PATH · UiPath
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $15.11
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $15.11, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 17.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $15.11, which would put the shares well above the 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500 again; fiscal third-quarter ARR above the top of UiPath's $1.997 billion outlook would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 8 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 410
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +13.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 80.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 7.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 363
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,284
- Price to earnings (×)
- 19.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.3
All filed numbers
What UiPath reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 410 | +13.4 | 80.4 | 7.7 |
| first filed | 418 | +17.3 | 81.6 | 6.7 |
| first filed | 481 | +13.6 | 84.6 | 16.7 |
| first filed | 411 | +15.9 | 83.3 | 3.2 |
| first filed | 362 | +14.4 | 82.2 | −5.6 |
| first filed | 357 | +6.4 | 82.1 | −4.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 52.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 362 | 36.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | −3.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 373 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 10.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 363 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,284 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,284 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +0.7% on a year | 615 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +14.0% on a year | 1,378 |
| Receivables ($M) | 307 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,949 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,940 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 5,656 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 3.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 37.0 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 19.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 19.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.7 days of average trading to cover, −6.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $61.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $87.4M |
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
UiPath's move from robotic-process automation to AI agent orchestration has not yet shown up in company-wide growth, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fiscal third-quarter report, which UiPath will release after the market closes on 3 December 2026, settles it. The measures that decide it are annual recurring revenue (ARR) against the $1.992–1.997 billion outlook, net new ARR against the $37 million of the previous quarter, and the AI ARR figure.
The shares closed at $13.10 on 12 November 2026. That is 34.0% below the 52-week high of $19.84 set on 8 December 2025 and 18.2% below the $16.01 close of 14 August 2026. The market has priced in slow growth: the shares fell 12.4% on 4 September 2026 after the second-quarter report despite a revenue beat and a raised outlook, Benzinga reported, and they have not recovered the loss.
The business evidence is still the fiscal second-quarter report of 3 September 2026. UiPath's 10-Q for the period ended 31 July 2026 was filed on 8 September 2026. Since then the news has been partnerships and product announcements, plus continued insider sales under pre-arranged plans.
Bullish and bearish views on UiPath, Inc.
The bull case on UiPath, Inc. (PATH), in brief: recurring revenue kept expanding. The bear case: analysts turned more negative.
Bull case
- Recurring revenue kept expanding. UiPath reported ARR of $1.938 billion at 31 July 2026, up 12% from a year earlier, with $37 million of net new ARR and 109% dollar-based net retention (fiscal second-quarter results, 3 September 2026).
- Revenue is growing in double digits. Revenue for the quarter ended 31 July 2026 was $410 million, up 13% from a year earlier. UiPath guided fiscal third-quarter revenue to $440–445 million.
- AI revenue has a number. RBC Capital reported on 23 September 2026 that UiPath's AI ARR reached $250 million in the fiscal second quarter. RBC kept a Hold rating with a $14 target on 2 November 2026, according to Investing.com.
- Platform ties keep widening. On 10 November 2026 UiPath announced it is a launch partner for Google Cloud's Gemini for Healthcare, available in preview. On 28 October 2026 it announced an integration of Anthropic's Claude models.
- Industry recognition continues. Everest Group named UiPath a Leader in its 2026 Intelligent Process Automation Platforms PEAK Matrix assessment on 5 November 2026.
Bear case
- Analysts turned more negative. DA Davidson moved to Underperform with a $10 target on 28 September 2026. Truist cut its target to $14 from $17 on 23 September 2026. Canaccord Genuity downgraded UiPath to Hold on 4 September 2026.
- AI pricing faces pushback. DA Davidson surveyed six industry partners and five enterprise customers. Some found the Maestro orchestration product expensive or hard to understand and questioned paying UiPath to orchestrate AI that model providers can deliver directly.
- The fourth-quarter outlook is demanding. DA Davidson cited a fiscal fourth-quarter net new ARR outlook of $73 million, a 28% increase from the prior year, against $37 million in the quarter ended 31 July 2026.
- Insiders keep selling. Chief Executive Daniel Dines sold 2,500,000 shares at an average of $13.23 on 15 October 2026 and 16 October 2026. Chief Legal & Administrative Officer Brad Brubaker sold 27,404 shares at $13.03 on 9 November 2026, and CPO and CTO Raghavendra Malpani sold 29,565 shares at $14.00 on 22 October 2026. All three sales were made under Rule 10b5-1 plans, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
- No sign of a rebound. The shares closed at $12.83 on 10 November 2026 and at $13.10 on 12 November 2026, still 18.2% below the close of three months earlier.
Price setup
The last close was $13.10 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $13.51 and above the 200-day average of $12.32, both adjusted, as of that close. The shares have held between $12.83 and $13.14 across the five sessions from 5 November to 12 November 2026.
The 52-week high is $19.84 (8 December 2025) and the 52-week closing low is $9.38 (10 April 2026). The shares sit about 40% above that low, and the 200-day average is the nearest level beneath the current price.
The fiscal third-quarter report on 3 December 2026 arrives after the close, so the first session to price the result is 4 December 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 3 December 2026: UiPath fiscal third-quarter 2027 results for the quarter ended 31 October 2026, released after the market closes, with a call at 5:00 pm ET. ARR against the $1.992–1.997 billion outlook, net new ARR against $37 million in the previous quarter, and the AI ARR figure show whether agent orchestration is lifting company-wide growth.
What would change the view
A daily close above $15.11, which would put the shares well above the 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500 again; fiscal third-quarter ARR above the top of UiPath's $1.997 billion outlook would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
UiPath trades with enterprise software names that have been sold on concern that AI models replace workflow software. Its results can also move with the model providers: UiPath integrates Anthropic's Claude, a vendor whose own agent tools DA Davidson's survey respondents named as an alternative to paying for orchestration. Moves in large-cap AI platform stocks and in broad software indexes have affected the shares around reporting dates, including the 4 September 2026 session, when a strong jobs report also pressured the S&P 500.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue was $410 million, up 13% from a year earlier; ARR was $1.938 billion at 31 July 2026, up 12%; net new ARR was $37 million; dollar-based net retention was 109%. UiPath fiscal second-quarter 2027 results release · as of
- UiPath guided ARR to $1.992–1.997 billion as of 31 October 2026 and fiscal third-quarter revenue to $440–445 million. UiPath fiscal second-quarter 2027 results release · as of
- UiPath will release fiscal third-quarter 2027 results after the market closes on 3 December 2026, with a conference call at 5:00 pm ET. UiPath conference call announcement of 5 November 2026 · as of
- RBC Capital reported that UiPath's AI ARR had reached $250 million in the fiscal second quarter. RBC Capital account reported by Investing.com · as of
- DA Davidson downgraded UiPath to Underperform from Neutral and cut its price target to $10 from $16, citing customer and partner resistance to AI pricing. DA Davidson note reported by Benzinga · as of
- Chief Executive Daniel Dines sold 2,500,000 shares at an average of $13.23 on 15 October to 16 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 19 October 2026 · as of
- Chief Legal & Administrative Officer Brad Brubaker sold 27,404 shares at $13.03 on 9 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- UiPath announced it is a launch partner for Google Cloud's Gemini for Healthcare, available in preview. UiPath company news · as of
Sources
- UiPath Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results Conference Call · investingnews.com ·
- UiPath Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results · seekingalpha.com
- UiPath Inc (PATH) · investing.com
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