IQ · iQIYI

The thesis

iQIYI's American depositary shares (ADSs) are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Revenue is shrinking, the micro-drama, artificial intelligence (AI) and overseas pivot has no reported revenue line, and the shares trade under Nasdaq's $1.00 minimum price. The third-quarter report on 16 November 2026 settles whether revenue confirms the pivot.

The latest reported quarter was weak at the top line and loss-making. Second-quarter 2026 revenue fell 5% from a year earlier to RMB6.29 billion, and the operating loss was RMB104.8 million, according to the company's 18 August 2026 release. Free cash flow of RMB319.6 million and 56% growth in content distribution are the parts that worked.

The ADSs closed at $0.89 on 12 November 2026. They are 61.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $2.30 set on 20 November 2025 and 33.9% lower than the $1.35 close of 14 August 2026. Company news since the August report is limited to product and partnership announcements and the earnings-date notice. Nothing reported since then explains a recovery toward the $1.00 line.

The market has already priced in a company that the 3-month decline shows investors no longer trust to grow. A report that attaches revenue to the pivot is the main way that changes.

Bullish and bearish views on iQIYI, Inc.

The bull case on iQIYI, Inc. (IQ), in brief: cash generation held up. The bear case: core revenue keeps shrinking.

Bull case

• Cash generation held up. Second-quarter free cash flow was RMB319.6 million in the 18 August 2026 release, even with an operating loss. That funds content and buybacks without new financing.
• Content distribution is growing fast. Revenue from licensing content to others rose 56% from a year earlier to RMB681.5 million in the second quarter (18 August 2026 release). It is the one disclosed revenue line moving up.
• The pivot is producing announcements. iQIYI said it launched what it called China's first AI film studio in Shanghai and expanded its partnership with Siam Piwat in Thailand (company releases, 4 November 2026). On 7 November 2026 it announced it used its NadouPro AI tool to restore a 90-year-old lost film. Revenue attached to overseas or AI-produced content in the third-quarter release would be the first measurable evidence.
• The company has been repurchasing shares. The 18 August 2026 release said iQIYI had bought back about 21.8 million ADSs for US$24.1 million through 30 June 2026.
• A large institution holds a sizeable stake. T. Rowe Price Associates reported 8.8% of the class as of 31 August 2026 in a Schedule 13G amendment filed 8 September 2026.
• The comparison base is low. Third-quarter 2025 revenue was RMB6.68 billion, down 8% from a year earlier, with a net loss attributable to iQIYI of RMB248.9 million (iQIYI results release for that quarter).

Bear case

• Core revenue keeps shrinking. Membership and online advertising each fell 2% from a year earlier in the second quarter, and total revenue fell 5% (18 August 2026 release).
• The pivot has no revenue line. The 18 August 2026 release gave no standalone micro-drama or overseas revenue, and the November announcements carry no financial figures.
• The shares trade under the Nasdaq threshold. The ADSs closed at $0.89 on 12 November 2026 and at a 52-week closing low of $0.83 on 30 October 2026. Nasdaq's rules treat 30 consecutive business days under $1.00 as a deficiency and open a 180-day cure period.
• Analyst targets are mixed. Google Finance lists J.P. Morgan at $1.20 (Hold), Goldman Sachs at $1.40 (Hold), CMB International at $1.52 (Buy) and Citi at $1.60 (Buy). Even the Hold targets sit above the last close, so they offer no support to a lag call.
• Control sits with one holder. Baidu is the controlling shareholder and consolidates iQIYI, which limits free float and independent governance.

Price setup

The ADSs closed at $0.89 on 12 November 2026. The closes from 5 November to 12 November 2026 ran in a narrow range from $0.88 (10 November 2026) to $0.96 (6 November 2026 and 11 November 2026), so the shares have moved sideways just under $1.00 for the last six sessions.

The 50-day average of adjusted closes is $0.96 and the 200-day average is $1.2, both as of 12 November 2026. The last close is under both. The 52-week closing low is $0.83 on 30 October 2026. The three-month change is −33.9%.

The nearest event is the third-quarter report before the US market opens on 16 November 2026. The shares sit close enough to $1.00 that one report can move them across it in either direction. iQIYI is a foreign private issuer, so no Form 4 insider filings exist to observe.

Catalysts ahead

• 16 November 2026: iQIYI third-quarter 2026 results before the US market opens, call at 6:30 AM Eastern. Shows whether content distribution growth repeats, cash flow stays positive, total revenue beats the RMB6.68 billion of a year earlier, and micro-drama or overseas revenue appears as a separate line.
• 16 November 2026: Baidu third-quarter 2026 results before the US market opens, call at 7:30 AM Eastern. Baidu consolidates iQIYI; its segment disclosure and any comment on the stake can move the ADSs on the same morning.

What would change the view

A daily close above $1.21, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter 2026 revenue above the RMB6.68 billion of a year earlier would also show the shares leading.

What it trades with

iQIYI trades with US-listed Chinese internet names. Baidu, which consolidates iQIYI, announced that it reports its own third-quarter results before the US market opens on 16 November 2026, the same morning as iQIYI, so its segment disclosure and any comment on the stake reach the shares on the same day. Revenue depends on Chinese consumer spending on subscriptions and advertising. Moves since late October track company-specific news and the position against the $1.00 line.