CPIX · Cumberland Pharmaceuticals
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $8.49
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
30.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $8.49, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 23.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $8.49, the 23 October 2026 close before the systemic sclerosis results, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; Cumberland reporting the complete ifetroban NDA submitted to the FDA would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 78.8
- Operating margin (%)
- −89.8
- Price to earnings (×)
- 1.3
All filed numbers
What Cumberland Pharmaceuticals reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2.2 | — | — | −89.8 |
| first filed | 0.2 | — | — | −1898.7 |
| first filed | 9.1 | — | 78.8 | −34.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −1.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 68.8 | 77.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −0.9 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 80.6 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 9 March 2026; −87.9% on a year | 0.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 2.1 |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 72.5 |
| Market value ($M) | 88.2 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 1.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.0 days of average trading to cover, −3.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Cumberland Pharmaceuticals shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it while the company's main filing has no date. That filing is the New Drug Application (NDA) for ifetroban in the heart disease of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). The 10 November 2026 third-quarter report settled the funding question with $80.6 million of cash and no debt. What would settle the call is a dated NDA submission, or signs that the FDA will take the Phase 2 data as pivotal.
The shares closed at $5.30 on 10 November 2026, before the report, and at $6.12 on 11 November 2026, the first session after it. That close is 34.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $9.28 set on 26 August 2026, and the three-month price change is −22.5%. At $6.12, with 14,992,812 shares outstanding at 30 September 2026, the market values the company close to its $80.6 million cash balance. In effect the price gives ifetroban little value of its own until the FDA path becomes clearer.
The rating is Low for three reasons. The company still gives no submission date. The FDA suggested a Phase 3 trial twice, in September 2025 and January 2026, according to Cumberland's 26 October 2026 release. And no confirmed event falls in the next three months.
Bullish and bearish views on Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc.
The bull case on Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CPIX), in brief: the cash question is answered. The bear case: the FDA has questioned the evidence.
Bull case
- The cash question is answered. Cumberland's 10 November 2026 results release reports $80,581,021 of cash at 30 September 2026, up from $11,444,693 at 31 December 2025, with nothing drawn on the revolving credit line. Seeking Alpha reported on 10 November 2026 that management outlined a plan to fund operations for more than five years.
- Spending is low. The loss from continuing operations was $1,122,071, or $0.07 per share, in the third quarter of 2026. Research and development (R&D) expense was $841,162, per the same release.
- The filing is taking shape. The FDA granted rolling review after a pre-NDA meeting, so finished sections can be sent before the full application, according to the 26 October 2026 release. The 10 November 2026 release adds that the FDA has conditionally accepted DYSCORBAN as the proprietary (brand) name.
- A DMD heart signal is on record. In the 12-month Phase 2 FIGHT DMD trial, high-dose ifetroban improved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) by 5.4% in absolute terms. The comparison was against placebo plus propensity-matched natural history patients (p=0.002), per the 26 October 2026 release. Ifetroban holds Orphan Drug, Rare Pediatric Disease and Fast Track designations for this use.
- Safety coverage is long. The company reports no treatment-related serious adverse events across 36 months of DMD treatment. It also cites a safety database of more than 1,400 subjects in about 30 studies.
Bear case
- The FDA has questioned the evidence. Cumberland's 26 October 2026 release says the FDA suggested a Phase 3 trial at the September 2025 End-of-Phase 2 meeting and at the January 2026 Type C meeting. The FDA also raised issues with the endpoint, the comparator and the statistical plan. The company is going ahead with the Phase 2 trial as its pivotal study.
- The filing still has no date. The 10 November 2026 release describes a planned rolling submission without a timetable. Its forward-looking statements still list a need for additional capital as a risk.
- There is no product business left. Third-quarter revenue of $2,156,356 included $1,950,000 of transition services revenue from the Apotex sale and $206,356 of net revenue, per the 10 November 2026 release. The commercial brands were sold to Apotex on 1 July 2026 for $100 million.
- The second program gave no efficacy read. The Phase 2a systemic sclerosis (SSc) trial enrolled 41 patients, 31 on ifetroban and 10 on placebo. The company said on 23 October 2026 that the trial was not designed or powered to evaluate efficacy. Gastrointestinal and bleeding-related events were more common on ifetroban.
- The timetable has slipped before. Cumberland's 28 August 2026 Form 8-K withdrew the expected August window for DMD extension data because the data were not available.
Price setup
The last close was $6.12 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $6.65 and above the 200-day moving average of $4.91, both as of that date. The three-month change is −22.5%, measured from the $7.90 close of 13 August 2026.
The low point after the SSc release was the $4.44 close of 4 November 2026. The shares then closed at $5.01 on 5 November 2026, $5.37 on 9 November 2026 and $5.30 on 10 November 2026, before the post-report session. The 52-week intraday high is $9.28, set on 26 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $1.90, set on 17 November 2025.
A close back above the 50-day average would show the post-report gain holding. A slide back toward the early-November closes would show the cash news already priced in. The special dividend of $1.50 per share, paid on 31 July 2026, separates quoted prices from adjusted prices before that date. That is why the closing low is $1.50 on an adjusted basis.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. The full filing would give the company's liquidity discussion and any stated cash runway beyond the figures in the results release.
- Undated: First rolling NDA submission for ifetroban in DMD cardiomyopathy. The company has given no date. A dated submission would show the filing path moving from plan to action.
- Undated: Open-label extension cardiac MRI analyses at Months 24 and 36 in DMD. These results feed the NDA. They would show whether the 12-month LVEF gain holds over longer treatment.
What would change the view
A daily close above $8.49, the 23 October 2026 close before the systemic sclerosis results, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; Cumberland reporting the complete ifetroban NDA submitted to the FDA would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
Cumberland trades on its own company news more than on any sector. The rise after the 20 October 2026 investor-call announcement, the after-hours fall following the 23 October 2026 SSc release, and the move to $6.12 in the 11 November 2026 session after the report all followed company disclosures. On 11 November 2026 the shares were listed among health care stocks moving in that day's trading. With cash close to the company's market value, the shares now respond mainly to FDA and filing headlines, and much less to broader biotech moves or financing risk.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Cash and equivalents were $80,581,021 at 30 September 2026, up from $11,444,693 at 31 December 2025; the revolving credit line balance was $0, down from $5,240,733. Cumberland Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 revenue was $2,156,356, of which $1,950,000 was transition services revenue; the loss from continuing operations was $1,122,071, or $0.07 per share. Cumberland Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 research and development expense was $841,162; shares outstanding were 14,992,812. Cumberland Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Management outlined a plan to fund operations for more than five years while preparing the rolling NDA submission for ifetroban in DMD. Seeking Alpha, 10 November 2026 · as of
- The FDA conditionally accepted DYSCORBAN as the proprietary name for ifetroban; the company plans a rolling NDA submission and gives no date. Cumberland Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- High-dose ifetroban improved LVEF by 5.4% absolute versus placebo plus propensity-matched natural history controls (p=0.002) in the 12-month FIGHT DMD trial. Cumberland press release, 26 October 2026 · as of
- The FDA suggested a Phase 3 trial at the September 2025 End-of-Phase 2 meeting and the January 2026 Type C meeting; the company is proceeding with Phase 2 as pivotal. Cumberland press release, 26 October 2026 · as of
- The Phase 2a ASSIST-SSc trial enrolled 41 patients (31 ifetroban, 10 placebo); the company said it was not designed or powered to evaluate efficacy. Cumberland press release via RTTNews, 23 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- CUMBERLAND PHARMACEUTICALS INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Cumberland outlines plan to fund operations for over 5 years as it prepares rolling NDA submission for ifetroban in DMD · seekingalpha.com
- Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Announces Plans to File New Drug Application for Ifetroban DMD Program · placera.se ·
- RTTNews ·
- Cumberland Pharmaceuticals Announces ASSIST-SSc Trial Top-Line Results · placera.se ·
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