XRAY · Dentsply Sirona
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $11.22
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $11.22, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 18.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $11.22, at the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook above the $1.30 top of the current guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 836
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −7.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 53.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 4.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 103
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,005
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 5.7
All filed numbers
What Dentsply Sirona reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 836 | −7.5 | 53.0 | 4.4 |
| first filed | 898 | −4.1 | 54.9 | 9.1 |
| first filed | 880 | +0.1 | 48.5 | −4.0 |
| first filed | 961 | +6.2 | 46.1 | −14.5 |
| first filed | 904 | −4.9 | 48.8 | −24.1 |
| first filed | 936 | −4.9 | 52.4 | −13.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 26.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −121 | −2.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 272 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 169 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 103 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 195 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 2,200 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,005 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −18.9% on a year | 99.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 605 |
| Inventory ($M) | 707 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,355 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,815 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,820 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.2 days of average trading to cover, +16.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.6M | $916K |
The thesis
Dentsply Sirona's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 5 November 2026 missed estimates on sales and earnings and cut fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to $1.20–$1.30 from $1.40–$1.50. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 26 February 2027, settles whether the lower guide holds.
The market has already priced a weak quarter. The shares closed at $9.24 on 12 November 2026, down 20.3% over three months and 37.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $14.76 set on 27 February 2026. The close of 12 November 2026 was down from $9.76 the session before. Analysts cut targets after the report: Barrington Research lowered its target to $11 from $13 on 9 November 2026 and kept Outperform, and JPMorgan's target was listed at $10.00 on 8 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.
The bull case on DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (XRAY), in brief: expectations were already low. The bear case: the quarter missed on sales and earnings.
Bull case
- Expectations were already low. The shares closed at $9.46 on 6 November 2026, the session after the report, and at $9.76 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $8.42, on 19 October 2026.
- Wellspect keeps growing. Wellspect Healthcare sales rose 10.1% as reported to a record $92 million in the third quarter, per the company's 8-K of 5 November 2026. The continence-care unit is the one segment growing.
- Management cites execution gains. The 5 November 2026 release pointed to progress in implants and endodontics and an expanded U.S. dealer network under the Return-to-Growth Action Plan. Management said on 15 September 2026 that new dealers were being trained for a fourth-quarter contribution.
- Analyst targets sit above the price. BofA Securities' target was listed at $14 on 7 November 2026, JPMorgan's at $10.00 on 8 November 2026 and Barrington's at $11 on 9 November 2026, all above the $9.24 close of 12 November 2026, per Benzinga headlines.
Bear case
- The quarter missed on sales and earnings. Adjusted EPS was $0.29 against a $0.31 consensus estimate, per Yahoo Finance's 5 November 2026 report. Net sales were $836 million, down 7.6% reported and 7.0% in constant currency, per the company's 8-K.
- The dental core is shrinking. Orthodontic and Implant Solutions sales fell 16.6% and Connected Technology Solutions fell 11.0% in the third quarter, per the 8-K. Essential Dental Solutions fell 4.0%.
- Earnings quality is weak. Gross profit and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) included a $39 million benefit from refining an inventory estimate. The company says it does not expect equivalent impacts in the future. Adjusted EBITDA was $146 million, a 17.3% margin, down 13.3% from a year earlier. GAAP diluted EPS was a loss of $0.01.
- Cash generation stalled while debt stays high. Third-quarter free cash flow was $0 against $40 million a year earlier, from $32 million of operating cash flow less $32 million of capital spending. Cash was $195 million at 30 September 2026 against $326 million at 31 December 2025, with $215 million of current debt and $1,985 million of long-term debt.
- The guide came down. Fiscal 2026 net sales guidance is about $3.5 billion, from $3.5–$3.6 billion, and the EPS range excludes a $0.17 one-time tariff refund. The company gave no fourth-quarter outlook.
Price setup
The shares closed at $9.24 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of closes at $9.48 and the 200-day average at $11.2, both as of that date. The closes of $9.54 on 9 November 2026, $9.70 on 10 November 2026 and $9.76 on 11 November 2026 had recovered part of the post-report drop from $10.09 on 5 November 2026.
The 52-week closing low of $8.42 on 19 October 2026 is the nearest prior floor. The 200-day average sits above the price and has not been reached since the shares fell through it. SEC filings since the report list only the quarterly 10-Q filed on 5 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results. Tests the $1.20–$1.30 adjusted EPS guidance, the fiscal 2026 net sales guide of about $3.5 billion and the planned fourth-quarter dealer contribution.
What would change the view
A daily close above $11.22, at the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook above the $1.30 top of the current guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Dentsply Sirona trades on dental demand: dealer inventories, implant volumes and patient spending on elective dental work. It follows that cycle more than the wider medical device group. Wellspect follows a separate continence-care cycle. Dental distributors and aligner makers are the closest read-across; no peer figures are cited here.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $836 million, down 7.6% reported and 7.0% in constant currency; adjusted EPS was $0.29 against a $0.31 consensus estimate. Dentsply Sirona 8-K (Q3 2026 results); Yahoo Finance 5 November 2026 · as of
- Fiscal 2026 net sales guidance is about $3.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance is $1.20–$1.30, excluding a $0.17 one-time tariff refund benefit; no fourth-quarter outlook was given. Dentsply Sirona 8-K (Q3 2026 results) · as of
- Orthodontic and Implant Solutions sales fell 16.6% and Connected Technology Solutions fell 11.0%; Wellspect Healthcare rose 10.1% to a record $92 million. Dentsply Sirona 8-K (Q3 2026 results) · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was $0 against $40 million a year earlier; cash was $195 million versus $326 million at 31 December 2025; long-term debt was $1,985 million. Dentsply Sirona 8-K (Q3 2026 results) · as of
- Gross profit and adjusted EBITDA included a $39 million benefit from an inventory estimate refinement; GAAP diluted EPS was a loss of $0.01; adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.3%. Dentsply Sirona 8-K (Q3 2026 results) · as of
- Barrington Research adjusted its price target to $11 from $13 and maintained Outperform. Benzinga headline · as of
- JPMorgan adjusted its Dentsply Sirona price target to $10.00. Benzinga headline · as of
- BofA Securities adjusted its Dentsply Sirona price target to $14. Benzinga headline · as of
Sources
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