VRA · Vera Bradley
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $9.45
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
19.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $9.45, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 140.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $9.45, which would put the shares well over the $8.36 intraday 52-week high of 11 November 2026 and show them leading the S&P 500. A fiscal 2027 sales guidance raised above the $255 million–$270 million range would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 1 August 2026, filed 15 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 71.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +1.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 59.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 29.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 13.4
All filed numbers
What Vera Bradley reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 71.6 | +1.1 | 59.8 | 5.8 |
| first filed | 55.7 | +7.8 | 51.8 | −8.3 |
| first filed | 84.9 | −1.7 | 47.8 | 3.2 |
| first filed | 62.3 | −11.7 | 42.1 | −19.6 |
| first filed | 70.9 | −24.6 | 50.1 | −6.5 |
| first filed | 51.7 | −24.0 | 44.1 | −34.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 4.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −10.0 | 4.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 2 August 2025 | +7.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 31.0 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 29.3 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 34.2 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) 0.0% on a year | 1.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 12.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | 69.3 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 132 |
| Market value ($M) | 218 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 13.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.6 days of average trading to cover, +54.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $60K | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $959K | $0 |
The thesis
Vera Bradley's shares look ahead of its results: they rose 134.5% in three months to a $7.81 close on 11 November 2026, on one quarter lifted by tariff refunds. The fiscal third-quarter report, which Stock Analysis lists for 10 December 2026, shows whether direct-channel growth holds once the refunds end. The odds of beating the S&P 500 over the next three months look below even.
The direct-channel turnaround is real. On 15 September 2026 the company reported direct revenue up 8.0% and comparable sales up 9.2%, after first-quarter revenue growth of 7.8%. But $7.7 million of tariff refunds drove most of the second-quarter gross-margin gain, and fiscal 2027 sales guidance stayed at $255 million to $270 million.
The price has moved well past the business news. The shares closed at $7.05 on 6 November and $8.05 on 9 November, then at $8.02 on 10 November and $7.81 on 11 November. The intraday 52-week high of $8.36 came on 11 November. Searches of company news and aggregator news pages found no Vera Bradley release dated after the 15 September results.
The call would be wrong if the December report shows positive direct comparable sales, gross margin near the second quarter's 59.8% without refunds, and higher sales guidance.
Bullish and bearish views on Vera Bradley, Inc.
The bull case on Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA), in brief: direct demand has turned up. The bear case: refunds carried the margin gain.
Bull case
- Direct demand has turned up. The 15 September 2026 release reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $71.6 million, up 1.1% year over year. Direct revenue rose 8.0% to $65.4 million and comparable sales rose 9.2%.
- The quarter beat estimates by a wide margin. Benzinga reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.11 on 15 September 2026, against an expected loss of $0.08. Sales came in at $71.649 million against a $65.955 million estimate.
- Growth has lasted two quarters. First-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $55.7 million, reported 11 June 2026, rose 7.8%, the company's first quarterly growth since fiscal 2022.
- Inventory is leaner and distribution wider. Stock Analysis's summary of the 15 September 2026 results shows inventory down 28%. The brand reached Nordstrom stores and Nordstrom.com on 16 June 2026, and licensing partner Li & Fung expanded its license into apparel on 10 June 2026.
- A director bought as the price rose. SEC Form 4 filings show director Ivan Brockman's trust bought 2,500 shares at $4.00 on 25 September 2026. Brockman then bought 10,000 shares at $5.02 on 6 October.
Bear case
- Refunds carried the margin gain. The 15 September release credited most of the rise in gross margin to 59.8% to $7.7 million of tariff refunds. Those refunds exceeded the quarter's $4.2 million of reported operating income.
- Guidance did not move. The company reaffirmed fiscal 2027 sales guidance of $255 million to $270 million on 15 September 2026. Benzinga put the consensus estimate at $265.376 million, in the upper half of that range.
- The indirect channel is shrinking fast. Indirect revenue fell 39.4% in the second quarter. The company blamed marketplace changes and fewer liquidation sales.
- The price has passed every published target. On 18 September 2026 the Stock Analysis average 12-month target was $4.50, with a high of $5.00. Issuer-paid Small Cap Consumer Research set a $7 target on 9 October 2026. The $7.81 close on 11 November is above all three.
- The latest rise has no company news behind it. The close went from $7.05 on 6 November to $8.05 on 9 November with no company release found after 15 September 2026.
Price setup
Adjusted daily closes put the shares at $7.81 on 11 November 2026, 6.6% below the intraday 52-week high of $8.36 set that day. The highest recent close was $8.05 on 9 November. The 52-week closing low is $1.80, from 11 December 2025.
The shares sit above both long-run averages as of the 11 November close: the 50-day average is $5.21 and the 200-day average is $3.85. The three-month reference close is $3.33 on 13 August 2026.
Lower reference levels are the $7.05 close on 6 November, the session before the latest jump, and the $7.53 close on 4 November.
Crowding evidence is mixed. MarketBeat showed short interest of 2.40% of float and 1.01 days to cover on 16 October 2026, which leaves little room for a rally driven by short covering. That count predates the run above $8, and newer figures were not found. Form 4 filings show no insider sales; the most recent filing, dated 7 October 2026, was Brockman's purchase.
Catalysts ahead
- ~25 November 2026 (est.): Announcement of the fiscal third-quarter 2027 report date. It fixes the date of the first report that tests the second-quarter gains without tariff-refund help; last year's notice came on 26 November 2025.
- ~10 December 2026 (est.): Fiscal third-quarter 2027 results. It shows whether direct-channel growth and gross margin hold without the $7.7 million of tariff refunds that lifted the second quarter, and whether fiscal 2027 sales guidance moves.
What would change the view
A daily close above $9.45, which would put the shares well over the $8.36 intraday 52-week high of 11 November 2026 and show them leading the S&P 500. A fiscal 2027 sales guidance raised above the $255 million–$270 million range would also show it.
What it trades with
The shares trade mainly on company-specific news, in the view of this note. The Wall Street Journal, cited by Stock Analysis, tied the September jump to the swing to a fiscal second-quarter profit. Stock Analysis listed a market value of $200.25 million on 6 November, so small changes in buying can move the price sharply. The 14% rise from the 6 November close to the 9 November close came with no company release found.
The broader links run through discretionary consumer spending and tariff policy, which supplied the $7.7 million of second-quarter refunds. This reading would be wrong if the shares began to fall alongside consumer stocks in sessions with no company news.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue $71.6M, up 1.1% year over year; direct revenue up 8.0% to $65.4M; comparable sales up 9.2% Vera Bradley Q2 FY2027 results release · as of
- Gross margin 59.8%, aided by $7.7M of tariff refunds; reported operating income $4.2M; indirect revenue down 39.4% Vera Bradley Q2 FY2027 results release · as of
- Fiscal 2027 sales guidance reaffirmed at $255M–$270M versus a $265.376M consensus estimate Benzinga guidance headline · as of
- Market value $200.25M; next earnings date listed as 10 December 2026 Stock Analysis VRA overview page · as of
- Director Ivan Brockman bought 10,000 shares at $5.02 on 6 October, after a 2,500-share trust purchase at $4.00 on 25 September SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- Short interest 2.40% of float, 1.01 days to cover; net insider buying $60,200 over three months with no sales MarketBeat VRA page · as of
- Last year's fiscal third-quarter report date was announced on 26 November 2025 for a 11 December 2025 report Vera Bradley press release via Barchart · as of
Sources
- Vera Bradley (VRA) Stock Price & Overview · stockanalysis.com
- Vera Bradley (VRA) Stock News & Updates · stocktitan.net
- Vera Bradley, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Barchart
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