AMKR · Amkor Technology
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $46.10
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $46.10, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 41.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $46.10, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove the call wrong. Fourth-quarter gross margin above the 19.0% top of the guided range would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 27 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,991
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +0.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 18.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 11.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −156
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −120
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.4
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.2
All filed numbers
What Amkor Technology reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,991 | +0.2 | 18.3 | 11.3 |
| first filed | 1,898 | +25.6 | 16.8 | 10.5 |
| first filed | 1,685 | +27.5 | 14.2 | 6.0 |
| first filed | 1,888 | +15.9 | 16.7 | 9.8 |
| first filed | 1,987 | +6.7 | 14.3 | 8.0 |
| first filed | 1,511 | +3.4 | 12.0 | 6.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 230 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 620 | 191 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,513 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1,669 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −156 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,376 |
| Debt ($M) | 2,496 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −120 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +559.0% on a year | 548 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,511 |
| Inventory ($M) | 604 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 4,800 |
| Market value ($M) | 8,948 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 9,068 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 12.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.4 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −1.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.8 days of average trading to cover, −6.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $441K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $507.3M |
The thesis
Amkor Technology is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Demand for its AI packaging is intact, but gross margin, the share of sales left after production costs, missed its own guided range in the third quarter. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether margins recover.
Third-quarter net sales were $1.991 billion, gross margin 18.3%, operating income $225 million and diluted earnings per share $0.76 (Amkor Form 8-K, 26 October 2026). The July guide for gross margin was 18.5–19.5%. Fourth-quarter guidance is net sales of $1.9–2.0 billion, gross margin of 18.0–19.0% and earnings per share of $0.65–0.75.
The market already prices the miss. The shares closed at $37.12 on 12 November 2026, 37.0% lower over three months and 61.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $96.68 set on 16 June 2026. They sit below the 50-day average of $45.63 and the 200-day average of $56.47 (adjusted daily closes).
The shares rebounded from a close of $30.49 on 5 November 2026 to $38.10 on 11 November 2026 and $37.12 on 12 November 2026. No new company result or guidance accompanied the move.
Bullish and bearish views on Amkor Technology, Inc.
The bull case on Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR), in brief: margins have risen three quarters running. The bear case: gross margin missed its own range.
Bull case
- Margins have risen three quarters running. Gross margin was 14.2% in the first quarter, 16.8% in the second and 18.3% in the third (Amkor results releases, 27 April 2026, 27 July 2026 and 26 October 2026). The fourth-quarter guide of 18.0–19.0% brackets the third-quarter result.
- Nvidia commitments are large and multi-year. Amkor announced a $1.3 billion Nvidia agreement for South Korea packaging capacity on 21 October 2026. I-Connect007 reports that Amkor's Nvidia agreements in Arizona and South Korea now total $3 billion.
- Korea capacity is being built. Amkor's 11 November 2026 news release is titled "Amkor Technology Breaks Ground on Expansion in Gwangju, South Korea". South Korea's trade ministry figures, reported by Black Ridge Research on 20 October 2026, put the expanded plan at $2.25 billion through 2031 and about 2,000 jobs, with two of four buildings due in the second half of 2027 and two in the first half of 2028.
- Record revenue in two end markets. CEO Kevin Engel said on 26 October 2026 that Amkor delivered record revenue in Computing and in Automotive & Industrial.
- Balance sheet covers the spending. Fiscal 2026 capital spending is about $2.5 billion, the bottom of the earlier $2.5–3.0 billion range. Cash and short-term investments were $2.4 billion against total debt of $2.5 billion (Form 8-K, 26 October 2026).
Bear case
- Gross margin missed its own range. The 18.3% result sat under the 18.5% floor of the July guide (Amkor, 26 October 2026). Earnings per share of $0.76 missed the $0.78 estimate and sales of $1.991 billion missed the $2.013 billion estimate (Benzinga, 26 October 2026).
- The fourth-quarter guide is below estimates. Guided sales of $1.9–2.0 billion compare with a $2.021 billion estimate, and guided earnings per share of $0.65–0.75 with $0.76 (Benzinga, 26 October 2026).
- Analyst targets keep falling. On 27 October 2026 B. Riley cut to $41, Morgan Stanley to $63 (Equal-weight) and Needham to $55 (Buy). B. Riley cut again to $38 with a Neutral rating on 9 November 2026 (analyst rating headlines).
- Executives sold into the rebound. CEO Kevin Engel sold 1,000 shares at $35.00 on 9 November 2026 and CFO Megan Faust sold 1,000 shares at $35.00 on 10 November 2026, both under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plans (SEC Form 4 filings of 10 November 2026 and 12 November 2026). The CFO also sold 1,000 shares at $46.92 on 13 October 2026 and at $49.05 on 8 September 2026.
- Arizona costs come before revenue. Management guided the Arizona ramp as a gross-margin headwind in 2027 and 2028 from underutilisation (Amkor, 27 July 2026).
- Contract values are not revenue. The Nvidia and TSMC agreements carry no disclosed volume or recognition schedule, and the TSMC deal's financial terms were not disclosed (Benzinga, 16 June 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $37.12 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $45.63 and the 200-day average of $56.47 (adjusted daily closes). The three-month change is −37.0%, measured from the adjusted close of $58.88 on 14 August 2026.
The 52-week closing low is $30.19, set on 20 November 2025. The close of $30.49 on 5 November 2026 came within a few days of that low before the rebound began. The 52-week intraday high is $96.68, set on 16 June 2026.
Closes in the latest sessions were $32.82 on 6 November 2026, $35.00 on 9 November 2026, $34.47 on 10 November 2026, $38.10 on 11 November 2026 and $37.12 on 12 November 2026. The single-day rise on 11 November 2026 coincided with the Gwangju groundbreaking release, but the shares gave back part of it the next session.
The Kim family holds over 49% of the common after the 12 February 2026 secondary of 10 million shares at $48.75. Director Roger Carolin exercised 20,000 options at $8.51 on 5 November 2026 (SEC Form 4).
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Tests the guided 18.0–19.0% gross margin and $1.9–2.0 billion of net sales, and gives the first read on 2027 Arizona underutilisation.
What would change the view
A daily close above $46.10, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove the call wrong. Fourth-quarter gross margin above the 19.0% top of the guided range would point the same way.
What it trades with
Amkor trades with the AI semiconductor group through its customers, TSMC and Nvidia. Its competition comes from TSMC's own advanced packaging and Intel's packaging business, and Zacks cites the ramp of Intel's EMIB-T packaging technology to high volume in 2027 as a competitive risk. Amkor's capital spending and Arizona and Korea expansions tie its margins to utilisation of new capacity, which depends on those same customers' ordering.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales $1.991 billion, gross margin 18.3% against a guided 18.5–19.5%, operating income $225 million, net income $191 million, diluted earnings per share $0.76. Amkor Form 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: net sales $1.9–2.0 billion, gross margin 18.0–19.0%, net income $160–185 million, earnings per share $0.65–0.75. Amkor Form 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter earnings per share of $0.76 compared with a $0.78 estimate and sales of $1.991 billion with a $2.013 billion estimate; fourth-quarter sales guide compared with a $2.021 billion estimate. Benzinga, 26 October 2026 · as of
- Amkor announced a $1.3 billion multi-year agreement with Nvidia to expand packaging capacity in South Korea. Amkor announcement via Benzinga · as of
- South Korea's trade ministry figures put the expanded Gwangju plan at $2.25 billion through 2031 and about 2,000 jobs, up from $750.85 million and about 1,000 jobs, with four advanced packaging buildings planned. Black Ridge Research, 20 October 2026 · as of
- B. Riley kept a Neutral rating and cut its price target to $38 from $41. Analyst rating headlines, 9 November 2026 · as of
- CFO Megan Faust sold 1,000 shares at $35.00 on 10 November 2026 and CEO Kevin Engel sold 1,000 shares at $35.00 on 9 November 2026, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans. SEC Form 4 filings, 10 November 2026 and 12 November 2026 · as of
- Closed at $37.12 on 12 November 2026, 37.0% lower over three months and below the 50-day average of $45.63 and 200-day average of $56.47. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Amkor Begins $2 Billion-Plus Semiconductor Packaging Plant Expansion in South Korea · blackridgeresearch.com ·
- I-Connect007
- Zacks
Related · shared themes
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's record October sales of NT$586.89 billion put fourth-quarter revenue on pace for the top of guidance…
AMAT
Applied Materials
Applied Materials looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: a 12 November 2026 outlook for more than 30%…
LRCX
Lam Research
Lam Research shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because a buyback-led rebound still runs ahead of…
ATEYY
Advantest
Advantest Corporation's AI chip-testing demand rests on customer volumes, and they are still rising: TSMC's October revenue, reported on 10…