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Covered

KC · Kingsoft Cloud Holdings

Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months

Wrong if: a daily close above $9.88

Note written ·

Price against the kill line

23.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.

How to read this

This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.

The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.

The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides

KCKingsoft Cloud Holdings
$9.88
$7.55
23.6%well clear

Three months against the kill line

KC daily closes from 17 August 2026 to 13 November 2026, last $7.55, against its kill line: a daily close above $9.88. 17 August 2026: $11.3918 August 2026: $10.8419 August 2026: $12.3720 August 2026: $11.4221 August 2026: $11.1424 August 2026: $10.4225 August 2026: $10.5126 August 2026: $10.2327 August 2026: $10.5928 August 2026: $10.6431 August 2026: $10.241 September 2026: $10.242 September 2026: $10.253 September 2026: $10.484 September 2026: $10.948 September 2026: $10.429 September 2026: $10.2110 September 2026: $9.9011 September 2026: $9.9614 September 2026: $9.8315 September 2026: $9.5216 September 2026: $9.4217 September 2026: $9.3818 September 2026: $9.9221 September 2026: $10.2722 September 2026: $10.1223 September 2026: $9.6824 September 2026: $9.7425 September 2026: $9.6628 September 2026: $9.1529 September 2026: $9.0930 September 2026: $9.121 October 2026: $9.132 October 2026: $9.005 October 2026: $9.276 October 2026: $9.357 October 2026: $9.238 October 2026: $8.749 October 2026: $9.2612 October 2026: $9.2513 October 2026: $9.3214 October 2026: $8.7615 October 2026: $8.8416 October 2026: $8.4719 October 2026: $8.5320 October 2026: $8.7921 October 2026: $8.5722 October 2026: $8.1123 October 2026: $8.4926 October 2026: $8.6827 October 2026: $8.5428 October 2026: $8.6329 October 2026: $8.1530 October 2026: $7.772 November 2026: $7.943 November 2026: $7.614 November 2026: $8.105 November 2026: $8.176 November 2026: $8.529 November 2026: $8.4410 November 2026: $8.4011 November 2026: $8.5212 November 2026: $7.8613 November 2026: $7.55

Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $9.88, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 33.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.

Kill line

A daily close above $9.88, which would put the shares above the 50-day average and show them leading again. A third-quarter GAAP operating profit above RMB23.0 million with AI-cloud gross billings above RMB1,327 million would also show that.

Research onlyNot in the portfolio.

Catalyst

The portfolio's record →

Key figures from the filings · Technology

Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).

All filed numbers

What Kingsoft Cloud Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .

Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 6.7 days of average trading to cover, −2.0% since the previous report.

Insiders' open-market trades SEC Form 4, by trade date, to
Window Bought Sold
90 daysfrom $0 $0
12 monthsfrom $0 $0and 2 trades without a stated price

The thesis

Kingsoft Cloud's artificial-intelligence (AI) cloud billings and first-half revenue growth have not lifted the shares, and they are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months until the third-quarter report on 24 November 2026 shows the second-quarter profit repeating. The shares closed at $8.52 on 11 November 2026, down 25.3% over three months and 54.0% below the 52-week high of $18.52 (intraday, 13 May 2026).

The company reported second-quarter AI-cloud gross billings of RMB1,327 million on 19 August 2026, up 82% year over year and 56% of public-cloud revenue, plus a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) operating profit of RMB23.0 million. Gross billings measure orders booked, not recognized revenue. The market price already reflects doubt that this improvement lasts: the shares closed at $7.61 on 3 November 2026, their lowest close of the past 52 weeks, and sit below both the 50-day average of $9.11 and the 200-day average of $11.87. The company confirmed on 29 October 2026 that it will report on 24 November 2026 before the US market opens.

Bullish and bearish views on Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited

The bull case on Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited (KC), in brief: AI billings have real scale. The bear case: the decline has not reversed.

Bull case

  • AI billings have real scale. The 19 August 2026 release put AI-cloud gross billings at RMB1,327 million, up 82% year over year. A third-quarter figure at or above that level would show demand held.
  • Operating profit appeared and margins rose. Second-quarter gross margin was 15.2%, against 12.8% in the first quarter, and GAAP operating profit was RMB23.0 million, per the 19 August 2026 results.
  • Revenue is growing fast. First-half 2026 revenue was RMB5,775.7 million, up 33.7% year over year, per the 2026 interim report filed on 21 September 2026.
  • Operating cash flow is positive. The interim report recorded RMB3,384.8 million of cash generated from operations in the first half. It also recorded an RMB1,168.0 million increase in amounts due to related parties, so the figure does not by itself show self-funded growth.

Bear case

  • The decline has not reversed. The shares closed at $8.52 on 11 November 2026, against $11.41 on 13 August 2026. They fell to a 52-week closing low of $7.61 on 3 November 2026 and have recovered only to a $8.10–$8.52 range in the sessions since.
  • Capital spending outruns cash. The interim report recorded RMB4,512.7 million of cash purchases and prepayments for property and equipment in the first half. Cash and equivalents were RMB4,674.3 million at 30 June 2026, down 22.3% from 31 December 2025.
  • Losses remain over six months. First-half GAAP operating loss was RMB143.1 million and net loss was RMB436.7 million, per the interim report. One profitable quarter has not changed the half-year result.
  • Related parties are a large customer. First-half revenue from related parties was RMB1,644.3 million, and the interim report names Xiaomi Group and Kingsoft Group as principal shareholders.
  • Funding could dilute holders. The HKEX August monthly return filed on 4 September 2026 showed 4,531,784,801 issued ordinary shares, unchanged in the month. Continued heavy infrastructure spending raises the chance of a later equity raise.
  • The chief executive post is still acting. Zou Tao became chairman effective 25 March 2026 after Lei Jun resigned, and has been acting chief executive since 2022. No permanent appointment has been announced.

Price setup

The shares closed at $8.52 on 11 November 2026. That is 54.0% below the 52-week high of $18.52 (intraday, 13 May 2026) and 12.0% above the 52-week closing low of $7.61 set on 3 November 2026.

The 50-day average is $9.11 and the 200-day average is $11.87, both measured at the 11 November 2026 close. The shares sit below both, and the 50-day average is the nearest overhead level. The three-month reference close was $11.41 on 13 August 2026, and the three-month change is −25.3%.

The company's 19 August 2026 release is its latest results report, so the price has moved for more than two months without a new company result. The 24 November 2026 report concentrates the next test in one session. The only SEC filing in the last 30 days of company filings is the 20-F for 2025, filed 23 April 2026; no Form 4 insider transactions are listed.

Catalysts ahead

  • 24 November 2026: Q3 2026 results before the US open; call at 7:30 am Eastern Time. A second GAAP operating profit and AI-cloud gross billings of at least RMB1,327 million would test whether the Q2 improvement lasts.
  • ~3 December 2026 (est.): HKEX monthly return for November 2026. It shows whether the issued share count moved from the 4,531,784,801 reported for August.

What would change the view

A daily close above $9.88, which would put the shares above the 50-day average and show them leading again. A third-quarter GAAP operating profit above RMB23.0 million with AI-cloud gross billings above RMB1,327 million would also show that.

What it trades with

Kingsoft Cloud supplies computing capacity for AI workloads, so its billings depend on Chinese customers' AI spending and on its own data-centre build-out. Xiaomi and Kingsoft Group are both shareholders and customers, which ties part of its revenue to their activity. As a Nasdaq-listed Chinese company that also trades in Hong Kong as 3896, it moves with China-linked equities and with sentiment toward AI infrastructure.

The evidence, claim by claim (6)
  1. Q2 2026 AI-cloud gross billings were RMB1,327 million, up 82% year over year and 56% of public-cloud revenue. Kingsoft Cloud Q2 2026 results · as of
  2. Q2 2026 GAAP operating profit was RMB23.0 million and gross margin was 15.2%, against 12.8% in Q1. Kingsoft Cloud Q2 2026 results · as of
  3. First-half 2026 revenue was RMB5,775.7 million, up 33.7% year over year; GAAP operating loss was RMB143.1 million and net loss RMB436.7 million. 2026 interim report filed 21 September 2026 · as of
  4. Cash and equivalents were RMB4,674.3 million, down 22.3% from 31 December 2025; first-half cash purchases and prepayments for property and equipment were RMB4,512.7 million. 2026 interim report filed 21 September 2026 · as of
  5. Kingsoft Cloud will report Q3 2026 results on Tuesday 24 November 2026 before the US market opens, with a call at 7:30 am Eastern Time. Company press release of 29 October 2026 · as of
  6. Issued ordinary shares were 4,531,784,801, unchanged during August. HKEX August monthly return filed 4 September 2026 · as of

Sources

Related · shared themes

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