VAC · Marriott Vacations Worldwide
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $102.82
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $102.82, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are down 1.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $102.82, the 25 September 2026 close and the September low, which would erase the post-report recovery. A cut of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance below the $810 million low end would also show the earnings case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Real Estate
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,367
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +8.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 11.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 164
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,748
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 4.1
All filed numbers
What Marriott Vacations Worldwide reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,367 | +8.2 | 11.2 |
| first filed | 1,320 | +5.9 | 12.2 |
| first filed | 1,257 | +4.8 | 7.0 |
| first filed | 1,323 | −0.3 | −34.1 |
| first filed | 1,263 | −3.2 | 2.6 |
| first filed | 1,246 | +9.3 | 9.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −250 | 82.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +10.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 210 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 46.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 164 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 229 |
| Debt ($M) | 2,977 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,748 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +2.9% on a year | 525 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,119 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,021 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,769 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.9 days of average trading to cover, −0.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $83.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $5.6M | $83.9M |
The thesis
Marriott Vacations Worldwide is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 4 November 2026 showed contract sales up 29% and a raised 2026 profit guide, and the company will present a multi-year financial framework at its investor day on 9 December 2026. The fourth-quarter report in about February 2027 decides whether the guided step-up arrives.
The company lifted the low end of its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to $810–830 million from $805–830 million. It raised its adjusted earnings-per-share guide to $8.65–$9.15 from $8.25–$9.05 (company release, 4 November 2026).
The shares closed at $107.18 on 5 November 2026, the session after the report, and at $117.51 on 11 November 2026. The close on 12 November 2026 was $114.99. That is 12.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $131.34 set on 7 August 2026, and the 3-month change is –4.2%. The market has priced in the operating upgrade and has not yet paid for a durable multi-year path.
Bullish and bearish views on Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
The bull case on Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC), in brief: sales productivity kept climbing. The bear case: tours are shrinking.
Bull case
- Sales productivity kept climbing. Third-quarter contract sales were $565 million, up 29% from a year earlier, and volume per guest (average sales per tour) was $4,822, up 30% (Q3 2026 results release, 4 November 2026). Second-quarter growth was 22%, so the pace quickened.
- Profit and earnings rose sharply. Adjusted EBITDA was $216 million, up 27%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $2.64, up 56% (Q3 2026 release, 4 November 2026). Revenue was $1,367 million, up 8%.
- Guidance moved up. Full-year contract sales guidance rose to $2,120–$2,140 million from $2,080–$2,115 million (Q3 2026 release, 4 November 2026). The EBITDA guide already absorbs a $16 million second-half hit from Hurricane Lowell, which partly closed five Kauai resorts.
- Balance sheet improved. Net corporate leverage fell to 3.6 times from 4.0 times at the end of the second quarter. The board extended the remaining $322 million buyback authorization through 31 December 2027, and no shares were repurchased in the first nine months of 2026 (Q3 2026 release).
- Investor day gives a dated test. The company announced on 12 November 2026 that it will host its 2026 Investor Day in New York City on 9 December 2026. It had postponed an earlier investor day, planned for 17 December, in November 2025, when it announced a chief executive change.
- Two firms stay Overweight. JPMorgan's target is $124 and Barclays' is $139, both above the $114.99 close of 12 November 2026 (company news, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- Tours are shrinking. Third-quarter tours were 107,687, down 2% from a year earlier. North America tours rose 4%; the decline came from Asia-Pacific, which the company cut deliberately to favor profitability (Q3 2026 release, 4 November 2026).
- Credit reserve is rising. The sales reserve reached 14.8% of contract sales, from 13.4% in the second quarter, or $82 million against $57 million a year earlier. The company ties this to about $60 million of extra receivables originated in the quarter. The release gives no quarterly delinquency rate.
- Cash flow guide lost its top end. Adjusted free-cash-flow guidance narrowed to $410–$430 million from $410–$460 million (Q3 2026 release, 4 November 2026). The adjusted EBITDA guide's low end rose by only $5 million.
- Targets were cut after the report. Wells Fargo kept Underweight and set a $97 target on 5 November 2026, below the 12 November 2026 close. JPMorgan also lowered its target, to $124, on the same date.
- The shares sit below their summer high. The 52-week intraday high of $131.34 came on 7 August 2026, before the third-quarter report. The 3-month change to 12 November 2026 is –4.2%.
Price setup
The shares closed at $114.99 on 12 November 2026, after $117.51 on 11 November 2026, $115.68 on 10 November 2026 and $115.13 on 9 November 2026. The close was $110.42 on 6 November 2026 and $107.18 on 5 November 2026.
The last close is above both the 50-day average of $107.24 and the 200-day average of $88.01. The 52-week closing low was $45.49 on 14 November 2025. The 52-week intraday high is $131.34, set on 7 August 2026.
Insiders show no selling. SEC Form 4 filings dated 1 October 2026 for six directors and the chief executive record only share grants or awards dated 30 September 2026. The next dated event is the investor day on 9 December 2026, where management has said it will present a multi-year financial framework.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Investor Day in New York City, starting 9 a.m. Eastern time. Management has said it will present longer-term strategy and a multi-year financial framework, which shows whether the third-quarter sales gains are meant to last.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether the guided fourth-quarter step-up in contract sales and EBITDA arrives and whether credit reserves keep rising.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $102.82, the 25 September 2026 close and the September low, which would erase the post-report recovery. A cut of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance below the $810 million low end would also show the earnings case failing.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Tours keep falling and sales productivity reverses, removing the main driver of contract-sales growth. Confirmed by: a quarterly report showing lower volume per guest alongside tours below the 107,687 of the third quarter of 2026.
- Consumer financing losses offset the vacation-ownership sales recovery. Confirmed by: a sales reserve above 14.8% of contract sales or disclosed delinquencies rising in the next quarterly report.
- Free-cash-flow conversion weakens as more sales are financed, and the narrowed guide is missed. Confirmed by: full-year adjusted free cash flow reported below the $410 million low end of the guide.
- The investor day multi-year framework disappoints against what the shares already price in. Confirmed by: medium-term contract-sales or EBITDA targets presented on 9 December 2026 that sit below the 2026 guided levels, or a close below the 50-day average of $107.24 after the event.
What it trades with
Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a separate issuer from Marriott International and reports on its own calendar. Its sales depend on consumer travel spending and on the credit performance of its financed vacation-ownership loans. It responds to consumer-credit and leisure-travel data more than to hotel-room demand. Hurricane exposure in Hawaii and other resort markets adds event risk that other lodging names share only in part.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 contract sales were $565 million, up 29% from a year earlier; volume per guest was $4,822, up 30%; tours were 107,687, down 2%. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $216 million, up 27%; adjusted diluted EPS was $2.64, up 56%; revenue was $1,367 million, up 8%. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- 2026 guidance: contract sales $2,120–2,140 million, adjusted EBITDA $810–830 million, adjusted EPS $8.65–9.15, adjusted free cash flow $410–430 million. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Sales reserve was 14.8% of contract sales versus 13.4% in the second quarter; net corporate leverage fell to 3.6 times from 4.0 times. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Hurricane Lowell is estimated to cut second-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA by $16 million, already included in guidance. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- JPMorgan kept Overweight and lowered its target to $124; Barclays kept Overweight with a $139 target; Wells Fargo kept Underweight with a $97 target. Company news · as of
- The company announced it will host its 2026 Investor Day in New York City on 9 December 2026, starting at 9 a.m. Eastern time. Company news release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Form 4 filings from 1 October 2026 for six directors and the chief executive show only share grants or awards dated 30 September 2026, no open-market sales. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation to Host 2026 Investor Day in New York City · ir.marriottvacationsworldwide.com
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide to host Dec. 9 investor day · stocktitan.net
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