MYGN · Myriad Genetics

The thesis

Myriad Genetics shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 than lag it over the next three months. The third-quarter report answered the main question in the case: average revenue per test rose 1% year over year, and the 2026 revenue guide went up. What settles the call now is the cost of the network intrusion detected on 2 November 2026. The next sign is any update on lost testing days or patient-record access, and the guide holding at $780–790 million.

Myriad reported third-quarter revenue of $202.7 million on 4 November 2026. That was down 1% from $205.7 million a year earlier but above the $191.3 million analyst estimate cited by Benzinga. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was −$5.3 million, against −$16.9 million in the second quarter. Revenue per test rose 7% from the second quarter, after a 9% year-over-year fall in that quarter.

The shares do not yet reflect the report. They closed at $6.29 on 5 November 2026, the session after the release, and then fell to $5.72 by 11 November 2026 as the intrusion became public. Both price targets set after the report sit above that close: TD Cowen's at $6.75 and Leerink Partners' at $8.

Bullish and bearish views on Myriad Genetics, Inc.

The bull case on Myriad Genetics, Inc. (MYGN), in brief: revenue per test turned up. The bear case: the intrusion hit testing operations.

Bull case

• Revenue per test turned up. Average revenue per test rose 1% year over year in the third quarter and 7% from the second quarter (company release, 4 November 2026). Gains in Cancer Care Continuum and Mental Health offset the prenatal decline.
• The kept businesses grew volume. Cancer Care Continuum revenue was $123.9 million, up 1%, on 98,000 tests, up 4%. Mental Health (GeneSight) revenue was $39.5 million, up 2%, on 141,000 tests, up 3% (4 November 2026 release).
• Guidance went up, not down. Myriad raised its FY2026 revenue guide from $770–790 million to $780–790 million on 4 November 2026. That includes $620–630 million from Cancer Care Continuum and Mental Health and about $160 million from Prenatal Health.
• Losses narrowed sharply. Adjusted EBITDA improved to −$5.3 million in the third quarter from −$16.9 million in the second (4 November 2026 release). Adjusted EPS of −$0.11 beat the −$0.20 estimate, per Benzinga.
• Analysts moved targets above the price. TD Cowen kept a Hold rating and raised its target to $6.75 on 5 November 2026. Leerink Partners kept Market Perform and raised its target from $5 to $8 the same day (Benzinga).
• Prenatal sale brings in $210 million. Labcorp agreed on 20 October 2026 to buy the prenatal business for $210 million in cash plus inventory value. Prenatal revenue fell 12% in the third quarter on 11% lower volume, so the sale removes the shrinking line.

Bear case

• The intrusion hit testing operations. Myriad detected unauthorized access to its IT network on 2 November 2026 and temporarily suspended testing and order-management systems, per its 8-K reported on 5 November 2026. Most systems had returned to normal by that date, and whether patient records were accessed was still under investigation (TipRanks, 5 November 2026).
• The guide raise predates the disclosure. Myriad raised revenue guidance on 4 November 2026, two days after detecting the access. The fourth-quarter testing days lost to the suspension are not yet quantified.
• Cash keeps falling before the sale closes. Cash was $107.1 million on 30 September 2026, down from $115.2 million on 30 June 2026. The $210 million from Labcorp arrives only at closing, guided to early 2027 and subject to regulatory approval.
• Gross margin and GAAP losses worsened. Gross margin was 67.9%, down 200 basis points year over year, and the GAAP net loss widened to $43.9 million from $27.4 million (4 November 2026 release). The 4 November 2026 guidance gives revenue and adjusted gross margin ranges of 66–67% but no adjusted EBITDA range.
• Hereditary cancer revenue slipped. Hereditary cancer revenue fell 1% year over year in the third quarter (4 November 2026 release), so growth in the kept business still leans on tumor profiling and GeneSight.

Price setup

The shares closed at $5.72 on 11 November 2026. That is above the 50-day moving average of $4.65 and the 200-day moving average of $4.61, both as of that close. The 3-month change is 80.4%, from a $3.17 close on 13 August 2026.

The report itself lifted the shares from a $6.02 close on 4 November 2026 to $6.29 on 5 November 2026. The decline to $5.67 on 10 November 2026 followed the intrusion disclosure, so the price already reflects some of the incident's cost.

The 52-week closing low is $2.86, set on 31 July 2026, the session after the company suspended adjusted EBITDA guidance. The 52-week intraday high is $8.09, set on 25 November 2025; the last close is 29.3% below it. Leerink's $8 target sits at about that level.

Myriad filed its 10-Q on 6 November 2026 and an 8-K on 9 November 2026 covering a director or officer appointment, departure or compensation item.

Catalysts ahead

• ~31 January 2027 (est.): Closing of the Labcorp prenatal sale (company guides to early 2027). The $210M cash arrives only at closing; with cash at $107.1M on 30 September 2026 and adjusted EBITDA still negative, a delayed closing extends the period without the new cash.
• ~24 February 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 results. Shows how much testing revenue the 2 November 2026 network intrusion cost and whether revenue lands inside the $780–790M guide.
• Undated: Update on the Cybersecurity investigation into possible patient-record access. Confirmation that patient records were accessed would bring notification costs and litigation risk; a clean finding removes the main new overhang on the shares.
• Undated: Medicare MolDX coverage decision for Precise MRD in breast cancer. Reimbursement would turn the MRD test into billable revenue; without it, MRD remains a cost.

What would change the view

A daily close below $4.65, under the 50-day moving average as of 11 November 2026, which would give back most of the gain since the Labcorp deal; or a cut to the $780–790 million FY2026 revenue guide.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• The network intrusion costs more fourth-quarter testing revenue than the raised guide allows, or exposes patient data. Confirmed by: a company disclosure that patient records were accessed, a filed data-breach class action, or a cut to the $780–790M FY2026 revenue guide.
• Payer friction returns and revenue per test falls again in the business Myriad is keeping. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter average revenue per test down year over year, or hereditary cancer revenue declining faster than the 1% drop of the third quarter.
• The Labcorp sale is delayed or blocked in regulatory review. Confirmed by: a second request from antitrust regulators, a pushed-out closing date beyond early 2027, or termination of the agreement.
• Cash runs down before the sale proceeds arrive. Confirmed by: year-end cash below the $107.1M of 30 September 2026 alongside another negative adjusted EBITDA quarter, or new borrowing or equity issuance.
• Management turnover during the divestiture disrupts execution. Confirmed by: the 9 November 2026 8-K or a later filing showing the departure of the chief executive or chief financial officer.
• MRD stays subscale against entrenched, reimbursed competitors. Confirmed by: natera reports accelerating MRD volumes while Myriad discloses no MRD revenue or new MolDX coverage.

What it trades with

Myriad trades mainly on its own news. The 20 October 2026 Labcorp deal produced an intraday gain of as much as 36.85%, per Benzinga, and the 5 November 2026 intrusion disclosure preceded four straight lower closes. Natera is the closest diagnostics comparison for minimal residual disease (MRD) and hereditary testing. Labcorp, the buyer, shares the regulatory timing of the prenatal sale. Payer behaviour, including denial rates and prior-authorization rules, affects the whole genetic-testing group at once. Myriad's MRD test still has no Medicare coverage in breast cancer: the company said on 4 November 2026 it is still working with the MolDX program on a local coverage determination.