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $58.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 0.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $58, under the 28 October 2026 close of $60.57 and the Leerink Partners ($59) and Wells Fargo ($60) targets. A cut to the $49.75–$50.25 billion revenue guidance or a formal FDA clinical hold on zola-cel would also end the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 13,069
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 68.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 19.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 9,286
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −30,296
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.2
All filed numbers
What Bristol-Myers Squibb reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 13,069 | +6.9 | 68.3 | 19.4 |
| first filed | 12,973 | +5.7 | 71.3 | 31.5 |
| first filed | 11,489 | +2.6 | 70.2 | 28.2 |
| first filed | 12,502 | +1.3 | 67.2 | 11.8 |
| first filed | 12,222 | +2.8 | 71.9 | 25.5 |
| first filed | 12,269 | +0.6 | 72.5 | 14.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 2,536 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 9,243 | 2,162 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 10,652 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1,366 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 9,286 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 12,581 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 42,877 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −30,296 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 9,192 |
| Inventory ($M) | 2,704 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 23,404 |
| Market value ($M) | 129,656 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 159,952 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 14.1 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 7.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.6 days of average trading to cover, +8.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $678K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $2.5M |
The thesis
Bristol Myers Squibb's third-quarter report on 29 October 2026 raised 2026 revenue guidance to $49.75–$50.25 billion, but cut adjusted earnings guidance to $6.35–$6.55 per share on one-time licensing charges. The next quarterly report in early 2027 shows whether the underlying earnings power, which the chief financial officer said rose about $0.15 at the midpoint before those charges, appears in reported numbers.
The shares closed at $62.80 on 10 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes), 6.8% below the 52-week high of $67.39. They closed at $60.57 on 28 October 2026, the day before the report. The story is well known: the pipeline readouts from October are public and the report has passed, so no company-dated event inside the next 30 days has been confirmed.
The report removed the main open question, because revenue guidance rose and no business line missed. Sell-side targets remain split, and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both lowered theirs after the report.
Bullish and bearish views on Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
The bull case on Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), in brief: revenue guidance rose again. The bear case: adjusted earnings guidance fell.
Bull case
- Revenue guidance rose again. The company's 29 October 2026 8-K lifted 2026 revenue guidance to about $49.75–$50.25 billion from $49.0–$50.0 billion. Third-quarter revenue was $13.1 billion, up 7%, and Growth Portfolio sales rose 12% to $7.7 billion.
- Eliquis keeps growing. Eliquis sold $4.69 billion worldwide in the third quarter, up 25%, and the company kept its 2026 Eliquis growth guidance at 20%–25%.
- Newer drugs are scaling. Camzyos sales were $420 million, up 42%, and Cobenfy sales were $57 million, up 33% (company 8-K, 29 October 2026). On 6 November 2026 the company presented 56-week Phase 3 pediatric Camzyos data.
- Cancer pipeline data stack up. On 26 October 2026 the Phase 3 PANKU-Lung01 trial of izalontamab brengitecan showed median progression-free survival of 11.1 versus 5.7 months (hazard ratio 0.40, company news via Benzinga). The company reported positive Phase 3 breast cancer results for the same drug on 4 November 2026.
- Earnings beat estimates before the charge. Adjusted earnings of $1.35 per share beat the Zacks consensus of $1.21 despite a $1.558 billion acquired in-process research and development charge (company 8-K, 29 October 2026).
Bear case
- Adjusted earnings guidance fell. The company cut 2026 adjusted earnings guidance from $6.75–$7.00 to $6.35–$6.55 per share. The 8-K puts the net effect of acquired in-process research and development and licensing income at $(0.58) per share in the quarter and $(0.60) for the year.
- Earnings per share dropped year over year. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.35 against $1.63 a year earlier, down 17%. GAAP earnings per share were $1.05 against $1.08 (8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Opdivo is shrinking. Opdivo sales were $2.37 billion in the third quarter, down 6% (8-K, 29 October 2026). The cancer franchise is still the company's largest.
- Analysts cut targets after the report. Morgan Stanley kept Underweight and lowered its target to $40 on 30 October 2026. Goldman Sachs moved its target to $61 from $63 on the same day, and Leerink Partners downgraded to Market Perform with a $59 target on 5 October 2026.
- Autoimmune cell therapy safety is unresolved. On 23 October 2026 a company spokesperson said a Grade 5 event, the trial grading for a death, in the zola-cel multiple sclerosis program occurred after the trial pause. The company said it is working closely with the FDA.
Price setup
The shares closed at $62.80 on 10 November 2026. That is 6.8% below the 52-week high of $67.39 and 1.9% lower than three months earlier. The 14-day Relative Strength Index, a 0–100 gauge of recent buying versus selling, reads 56.2, a neutral level. The 28 October 2026 close of $60.57 sits $2.23 below the latest close.
Goldman Sachs' $61 target and Wells Fargo's $60 target now sit under the share price. Piper Sandler's $78, Guggenheim's $75 and JPMorgan's $73 targets sit well above it. The shares are priced between the two groups of analysts.
Crowding evidence is limited. The earnings date has passed, the Relative Strength Index is not stretched, and no share issuance or insider selling shows in the recent company news.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether revenue lands in the $49.75–$50.25 billion range and adjusted earnings reach $6.35–$6.55 per share.
What would change the view
A daily close below $58, under the 28 October 2026 close of $60.57 and the Leerink Partners ($59) and Wells Fargo ($60) targets. A cut to the $49.75–$50.25 billion revenue guidance or a formal FDA clinical hold on zola-cel would also end the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Further acquired research charges keep cutting adjusted earnings even as revenue rises. Confirmed by: the next quarterly report lowers adjusted EPS guidance below $6.35–$6.55 on new licensing deals.
- The zola-cel pause turns into a regulatory setback after the Grade 5 event. Confirmed by: a company or FDA announcement of a formal clinical hold or termination of the autoimmune program.
- Opdivo erosion outpaces growth from newer drugs. Confirmed by: opdivo sales fall by more than the 6% recorded in the third quarter while Growth Portfolio growth slows below 12%.
- Shares fail to hold post-report gains while targets are cut. Confirmed by: a daily close below $58, under the Leerink Partners and Wells Fargo targets.
What it trades with
Bristol Myers trades with large US pharmaceutical shares more than with the broad technology market. Policy news on Medicare drug-price negotiation moves it, since Eliquis is in the first negotiation cohort with negotiated prices effective 1 January 2026 per the company. Cancer trial readouts from partners BioNTech and SystImmune also move the shares.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 revenue $13.1B, up 7%; Growth Portfolio $7.7B, up 12%; Eliquis $4.69B, up 25%; Opdivo $2.37B, down 6%; Camzyos $420M, up 42%; Cobenfy $57M, up 33%. Bristol Myers Squibb Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- 2026 guidance: revenue raised to about $49.75–$50.25B from $49.0–$50.0B; non-GAAP EPS cut to $6.35–$6.55 from $6.75–$7.00; acquired IPRD and licensing impact $(0.60) per share. Bristol Myers Squibb Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 non-GAAP EPS $1.35 versus $1.63 a year earlier; GAAP EPS $1.05 versus $1.08; acquired IPRD charges $1,558M. Bristol Myers Squibb Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Non-GAAP EPS of $1.35 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21. Zacks, BMY Q3 earnings · as of
- Phase 3 PANKU-Lung01: izalontamab brengitecan median progression-free survival 11.1 vs 5.7 months, hazard ratio 0.40. Company news via Benzinga · as of
- Morgan Stanley kept Underweight and lowered its price target to $40; Goldman Sachs moved its target to $61 from $63. Benzinga analyst actions · as of
- Adjusted daily close $62.80; 52-week high $67.39. Split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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