CRCT · Cricut

The thesis

Cricut's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Machine sales are growing again, and management expects fourth-quarter Products revenue to rise from the third quarter. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected around early March 2027 but not yet dated by Cricut, shows whether that demand held through holiday discounting without one-time help to margins.

Cricut reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $188.6 million on 3 November 2026, against $170.4 million a year earlier, and its 10-Q filed 4 November 2026 shows the same figure. Products revenue, mainly machines and accessories, rose 17% to $102.7 million. Platform revenue, mostly subscriptions, rose nearly 4% to $85.9 million. Diluted earnings per share were $0.13, against $0.10 a year earlier and a $0.06 consensus estimate, per Benzinga.

The rating is Medium because the sales recovery, the January dividends and a debt-free balance sheet support the shares, while the price sits well above every published analyst target and the chief executive has been a steady seller. The price already reflects a recovery: the shares rose 47.6% in the three months to the 12 November 2026 close of $8.50, while MarketBeat's consensus target was $4.73 on 5 November 2026.

Bullish and bearish views on Cricut, Inc.

The bull case on Cricut, Inc. (CRCT), in brief: Products revenue returned to growth. The bear case: part of the margin gain will not repeat.

Bull case

• Products revenue returned to growth. Third-quarter 2026 Products revenue rose 17% to $102.7 million from $87.7 million, Cricut reported on 3 November 2026. The Maker 5 and StickerPix launches in September were the first new hardware in the reported numbers.
• Machine demand improved two quarters running. Global sales of connected machines to consumers, known as sell-out, grew by double digits for the second straight quarter, according to a summary of the 3 November 2026 call. Management called its sell-out data directional, since it does not cover every channel.
• Full-year growth is now expected. Management expects 2026 to be Cricut's first year of revenue growth since 2021, with Platform revenue and paid subscribers rising in the fourth quarter both from the third quarter and from a year earlier, per the same call summary.
• Profit rose faster than sales. Third-quarter gross margin was 57.7% against 55.2% a year earlier. Operating income rose to $33.9 million from $22.7 million, and net income to $27.8 million from $20.5 million, per the 3 November 2026 release.
• Cash return increased. On 3 November 2026 the board declared a $0.10 semi-annual dividend and a $0.70 special dividend, to be paid in January 2027, and replenished the buyback authorization to $50 million. Cash and marketable securities were about $273 million at 30 September 2026 with no debt, and Cricut renewed its $300 million credit line through 22 October 2031, per the call summary.

Bear case

• Part of the margin gain will not repeat. Sales of excess and obsolete inventory and the final portion of refunds on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act helped third-quarter gross margin, according to the 3 November 2026 call summary. Management said fourth-quarter gross margin typically runs lower because it is the most promotional quarter.
• Subscriptions are growing slowly. Paid subscribers were 3.07 million at 30 September 2026, against 3.00 million a year earlier, and active users were 5.99 million against 5.88 million, per the release. Platform revenue grew nearly 4% from $82.8 million.
• Inventory has built up. Inventory was $146.9 million at 30 September 2026 against $102.7 million at 31 December 2025, and nine-month operating cash flow fell to $100.9 million from $117.8 million, per the third-quarter release.
• The chief executive keeps selling. Ashish Arora, chief executive, director and a 10% owner, reported open-market sales under a Rule 10b5-1 plan in SEC Form 4 filings dated 19 August 2026 through 23 October 2026, most recently 180,000 shares at an average $6.30 on 21 October to 23 October 2026.
• Analysts remain far below the price. Barclays kept an Underweight rating on 5 November 2026 while raising its target to $6 from $4, and MarketBeat showed a Strong Sell consensus with an average target of $4.73 the same day.

Price setup

The shares repriced in one session. Benzinga showed them up 50.5% at $8.98 during trading on 4 November 2026, the day after the report. They set the 52-week intraday high of $9.70 on 5 November 2026 and closed at $9.25 that day.

Since then the shares have eased. They closed at $8.79 on 9 November 2026, $8.88 on 11 November 2026 and $8.50 on 12 November 2026, 12.4% below the 52-week high, with no new company results or guidance in that span. The three-month gain to 12 November 2026 is 47.6%, from a $5.76 close on 14 August 2026.

As of 12 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $6.49 and the 200-day moving average $4.97, both far below the last close. Before the report, the chief executive's October Form 4 sales were executed at $6.26–$6.52, which marks the range the shares traded in before the repricing. The 52-week closing low was $3.74 on 31 March 2026. The January dividends of $0.10 and $0.70 will lower the quoted price by about that amount on the ex-dividend date, which matters when comparing later prices with these levels.

Catalysts ahead

• 27 November 2026: U.S. Black Friday, the start of peak holiday promotions in Cricut's most promotional quarter. Holiday demand for Maker 5 and StickerPix drives fourth-quarter Products revenue, though the results surface only in the fourth-quarter report.
• ~2 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report; Cricut has not announced a date. It shows whether Products revenue rose from the $102.7 million of the third quarter as management expects, whether paid subscribers grew, and what gross margin looks like without tariff refunds.

What would change the view

A daily close below $6.70, above the $6.26–$6.52 range of the chief executive's October Form 4 sales, which would erase most of the gain after the 3 November 2026 report. Fourth-quarter 2026 Products revenue below the $102.7 million of the third quarter would also break the recovery case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Launch-quarter retailer orders overstate consumer demand, so Products revenue falls back after the third quarter. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 Products revenue below the $102.7 million of the third quarter, or inventory still above $146.9 million at 31 December 2026.
• Gross margin weakens once tariff refunds and excess-inventory gains are gone and holiday promotions begin. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 gross margin below the fourth quarter of 2025, with management citing discounting or the end of tariff refunds.
• Subscription growth stalls, weakening the higher-margin part of the business. Confirmed by: paid subscribers below 3.07 million at 31 December 2026, against management's expectation of growth from the third quarter.
• Continued insider selling and bearish analyst ratings weigh on shares trading far above published targets. Confirmed by: further Form 4 sales by the chief executive alongside new Underweight or Sell ratings with targets near the $4.73 consensus.
• Weak U.S. holiday spending or new tariffs on imported hardware hit machine demand and product costs. Confirmed by: soft U.S. holiday retail sales reports for November and December 2026, or new duties on consumer electronics imports.

What it trades with

Cricut's main driver is company-specific: holiday machine demand, retailer replenishment and subscriber trends. The shares moved on Cricut's own report on 4 November 2026, a session in which Benzinga logged double-digit gains across several unrelated companies reporting results.

The shared factors most likely to move Cricut alongside other consumer names are U.S. holiday retail sales and consumer spending data. Tariff policy is a second shared factor, since tariff refunds helped third-quarter gross margin and new duties on imported hardware would raise product costs.