KEEL · Keel Infrastructure
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $2.96
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
37.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $2.96, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 50.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $2.96, which would put the shares back above their recent 50-day average of closes and show them leading the S&P 500. A signed data-center lease would also show the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 27.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −59.4
- Gross margin (%)
- −52.9
- Operating margin (%)
- −27.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −325
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −152
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −28.3
All filed numbers
What Keel Infrastructure reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 27.6 | −59.4 | −52.9 | −27.8 |
| first filed | 30.4 | −50.0 | −285.1 | −462.6 |
| first filed | 37.0 | −22.4 | −71.1 | −266.0 |
| first filed | 68.0 | — | −3.3 | −27.2 |
| first filed | 60.9 | — | −6.4 | 17.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −60.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −458 | −62.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +10.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −232 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 93.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −325 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 869 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,021 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −152 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 3.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | 9.2 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 274 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,149 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,301 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −28.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 18.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.9 days of average trading to cover, −2.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $334K | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $630K | $0 |
The thesis
Keel Infrastructure, the former Bitfarms bitcoin miner now building artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) data-center campuses, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. It has no signed tenant lease, and at its 5 November 2026 third-quarter report it withdrew the goal of three leases in 2026. A first signed lease is what settles the case.
The shares closed at $1.95 on 12 November 2026, 73.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $7.37 set on 22 June 2026, with a 3-month change of −44.4%. That price sits next to Goldman Sachs's $2 target, set when it began coverage at Neutral on 6 November 2026, and it already reflects a lease slipping into 2027.
Bullish and bearish views on Keel Infrastructure Corp.
The bull case on Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL), in brief: cash covers the build without financing. The bear case: the 2026 lease goal is gone.
Bull case
- Cash covers the build without financing. Keel reported about $780 million of liquidity as of 4 November 2026, down from about $819 million on 7 August 2026. Management said no external financing is needed before a lease is signed.
- Construction has started at the first site. Moses Lake, an 18-megawatt modular facility, began construction in September 2026 and is expected to produce the first HPC revenue in 2027, according to the third-quarter call as summarized by Blockspace.
- Talks continue at all three sites. Management said on 5 November 2026 that negotiations run with multiple prospective tenants across Moses Lake, Sharon and Panther Creek. Panther Creek holds 350 megawatts of secured capacity.
- Insiders keep buying. Director Edith Hofmeister bought 15,000 shares at $1.89 on 9 November 2026, per an SEC Form 4 filed 10 November 2026. CEO Benjamin Gagnon bought 38,888 shares at $3.33 on 21 August 2026 and COO Liam Wilson bought 30,769 shares at $3.25 on 20 August 2026.
- Some analysts still carry targets above the price. HC Wainwright kept Buy with a $3.25 target on 5 November 2026, and Chardan lowered its target to $3.75 on 8 November 2026. Both sit above the $1.95 close.
Bear case
- The 2026 lease goal is gone. The third-quarter report showed no signed lease, and Keel withdrew its year-end target, citing Pennsylvania permitting delays (company news, 11 November 2026). Sharon and Panther Creek substations are now expected to energize in 2027, with revenue from early 2028.
- Permits are still open. Four environmental permits remain outstanding across Sharon and Panther Creek, two at draft stage, per the third-quarter call summary. Load studies for Panther Creek and Scrubgrass are due in the first quarter of 2027.
- Targets are converging on the price. HC Wainwright cut to $3.25 on 5 November 2026, Chardan to $3.75 on 8 November 2026, and Goldman Sachs started at Neutral with a $2 target on 6 November 2026.
- Revenue is shrinking. Third-quarter revenue was $27.6 million against $68.0 million a year earlier, all from Quebec bitcoin mining. The loss from continuing operations was $0.10 per share, including a non-cash charge of about $55 million on capped calls.
- The bitcoin cushion is gone. Stocktwits reported on 5 November 2026 that Keel sold all of its bitcoin. August liquidity had included about $121 million of unencumbered bitcoin.
- A senior legal officer has left. An 8-K filed 10 November 2026 reports that Rachel Silverstein ceased to be executive vice president, general counsel and corporate secretary effective 4 November 2026, during the lease negotiations.
- Debt and issuance sit above the equity. Keel has $458 million of 1.250% convertible senior notes due 15 January 2032 with a conversion reference near $7.41. An automatic S-3 registration filed 7 April 2026 permits common-stock sales in amounts set later.
Price setup
The shares closed at $1.95 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $1.65, set on 5 November 2026, the day of the third-quarter report. Closes since then ran $1.87 on 6 November 2026, $1.96 on 9 November 2026, $1.91 on 10 November 2026 and $2.07 on 11 November 2026.
The shares trade below both the 50-day average of $2.94 and the 200-day average of $3.41 (adjusted daily closes, as of 12 November 2026). A rebound that held above the 50-day average would contradict the lag call.
Supply is the overhang. The S-3 registration allows share sales, and holders of the convertible notes may hedge by selling stock. The next quarterly report date has not been announced.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Panther Creek and Sharon environmental permits; four remain outstanding, two at draft stage. Issuance supports management's claim that 2027 substation energization holds; a further slip pushes first revenue beyond early 2028.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Load studies for Panther Creek and Scrubgrass, due in the first quarter of 2027. These studies set the power-delivery schedule that prospective tenants need before signing a lease.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Earliest realistic window for a first signed HPC/AI lease after the 2026 target was withdrawn. A signed lease would be the first contracted revenue for the AI campuses.
What would change the view
A daily close above $2.96, which would put the shares back above their recent 50-day average of closes and show them leading the S&P 500. A signed data-center lease would also show the call wrong.
What it trades with
Keel trades with other former bitcoin miners that now develop AI data-center capacity, and with news on power availability and utility interconnection timing. Lease announcements by peers can lift the group, while permit and power delays hit developers with no signed tenant hardest.
Bitcoin's price now matters less to the shares. All US mining was decommissioned in April 2026, the remaining revenue comes from Quebec, and Keel has sold its bitcoin holdings. The shares trade on Nasdaq and the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the 2032 convertible notes link the equity to hedging flows around the $7.41 conversion reference.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter revenue was $27.6 million against $68.0 million a year earlier; the loss from continuing operations was $0.10 per share, including a non-cash charge of about $55 million on capped calls. Keel third-quarter 2026 8-K and 10-Q; summary via Blockspace and Stocktwits · as of
- Keel reported no signed HPC/AI lease and no longer expects to sign three leases by year-end 2026, citing Pennsylvania permitting delays. Keel third-quarter 2026 earnings call; Blockspace report · as of
- Liquidity was about $780 million as of 4 November 2026, against about $819 million on 7 August 2026; management said no external financing is needed before a lease is signed. Keel third-quarter 2026 results and call · as of
- Moses Lake, an 18-megawatt modular site, began construction in September 2026 with first HPC revenue expected in 2027; Sharon and Panther Creek substations are expected to energize in 2027, with revenue from early 2028. Keel third-quarter 2026 earnings call; Blockspace report · as of
- Goldman Sachs initiated coverage at Neutral with a $2 price target. Benzinga analyst initiations · as of
- HC Wainwright kept Buy and lowered its target to $3.25; Chardan lowered its target to $3.75. Company news feed (HC Wainwright 5 November 2026; Chardan 8 November 2026) · as of
- Director Edith Hofmeister bought 15,000 shares at $1.89 on 9 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- General counsel Rachel Silverstein ceased serving as executive vice president, general counsel and corporate secretary effective 4 November 2026. Keel 8-K filed 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Keel Infrastructure Corp. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Keel Infrastructure Corp. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Keel Infrastructure Corp. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- blockspace.media
- KEEL starts Moses Lake construction for 2027 HPC revenue as third-quarter revenue falls 59% · blockspace.media
- KEEL Stock Hits 14-Month Low: Q3 Report Reveals Firm Sold All Its Bitcoin But Has No Data Center Leases Yet · stocktwits.com
- Keel Infrastructure Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · webull.com
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