CXT · Crane NXT
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $65.51
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $65.51, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 13.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $65.51, over the 52-week intraday high of $63.57 set on 4 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. A 2027 outlook guiding organic sales growth to mid-single digits or better would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 497
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +11.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 39.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 13.2
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,131
- Price to earnings (×)
- 25.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.4
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 18.6
All filed numbers
What Crane NXT reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 497 | +11.7 | 39.8 | 13.2 |
| first filed | 493 | +22.0 | 42.3 | 14.0 |
| first filed | 388 | +17.4 | 40.2 | 5.7 |
| first filed | 477 | +19.5 | 42.4 | 16.7 |
| first filed | 445 | +10.3 | 43.3 | 18.4 |
| first filed | 404 | +9.1 | 41.7 | 11.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 49.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 128 | 38.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 290 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 251 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 1,383 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,131 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +23.3% on a year | 158 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +28.5% on a year | 716 |
| Receivables ($M) | 375 |
| Inventory ($M) | 217 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,292 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,277 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,408 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 18.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 25.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 16.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 18.9 days of average trading to cover, +6.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.2M | $0 |
The thesis
Crane NXT is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its authentication business grows on its own, but total growth is still bought: organic sales rose 1.1% in the third quarter of 2026 and full-year sales growth guidance was cut to about 14%. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027 with full 2027 guidance, settles whether organic growth recovers.
The third-quarter report on 4 November 2026 showed a split result. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were flat at $1.28 and the adjusted EPS range was narrowed to $4.32–$4.42 from $4.22–$4.42, which lifts the midpoint to $4.37 from $4.32. Sales guidance went the other way, and Detection & Traceability operating margin fell to 14.1% from 28.1% a year earlier (company release, 4 November 2026).
The shares closed at $56.99 on 12 November 2026, the lowest of the six sessions since the report and 10.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $63.57 set on 4 November 2026. The three-month price change is 10.7%. The market has paid for a recovery in organic growth that the third-quarter figures have not yet shown.
Bullish and bearish views on Crane NXT, Co.
The bull case on Crane NXT, Co. (CXT), in brief: adjusted earnings beat and guidance midpoint rose. The bear case: organic growth has stalled.
Bull case
- Adjusted earnings beat and guidance midpoint rose. Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $1.28 against a $1.21 estimate, and sales were $497.1 million against about $495.0 million expected (newswire estimates, 4 November 2026). Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) rose 3.9% to $127.2 million.
- Authentication is the model. Security & Authentication Technologies sales rose 6.4% to $243.5 million, with 7.2% organic growth. Operating profit rose 17.3% to $46.1 million at an 18.9% margin (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Cash generation is strong. Third-quarter adjusted free cash flow conversion was 131.8%. Net leverage was 2.5x at 30 September 2026, and management targets about 2.3x by year-end (company release and call, 4 November 2026 and 5 November 2026).
- 2027 has visible demand. Management said about 65% of the $715.5 million backlog is expected to be delivered in 2027. It also said the Federal Reserve's 2027 print order includes a double-digit volume increase and more $100 bills, which use Crane NXT's micro-optics (call summary, MarketBeat, 7 November 2026).
Bear case
- Organic growth has stalled. Total sales rose 11.7%, but organic growth was 1.1%. Antares Vision, bought in March 2026, added about 11.2 points of sales growth (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Detection & Traceability is shrinking organically. Segment sales rose 17.2% to $253.6 million, but organic sales fell 5.3%. Operating profit fell 41.2% to $35.7 million (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Sales guidance was cut. Full-year sales growth is now about 14%, down from 15% to 17%. The adjusted EBITDA margin outlook of about 24% was unchanged (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Deferrals push revenue into 2027. Big-box retailers delayed Crane Payment Innovations hardware refreshes, and pharmaceutical customers moved Antares Vision installations into the first quarter of 2027. Management expects hardware to stay soft into 2027 (call summary, MarketBeat, 7 November 2026).
- Reported profit fell. GAAP EPS was $0.66 against $0.87 a year earlier, and operating profit fell to $65.7 million from $81.9 million (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Backlog shrank in the quarter. Total backlog was $715.5 million at 30 September 2026, down from $755.5 million at 30 June 2026 (company release, 4 November 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $56.99 on 12 November 2026, after closes of $59.29 on 5 November 2026, $59.65 on 9 November 2026, $58.52 on 10 November 2026 and $57.97 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $63.57, set on 4 November 2026, the day of the report.
The 50-day average of adjusted closes is $52.67 and the 200-day average is $47.97, both as of 12 November 2026. The shares sit above both. The 52-week closing low is $36.13, on 5 June 2026, and the close on 14 August 2026 was $51.66.
An SEC Form 4 filed on 5 October 2026 shows the Chief People Officer exercised 4,259 options on 1 October 2026 and had 2,180 shares withheld for tax at $47.10. It records no open-market sale. The company joined the Russell 2000 at the 27 June 2026 reconstitution.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Management's year-end target for net leverage of about 2.3x. Debt repayment from cash flow decides how much room remains for further acquisitions.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report with full 2027 guidance. Shows whether organic growth recovers from 1.1% as deferred hardware and Antares Vision installations convert.
What would change the view
A daily close above $65.51, over the 52-week intraday high of $63.57 set on 4 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. A 2027 outlook guiding organic sales growth to mid-single digits or better would point the same way.
What it trades with
Crane NXT is a separate company from Crane Company (NYSE: CR); the two report unrelated results. Its earnings depend on currency-note and banknote authentication demand, retail cash-handling hardware cycles and pharmaceutical serialization spending. It is a Russell 2000 member, so small-cap index flows can move the shares independently of its results.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 sales were $497.1 million, up 11.7% from a year earlier; organic growth 1.1%; adjusted EPS $1.28 (flat); GAAP EPS $0.66 versus $0.87. Crane NXT third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Detection & Traceability sales were $253.6 million (up 17.2%), organic sales down 5.3%, operating profit $35.7 million (down 41.2%), margin 14.1% versus 28.1%. Crane NXT third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Security & Authentication sales were $243.5 million (up 6.4%, organic up 7.2%), operating profit $46.1 million (up 17.3%), margin 18.9%. Crane NXT third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Full-year 2026 sales growth guidance was cut to about 14% from 15% to 17%; adjusted EPS range narrowed to $4.32–$4.42 from $4.22–$4.42; adjusted EBITDA margin about 24%, unchanged. Crane NXT third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Backlog was $715.5 million versus $755.5 million at 30 June 2026; adjusted free cash flow conversion 131.8%; net leverage 2.5x on net debt of $1,161.5 million. Crane NXT third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Management expects about 65% of backlog to be delivered in 2027 and hardware softness into 2027, with full 2027 guidance to come on the fourth-quarter call. MarketBeat third-quarter 2026 call highlights · as of
- Adjusted EPS of $1.28 beat the $1.21 estimate; sales of $497.0 million beat the $494.995 million estimate. Newswire correction, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Closed at $56.99 on 12 November 2026; 52-week intraday high $63.57 on 4 November 2026; three-month price change 10.7%. Split and dividend-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources