WK · Workiva
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $85.50
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $85.50, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 2.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $85.50, the close before the Q3 report on 5 November 2026, which would erase the post-report drop and show the shares leading. A fourth-quarter revenue result above the $278 million top of the guide, with net retention above 110%, would also show the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 263
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +17.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 81.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 223
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 120
- Price to earnings (×)
- 59.4
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.6
All filed numbers
What Workiva reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 263 | +17.3 | 81.1 | 6.8 |
| first filed | 255 | +18.6 | 80.4 | 4.6 |
| first filed | 247 | +19.9 | 80.4 | 6.2 |
| first filed | 239 | +19.5 | 80.7 | 3.3 |
| first filed | 224 | +20.8 | 79.3 | −1.5 |
| first filed | 215 | +21.2 | 77.0 | −10.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 22.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 63.4 | 19.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −5.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 225 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 223 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 817 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 698 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 120 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +11.6% on a year | 590 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +16.5% on a year | 1,515 |
| Receivables ($M) | 158 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −45.9 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,763 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,643 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 69.1 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 59.4 |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.0 days of average trading to cover, +14.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $499K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $944K |
The thesis
Workiva's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. The third-quarter (Q3) margin result was strong, but net revenue retention, billings growth and the fourth-quarter (Q4) revenue guide all weakened, and the market has repriced them. The Q4 report and formal 2027 outlook, which management said will come on its February 2027 call, decide whether growth recovers enough to support the 2030 targets.
Workiva reported Q3 on 5 November 2026 after the close. Revenue of $263 million rose 17% and beat the $260–$262 million guidance. Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating margin of 18.3% beat the 17.0%–17.5% guidance (company 8-K). Net revenue retention, which tracks spending by existing customers, was 110% against 111% in Q2. Calculated billings grew 10% against 15.2% in Q2.
The shares closed at $72.76 on 6 November 2026, the first regular session after the report, and at $67.16 on 10 November 2026. They closed at $69.77 on 11 November 2026. The market has priced in a slower 2027 start: the Q4 guide and the retention slip pulled the shares below their 50-day average, even with margins ahead of plan.
Bullish and bearish views on Workiva Inc.
The bull case on Workiva Inc. (WK), in brief: margins and cash beat guidance. The bear case: existing customers expand more slowly.
Bull case
- Margins and cash beat guidance. Q3 adjusted operating margin was 18.3%, up from 12.7% a year earlier, and Q3 free cash flow was $69 million against $46 million (8-K, 5 November 2026). 2026 free cash flow margin is guided to about 21%.
- Contracted revenue outgrew billings. Current remaining performance obligations, the contracted revenue due within 12 months, reached $818 million, up 17% (Q3 call, 5 November 2026). Finance chief Larson called it the better indicator of future subscription revenue.
- Large customers keep growing. Customers above $300,000 in annual contract value rose 31% to 708, and those above $500,000 rose 20% to 283 at 30 September 2026 (8-K). Gross retention was 97%, above the company's 96% target.
- Paid AI tiers show early uplift. Chief executive Iskow said SEC Reporting has seen "north of 20% uplift" from the Good/Better/Best pricing tiers, and added it is "still early days" (Q3 call, 5 November 2026).
- Some analysts see room above the price. Raymond James raised its target to $90 from $80 (Rallies, 6 November 2026). Baird cut its target to $95 from $105 the same day, still above the 11 November 2026 close.
- Cash covers the 2028 convertible notes. Cash and marketable securities were $817 million at 30 September 2026, against $702 million of convertible notes due in 2028 (8-K).
Bear case
- Existing customers expand more slowly. Net revenue retention fell to 110% from 111% in Q2, with what management called a modest currency headwind (Q3 call, 5 November 2026).
- Billings growth dropped sharply. Larson put Q3 calculated billings growth at 10%, or closer to 15% excluding currency and an eight-figure upfront payment in Q3 2025. Billings were 15.2% in Q2.
- Q4 guidance sits below estimates. Workiva guided Q4 revenue to $275–$278 million against a $278.04 million estimate (Benzinga, 5 November 2026). Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.72 compared with a FactSet estimate of $0.80 (MarketScreener, 5 November 2026).
- Sustainability demand has moderated. Iskow and Larson said sustainability demand has cooled from strong late-2024 bookings and that currency tailwinds have faded (Q3 call, 5 November 2026). Larson said the slowdown is in the 2026 outlook; the 2027 view comes in February.
- AI revenue is still unquantified. Management gave no count of contracts upgraded to the premium tiers on the 5 November 2026 call. The 2030 targets of about 26% adjusted margin and $1.8–$2.0 billion of revenue, set on 15 September 2026, rest partly on that uptake.
- Share supply remains in view. General Counsel Brandon Ziegler sold 6,571 shares in the open market at $75.97 on 20 August 2026 (SEC Form 4). A $238.88 million registration for an employee stock offering of Class A shares was filed with the Q2 results.
Price setup
The shares closed at $69.77 on 11 November 2026, 26.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $95.00 set on 12 November 2025. The 3-month change is −5.4%, against a close of $73.75 on 13 August 2026. The close sits under the 50-day average of $75.28 and above the 200-day average of $62.63. The 52-week closing low is $44.31 on 13 May 2026.
The report-day fall took the shares from $85.28 on 4 November 2026 to $72.76 on 6 November 2026. MarketBeat reported an intraday low of $66.43 that session. The closes since: $69.78 on 9 November 2026, $67.16 on 10 November 2026 and $69.77 on 11 November 2026.
A close back above the 50-day average would show buyers absorbing the report. The 200-day average is the nearest lower marker from adjusted daily closes; the 10 November 2026 close of $67.16 held above it.
The Earnings Whispers commentary republished by Finviz called the EPS miss "largely a tax method story but slowing growth is the real issue". The 22% fixed non-GAAP tax rate moved 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.80–$2.83 from $3.38–$3.39, while GAAP EPS guidance rose to $1.31–$1.34 from $1.21–$1.22 (Benzinga, 5 November 2026).
Catalysts ahead
- February 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 results and the formal 2027 outlook; day not announced. Settles whether net retention holds at 110% or better, whether contracted revenue keeps growing about 17%, and whether the outlook supports the 2030 targets.
What would change the view
A daily close above $85.50, the close before the Q3 report on 5 November 2026, which would erase the post-report drop and show the shares leading. A fourth-quarter revenue result above the $278 million top of the guide, with net retention above 110%, would also show the call wrong.
What it trades with
Workiva has been in the S&P SmallCap 600 since 6 October 2026, so small-cap index flows touch the shares. Its business driver is company-specific: statutory reporting and sustainability demand, which management tied to the Q4 caution on 5 November 2026. The shares also sit inside the wider debate over whether AI displaces enterprise software. A gross retention reading below the 96% target would show that debate reaching Workiva's own numbers.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $263M, up 17%; non-GAAP operating margin was 18.3% against 12.7% a year earlier; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.72 and GAAP EPS was $0.35. Workiva Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Net revenue retention was 110% and gross retention 97% at 30 September 2026; customers numbered 6,840. Workiva Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Calculated billings grew 10%, or closer to 15% excluding currency and an eight-figure upfront payment in Q3 2025; current remaining performance obligations were $818M, up 17%. Workiva Q3 2026 earnings call, CFO Larson · as of
- Q4 2026 guidance is revenue of $275M-$278M, non-GAAP operating margin of 19.0%-19.5% and non-GAAP EPS of $0.78-$0.80; the revenue estimate was $278.04M. Workiva Q3 2026 8-K; Benzinga headline · as of
- 2026 guidance is revenue of $1.041B-$1.044B, non-GAAP operating margin of 18.2%-18.3%, non-GAAP EPS of $2.80-$2.83 (from $3.38-$3.39) and free cash flow margin of about 21%. Workiva Q3 2026 8-K; Benzinga headline · as of
- Management said sustainability demand has moderated from strong late-2024 bookings, and that the slowdown is reflected in the 2026 outlook. Workiva Q3 2026 earnings call · as of
- Baird cut its Workiva price target to $95 from $105; Raymond James raised its target to $90 from $80. Rallies analyst-action pages · as of
- Workiva closed at $72.76 on the first session after the Q3 report, against $85.28 two sessions earlier on 4 November 2026. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- WORKIVA INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Workiva (WK) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Workiva (NYSE:WK) surprises with Q3 2026 sales but quarterly revenue guidance slightly misses expectations · finance.yahoo.com ·
- Earnings Flash (WK) Workiva Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.72 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.80 · marketscreener.com ·
- Workiva Inc.: Baird cuts target price to $95 from $105 · rallies.ai ·
- Rallies
- Workiva (NYSE:WK) Shares Break Below 50-Day Moving Average Following Weak Earnings · marketbeat.com ·
- Finviz