WNC · Wabash National
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $13.82
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $13.82, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 8.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $13.82, which is over the 50-day average and would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A fourth-quarter adjusted loss narrower than the $0.55 low end of the guided loss would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 476
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +24.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 3.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −4.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −137
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −481
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.6
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −29.1
All filed numbers
What Wabash National reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 476 | +24.8 | 3.1 | −4.2 |
| first filed | 417 | −9.1 | 3.7 | −6.1 |
| first filed | 303 | −20.4 | −3.5 | −17.3 |
| first filed | 322 | −22.9 | −1.9 | −18.6 |
| first filed | 382 | −17.8 | 4.1 | 15.1 |
| first filed | 459 | −16.7 | 9.0 | −1.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −26.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −139 | −20.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −123 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 13.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −137 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 69.3 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 550 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −481 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 199 |
| Inventory ($M) | 195 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 271 |
| Market value ($M) | 471 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 951 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −29.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 12.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.9 days of average trading to cover, +17.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $123K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $123K |
The thesis
Wabash National's trailer orders have recovered faster than its profits, and the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Backlog reached $1,198 million at 30 September 2026, yet the company guides to a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of $0.55–$0.75 per share. The fourth-quarter report, estimated for early February 2027, settles whether management's goal of quarterly profit by the second quarter of 2027 holds.
The 29 October 2026 report split the case in two. Revenue of $476.4 million beat the top of the $440–460 million guide, and backlog rose about 25% from the second quarter (Wabash Form 8-K, 29 October 2026). The adjusted loss of $0.63 per share missed the guided $0.40–$0.50 range, so higher shipments did not narrow losses.
The shares closed at $12.03 on 11 November 2026, up from $10.91 on 6 November 2026. The rebound leaves them below their 50-day average and still well under the October high, so the market is paying for the order book while carrying the guided fourth-quarter loss.
Bullish and bearish views on Wabash National Corp.
The bull case on Wabash National Corp. (WNC), in brief: backlog is growing quickly. The bear case: Q4 guidance is a deeper loss than expected.
Bull case
- Backlog is growing quickly. Wabash reported total backlog of $1,198 million at 30 September 2026, up $242 million from the second quarter (Form 8-K, 29 October 2026). Management put the total at about $1.3 billion by mid-October on the earnings call.
- 2027 dry van orders are accelerating. Management said dry van backlog for 2027 delivery went from more than 12,000 units shortly before quarter-end to nearly 20,000 by mid-October (Q3 call summary, 30 October 2026). That order book is the main evidence of demand.
- New orders carry better margins. Management said the 2027 dry van backlog carries an average margin more than 600 basis points (6 percentage points) above the second quarter of 2026 (Q3 call summary, 30 October 2026). It targets quarterly profit by Q2 2027, consistent with a $150–170 million annualized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) run rate.
- Chinese trailers now face duties. Commerce issued final affirmative determinations on 26 August 2026 (trade.gov), and the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) found injury on 25 September 2026. Wabash is a petitioner through the American Trailer Manufacturers Coalition.
- Analysts remain constructive after the report. DA Davidson rated the shares Buy with an $18 target on 30 October 2026, down from $20 on 22 September 2026 (Daily Political).
Bear case
- Q4 guidance is a deeper loss than expected. Wabash guided to an adjusted loss of $0.55–$0.75 per share on revenue of $420–450 million, against a consensus loss of $0.18 (company news, 29 October 2026). The adjusted operating margin guide is negative 8% to negative 5%.
- The profit turn moved out. Management no longer expects positive EBITDA in late 2026, because it pulled forward hiring and production-readiness spending planned for early 2027 (Q3 call summary, 30 October 2026). Ramp inefficiencies are expected to continue into the first half of 2027.
- More shipments have not lifted margins. Q3 trailer shipments rose to 9,563 from 8,292 in Q2, yet gross margin slipped to 3.1% from 3.7% (Wabash releases, 29 July 2026 and 29 October 2026). Adjusted EBITDA was a $10.4 million loss, against a $5.5 million loss a year earlier.
- Truck bodies remain a drag. Shipments fell to 1,685 from 3,067 a year earlier (Form 8-K, 29 October 2026). Management expects the truck body recovery to lag dry vans by about six to nine months.
- Cash is going out and debt is up. Q3 free cash flow was negative $40.8 million, which management attributed to a planned working-capital ramp. Long-term debt was $540.3 million at 30 September 2026, against $442.9 million at year-end 2025, with cash of $69.3 million (Form 8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Insiders have sold and had shares withheld. The Chief Administrative Officer sold 10,000 shares on the open market at $12.25 on 14 September 2026 (SEC Form 4). Two senior officers had shares withheld for tax at $13.26 on 29 October 2026 (SEC Form 4).
Price setup
The shares closed at $12.03 on 11 November 2026. That is 17.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $14.55 set on 5 October 2026, and above the 52-week closing low of $6.77 on 19 May 2026. The 3-month change is negative 3.1%.
The 50-day average is $12.65 and the 200-day average is $10.80, both as of 11 November 2026. The last close sits between them. Closes were $11.58 on 4 November 2026, $10.91 on 6 November 2026, $11.55 on 9 November 2026 and $11.57 on 10 November 2026, so the rebound took the shares back to the 50-day average zone without crossing it.
Form 4 filings show the shares at $13.26 on 29 October 2026, the day of the report. They fell after it. Daily Political reported them down $1.25 to $12.02 in trading on 30 October 2026. The rebound since 6 November 2026 recovers part of that drop.
Analyst coverage is thin. DA Davidson's $18 target is dated after the report, so it is current. Aggregator consensus targets differ by site and are not cited.
Catalysts ahead
- ~17 December 2026 (est.): Commerce final determinations on van-type trailers from Mexico (expected on or around this date). Decides whether trade protection for domestic trailer builders extends beyond Chinese imports.
- ~3 February 2027 (est.): Wabash Q4 2026 results and first-quarter guidance. Tests the $0.55-$0.75 adjusted loss guide and the $1,198 million backlog, and shows whether quarterly profit by Q2 2027 remains on track.
What would change the view
A daily close above $13.82, which is over the 50-day average and would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A fourth-quarter adjusted loss narrower than the $0.55 low end of the guided loss would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Dry van orders come from freight fleets, so Wabash's order book tracks those customers' equipment spending. The duty case ties it to fellow petitioners Great Dane and Stoughton Trailers, so rulings on Mexico and Canada would affect the domestic trailer group together. Commerce's final Mexico determination is expected on or around 17 December 2026, and its countervailing-duty final is aligned with the antidumping final at the request of Stoughton and Wabash.
The largest recent moves came from company news: the convertible note offering in July and the post-report decline on 30 October 2026. Long-term debt of $540.3 million at 30 September 2026 and negative free cash flow add exposure to credit conditions.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 net sales were $476.4 million, up 24.8% from $381.6 million a year earlier, with gross margin of 3.1%. Wabash Form 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS was a loss of $0.63 and GAAP diluted EPS a loss of $0.51; Wabash had guided the adjusted loss to $0.40-$0.50. Wabash Form 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Total backlog was $1,198 million at 30 September 2026, up $242 million or about 25% from Q2 2026. Wabash Form 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Wabash guided Q4 2026 revenue to $420-450 million and adjusted EPS to a loss of $0.55-$0.75, against a $0.18 consensus loss. Wabash Form 8-K; company news headline · as of
- Management said 2027 dry van backlog reached nearly 20,000 units by mid-October, with an average margin more than 600 basis points above Q2 2026. Q3 2026 earnings call summary, Tradingkey via Mitrade · as of
- Q3 free cash flow was negative $40.8 million; long-term debt was $540.3 million and cash $69.3 million at 30 September 2026. Wabash Form 8-K, Q3 2026 results release · as of
- DA Davidson set an $18 price target with a Buy rating, compared with $20 on 22 September 2026. Daily Political, 30 October 2026 · as of
- Chief Administrative Officer Mary Kristin Glazner sold 10,000 shares on the open market at $12.25 on 14 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 15 September 2026 · as of
Sources
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