SMWB · Similarweb

The thesis

Similarweb's shift from web-traffic analytics to licensing its web-traffic data for artificial intelligence (AI) shows up in disclosed contract value but not yet in recurring revenue, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 17 November 2026, before the market opens, settles it. It is the first report under chief executive Michael Akkerman, who took over from founder Or Offer on 2 November 2026.

The company's investor-relations page confirms the 17 November 2026 date, announced on 3 November 2026. The Q3 revenue guidance issued on 12 August 2026 is $80.5–82.5 million, with non-GAAP operating profit guided to $7.5–9.5 million. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $314–318 million. The case turns on whether AI-related revenue rises above its 13% share of Q2 sales and whether net revenue retention moves above 100%.

The shares closed at $8.08 on 11 November 2026. That is 14.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $9.50 set on 1 September 2026, and the 3-month change is −10.3%. The price already reflects a CEO change and a month of insider selling, but not a Q3 result that beats guidance.

Bullish and bearish views on Similarweb Ltd.

The bull case on Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB), in brief: reported growth came with operating profit. The bear case: the founder hands over mid-pivot.

Bull case

• Reported growth came with operating profit. The 12 August 2026 Q2 release showed revenue of $77.2 million, up 9% from a year earlier, and GAAP operating profit of $0.7 million. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $314–318 million from $307–315 million.
• AI licensing has disclosed contract value. The Q2 release cited three multi-year AI contracts with about $60 million of total contract value, and AI-related revenue was 13% of Q2 sales. A 15 June 2026 company release cited multi-year contracts worth about $47 million in total contract value.
• Guidance implies faster growth and profit. Q3 revenue guidance of $80.5–82.5 million sits above Q2's $77.2 million, and non-GAAP operating profit is guided to $7.5–9.5 million. A result at the top of that range would be the first reported evidence that the AI contracts are lifting revenue.
• Sell-side upside remains. Needham's Scott Berg upgraded the shares with an $11 price target on 16 September 2026, per Benzinga. That target is above the $8.08 close of 11 November 2026.
• The new CEO has a data and advertising background. The 24 September 2026 announcement said Akkerman held senior roles at data.ai, Cardlytics, Uber and Pinterest. It also said the company's strategy and outlook were unchanged.

Bear case

• The founder hands over mid-pivot. Akkerman replaced Offer on 2 November 2026, two weeks before the Q3 report. BigGo Finance reported that the shares fell more than 7% on the 24 September 2026 announcement.
• Existing customers are not spending more. Net revenue retention was 100% at 30 June 2026, per the 12 August 2026 results. Existing customers, taken together, spent the same as a year earlier.
• The founder sold shares through September. SEC Form 4 filings show Offer sold 147,000 shares at an average $8.17 on 8 September to 9 September 2026 and 114,300 shares at an average $7.69 on 24 September 2026. All the sales were under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, a pre-arranged selling schedule.
• The NIQ partnership has no disclosed value. The 2 September 2026 collaboration with NIQ promised initial availability in Q4 2026 but gave no contract value.
• The shares have slipped since the Q2 rally. The 3-month change is −10.3% to 11 November 2026, and the close of $8.08 sits below the 50-day average of $8.43.

Price setup

The shares closed at $8.08 on 11 November 2026, after $7.82 on 10 November 2026 and $8.81 on 4 November 2026. The 50-day average is $8.43 and the 200-day average is $5.61, both from adjusted daily closes. The shares are below the first and well above the second.

The 52-week intraday high is $9.50 on 1 September 2026. The 52-week closing low is $2.33 on 10 April 2026. The 3-month reference close of $9.01 on 13 August 2026 is the session after the Q2 report, so the 3-month decline is measured from a post-earnings level.

A Q3 result inside guidance with AI-related revenue at or below 13% of sales would leave the case unproven. A result above the $82.5 million top of guidance would be the first reported sign that the AI contracts are lifting revenue.

Catalysts ahead

• 17 November 2026: Q3 2026 results, before market open, the first under CEO Michael Akkerman. Shows whether revenue lands within $80.5–82.5 million, whether AI-related revenue exceeds 13% of sales, whether net revenue retention rises above 100%, and whether full-year guidance of $314–318 million holds.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of Q4 2026, the quarter by which the NIQ collaboration promised initial availability. A delay or a missing minimum commitment would show the partnership is not yet turning into revenue.

What would change the view

A daily close above $9.94, above the 52-week intraday high of $9.50 set on 1 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Q3 revenue above the $82.5 million top of guidance, or 2026 guidance raised above $318 million, would also show the shares leading.

What it trades with

Similarweb trades as a small-cap software company changing its business model. It tends to move with sentiment toward AI data and application software rather than with semiconductor or infrastructure names. Its largest moves have come from company events: Investing.com reported a 17% surge on the Q2 beat and raised outlook on 12 August 2026, and BigGo Finance reported a drop of more than 7% on the 24 September 2026 CEO announcement.