TENB · Tenable Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $51.78
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $51.78, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 15.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $51.78, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (29 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 276
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +9.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 77.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 280
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −284
- Price to earnings (×)
- 269.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 4.3
All filed numbers
What Tenable Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 276 | +9.5 | 77.8 | 6.0 |
| first filed | 269 | +8.6 | 77.5 | 4.6 |
| first filed | 262 | +9.6 | 78.4 | 3.3 |
| first filed | 261 | +10.5 | 78.8 | 3.4 |
| first filed | 252 | +11.2 | 77.5 | 2.8 |
| first filed | 247 | +11.8 | 78.0 | −3.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 15.8 | 11.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −4.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 288 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 7.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 280 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 495 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt plus secured debt | 779 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −284 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +6.5% on a year | 863 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +14.4% on a year | 1,063 |
| Receivables ($M) | 211 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −26.5 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,260 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,544 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 4.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 97.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 269.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 6.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.7 days of average trading to cover, −3.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $616K | $5.1M |
The thesis
Tenable's shares are more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months, because fourth-quarter guidance points to revenue growth slowing to about 6.9% from 9.5%. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027 with the first 2027 outlook, settles whether the Tenable One platform shift lifts growth again.
The shares have given back much of their pre-report run since the 28 October 2026 results. They closed at $41.96 on 10 November 2026, 19.0% below their 52-week high of $51.78 and up 4.8% over three months, per adjusted daily closes. GuruFocus reported a 3.9% fall on 10 November 2026 and a 10.8% drop over the prior week.
The fall coincided with a peer sell-off. Qualys beat forecasts and raised its outlook on 9 November 2026, and its shares fell 13.5% in the next session, to $175.11 on 10 November 2026. The story is well known: the platform story is widely covered, and two vulnerability-management companies have now sold off after beat-and-raise quarters within two weeks.
The lower price eases the valuation gap. On 29 October 2026, ten of the twelve firms whose new targets Benzinga reported set them above the 10 November 2026 close. Growth remains the constraint: until a quarter shows revenue growth recovering, the platform shift shows up in margins more than in the top line.
Bullish and bearish views on Tenable Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB), in brief: platform share of new business jumped. The bear case: fourth-quarter guidance shows slowing growth.
Bull case
- Platform share of new business jumped. Tenable One made up a record 59% of new business in the third quarter, up from 50% in Q2 and 39% a year earlier (Q3 earnings call, 28 October 2026).
- Contracted revenue is large. Remaining performance obligations, revenue under contract not yet recognised, were $1,063.0 million on 30 September 2026, of which $747.2 million is due within a year. Deferred revenue was $863.4 million (Q3 2026 Form 10-Q).
- Margins and cash flow improved. The non-GAAP operating margin was 27.1% in Q3, up from 23.3% a year earlier, and free cash flow was $64.2 million. Full-year non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) guidance rose to $2.16–2.19 from $1.95–2.00 (Q3 release, 28 October 2026).
- Most analysts raised targets above the price. On 29 October 2026 Susquehanna moved to $55, Canaccord Genuity and Barclays to $54, Cantor Fitzgerald to $53 and TD Cowen to $50 (Benzinga). Wells Fargo raised its target to $45 from $38 on 30 October 2026.
- The balance sheet was refinanced. Tenable repaid its term loan in September 2026 with $358.1 million of convertible-note proceeds and signed a $400.0 million revolving credit facility on 13 October 2026, undrawn as of 3 November 2026. Cash was $317.4 million and short-term investments $177.9 million on 30 September 2026 (Q3 10-Q).
Bear case
- Fourth-quarter guidance shows slowing growth. Q4 revenue guidance of $277.0–280.0 million implies 6.9% growth at the midpoint (Investing.com, 28 October 2026), against 9.5% in Q3.
- Existing customers expand only modestly. Dollar-based net expansion, how much more existing customers spend year on year, was 107% in Q3, and management guided 107% for Q4 (Q3 release and call, 28 October 2026).
- Peers show little tolerance for slowing growth. Qualys reported Q3 revenue of $188 million, up 10.7%, and guided Q4 to $191.0–193.0 million against a $190.9 million consensus; its shares still fell 13.5% on 10 November 2026 (StockStory, 9 November 2026; daily closes).
- Some analysts stayed cautious. Wedbush kept an Underperform rating with a $35 target and JPMorgan's target is $41, both set on 29 October 2026 (Benzinga).
- Insiders sold after the report. An insider sale worth about $1,485,900 was disclosed in an SEC filing reported on 5 November 2026 (fiscal.ai).
- The convertible notes carry dilution. Up to 24,976,560 shares are issuable on the $800.0 million 2031 notes, against 104,507,623 shares outstanding on 30 October 2026. Principal settles in cash; any excess can be settled in shares, and the capped calls cover dilution only up to $64.06 per share (Q3 10-Q).
Price setup
The shares closed at $41.96 on 10 November 2026. That is 19.0% under the 52-week high of $51.78 and below the regular-session close of $48.72 on 28 October 2026, the day of the report. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a 0–100 momentum gauge, stands at 52.6, in the neutral middle of its range.
Two levels frame the price. The 14 October 2026 close of $38.12 is where the October rally began. The $44.84 conversion price of the 2031 notes now sits above the shares, and the 10-Q states the share-price conversion condition applies only from 2027.
Crowding has eased. The shares are no longer stretched above recent levels, no Tenable report falls in the next 30 days, and the visible pressure comes from the post-report insider sale and the peer sell-off. FMR LLC, Fidelity's parent, filed a Schedule 13G on 5 November 2026, the form used by passive holders of more than 5% of a class of shares.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Zscaler fiscal first-quarter 2027 report. The next large-cap read on security spending after Qualys's beat-and-raise quarter sold off; Zscaler guided about 19% revenue growth.
- ~4 February 2027 (est.): Tenable Q4 2026 report and first 2027 outlook. Settles whether revenue growth recovers toward the 9.5% Q3 rate or holds near the 6.9% implied by Q4 guidance, and whether Tenable One's 59% share of new business holds.
What would change the view
A daily close above $51.78, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (29 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares trade with vulnerability-management peers. The 3.9% fall on 10 November 2026 came the session after Qualys reported, and Qualys and Rapid7 reports have moved the group through 2026. Zscaler's late-November report is the next sector-wide read.
Membership of the S&P SmallCap 600 since 31 August 2026 ties the shares to small-cap index flows as well as software peers. Federal spending is a named driver: co-CEO Steve Vintz called federal results "strong" on the 28 October 2026 call, so federal budget delays would hit Tenable alongside other public-sector security vendors.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $276.4 million, up 9.5% year over year, against a $271.6 million consensus; non-GAAP EPS was $0.63 against a $0.51 estimate. Tenable Q3 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K); Benzinga · as of
- Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $277.0–280.0 million implies 6.9% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, against 9.5% in Q3. Investing.com earnings call coverage · as of
- Tenable One made up a record 59% of new business in Q3 2026, up from 50% in Q2 2026 and 39% in Q3 2025. Tenable Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Dollar-based net expansion rate was 107% in Q3 2026, up from 106% in Q2 2026; management guided 107% for Q4. Tenable Q3 2026 earnings release and call · as of
- Remaining performance obligations were $1,063.0 million, $747.2 million of it short-term; deferred revenue totalled $863.4 million. Tenable Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Up to 24,976,560 shares are issuable on the $800.0 million 2031 convertible notes; 104,507,623 shares were outstanding on 30 October 2026. Tenable Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- After the report, twelve firms raised targets to between $35 (Wedbush, Underperform) and $55 (Susquehanna, Positive). Benzinga analyst rating reports · as of
- Peer Qualys reported Q3 revenue of $188 million, up 10.7%, guided Q4 to $191.0–193.0 million, and its shares fell 13.5% from $202.46 on 9 November 2026 to $175.11 on 10 November 2026. StockStory; daily closes · as of
Sources
- Tenable Holdings, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Tenable Holdings Inc (TENB) Shares Fall 3.9% -- What GF Score of 75 Tells Investors · gurufocus.com
- Qualys (NASDAQ:QLYS) beats Q3 2026 sales expectations but stock drops · stockstory.org
- Why Qualys (QLYS) stock is nosediving · markets.financialcontent.com ·
- Zscaler
Related · shared themes
GEN
Gen Digital
Gen Digital's raised fiscal 2027 outlook and its step back from a large GoDaddy deal give the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500; the Q3…
OSPN
OneSpan
OneSpan's move from hardware tokens to subscription software is working, but its guidance implies a slower fourth quarter after a 32.1%…
RPD
Rapid7
Rapid7's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500: cost cuts drove a third-quarter profit beat on 4 November 2026, but the company guides…
AKAM
Akamai Technologies
Akamai Technologies' AI cloud pivot has a 2027 outlook behind it, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months…