EVC · Entravision Communication
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $7.50
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $7.50, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 7.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $7.50, the 5 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report re-rating. Fourth-quarter ATS revenue growth at or below 100% year over year would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 226
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +87.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 50.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 12.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 60.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −62.6
- Price to earnings (×)
- 30.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.3
All filed numbers
What Entravision Communication reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 226 | +87.6 | 50.3 | 12.5 |
| first filed | 228 | +126.2 | 48.3 | 13.1 |
| first filed | 197 | +114.4 | 48.2 | 10.5 |
| first filed | 134 | +25.6 | 54.1 | −15.4 |
| first filed | 121 | +24.2 | 57.7 | −7.5 |
| first filed | 101 | +21.9 | 62.3 | −0.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 25.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 32.9 | 19.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +14.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 71.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 10.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 60.5 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 89.7 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 152 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −62.6 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +142.4% on a year | 5.8 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 152 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 102 |
| Market value ($M) | 989 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,052 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 18.0 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 30.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 6.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.5 days of average trading to cover, +1.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $294K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $40.9M |
The thesis
Entravision's advertising-technology business beat management's growth guide in the third quarter, and the shares have kept the post-report gain. The rating is Medium because profit now comes mainly from that business. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early 2027, settles the case: it shows whether Advertising Technology & Services (ATS) revenue grows more than 100% year over year, as management forecast.
The 5 November 2026 report showed ATS revenue of $177.2 million, up 133% from $76.1 million, and ATS operating profit of $35.2 million, up from $9.8 million (company release). Consolidated revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million. Benzinga reported earnings of $0.18 per share against a loss of $0.11 a year earlier. On the 6 November 2026 call, management said it expects fourth-quarter ATS growth of more than 100% and gave no sequential guide.
Since the report, the shares have built on the gain. They closed at $7.50 on 5 November 2026 before the release, at $8.99 on 6 November 2026 and at $9.97 on 11 November 2026. No company news or analyst action was found for the 11 November 2026 session. At that close, the shares are 27.4% below the 52-week high of $13.74 set on 6 July 2026. On that reading, the market has priced the third-quarter beat but not a return to its July valuation.
Bullish and bearish views on Entravision Communication
The bull case on Entravision Communication (EVC), in brief: ATS beat its own guide. The bear case: ATS depends on a few advertisers.
Bull case
- ATS beat its own guide. Third-quarter ATS revenue grew 133% year over year, against management's 10 August 2026 forecast of more than 100% (company release, 5 November 2026). Revenue fell 3% from the second quarter's $182.8 million. Management blamed varying spending by large clients.
- ATS profit is large and rising. ATS operating profit was $35.2 million in the third quarter, up 261% year over year (company release, 5 November 2026). The company credits more monthly active advertisers and higher revenue per advertiser.
- Broadcast stopped losing money. Third-quarter Media revenue rose 10% to $49.1 million, and the segment earned an operating profit of $0.1 million, against a $3.5 million loss a year earlier (company release, 5 November 2026). On the call, management said it expects the Media segment to be profitable in 2027 after a cost reset.
- Debt is coming down. Long-term debt including current maturities was $152.3 million at 30 September 2026, and cash and marketable securities were $89.7 million (third-quarter 10-Q). Debt was $157.3 million at 30 June 2026. Management said $15 million of debt was repaid in the first nine months of 2026 and plans a capital allocation review in early 2027 (Yahoo Finance, 6 November 2026).
- A cash sale shrinks the broadcast business. On 3 November 2026, Entravision agreed to sell WFTT-TV in Tampa-St. Petersburg to Sunset Boulevard Broadcasting for $30.0 million in cash. The deal needs regulatory approval and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027 (Form 8-K, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- ATS depends on a few advertisers. The third-quarter 10-Q, filed 5 November 2026, lists the company's "dependence upon a few large advertisers, primarily in Asia" as a risk. Management gave no sequential guide for the fourth quarter (6 November 2026 call).
- The Univision affiliation is ending in practice. On 6 November 2026, management said it will "explore strategic alternatives for our TV business without a Univision affiliation." The TelevisaUnivision agreements run to 31 March 2027.
- Media still lost money over nine months. The nine-month Media operating loss was $8.4 million, even after the third quarter broke even (company release, 5 November 2026). Political advertising helped that quarter, and US political advertising is much smaller in odd-numbered years such as 2027.
- Debt exceeds cash. Debt of $152.3 million compares with $89.7 million of cash and marketable securities at 30 September 2026. Current maturities are $20.0 million (third-quarter 10-Q).
- A director sold before the report. Director Paul Zevnik sold 35,000 shares on the open market at $8.40 on 4 September 2026 (SEC Form 4). Chief Executive Michael Christenson exercised options on 200,000 shares on 16 September 2026 (SEC Form 4), a transaction that was not an open-market purchase.
Price setup
The shares closed at $9.97 on 11 November 2026, well above the 50-day moving average of $7.38 and the 200-day moving average of $6.93, both as of that close (adjusted daily closes). The three-month change is 13.0%. That leaves the shares 27.4% below the 52-week high of $13.74 reached during trading on 6 July 2026. The 52-week closing low is $2.57, set on 20 November 2025.
The levels that matter are the $7.50 close of 5 November 2026, the last price before the third-quarter release, and the $8.99 close of 6 November 2026, the first session after it. The shares have closed above $8.99 on every session since: $9.30 on 9 November 2026, $9.11 on 10 November 2026 and $9.97 on 11 November 2026. Holding above the 50-day average would show that the market still accepts the post-report re-rating. Results are not due before early 2027.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 December 2026: Record date for the $0.05 quarterly dividend on Class A and Class U shares, payable 31 December 2026. Shows cash returns to shareholders continuing while debt is paid down ahead of the capital allocation review.
- ~31 January 2027 (est.): Closing of the $30.0 million WFTT-TV sale, expected in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. Turns a broadcast station into cash and shows how fast Entravision can exit TV assets without a Univision affiliation.
- ~5 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether ATS revenue grew more than 100% year over year as guided, and gives the first 2027 outlook for Media profit.
- 31 March 2027: TelevisaUnivision agreements reach the end of their term. Sets the timetable for the TV business to run without a Univision affiliation or be sold.
What would change the view
A daily close below $7.50, the 5 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report re-rating. Fourth-quarter ATS revenue growth at or below 100% year over year would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- ATS revenue from a few large advertisers, mainly in Asia, falls further than the 3% sequential decline in the third quarter. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter ATS growth at or below 100% year over year, or ATS operating profit below the third quarter's $35.2 million.
- The Univision affiliation ends and the TV stations lose value or need costly restructuring. Confirmed by: a non-renewal notice in an Entravision filing, or further station sales priced below the $30.0 million WFTT-TV deal.
- The WFTT-TV sale fails to close or is delayed beyond the first quarter of 2027. Confirmed by: a filing reporting termination of the purchase agreement or a failure to obtain regulatory approval.
- Media profit depended on political advertising that shrinks in 2027. Confirmed by: a Media operating loss in the first quarter of 2027, after the third-quarter 2026 profit of $0.1 million.
What it trades with
Entravision trades on its own ATS results more than with any sector group. ATS centres on Smadex, a mobile-advertising platform, so its revenue follows the app-marketing budgets of large advertisers, mainly in Asia according to the 10-Q. Those are the same budgets that drive mobile ad-technology peers such as AppLovin. The broadcast segment follows Spanish-language television advertising and the political calendar. It contributed $49.1 million of the $226.3 million in third-quarter revenue.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 ATS revenue was $177.2 million, up 133% from $76.1 million; ATS operating profit was $35.2 million, up 261% from $9.8 million. Entravision Q3 2026 results release, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue was $226.3 million, up 88% from $120.6 million; earnings per share were $0.18 against a loss of $0.11 a year earlier. Entravision Q3 2026 results release; Benzinga 5 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter Media revenue was $49.1 million, up 10%, with an operating profit of $0.1 million versus a $3.5 million loss; the nine-month Media operating loss was $8.4 million. Entravision Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Debt including current maturities was $152.3 million, of which $20.0 million is current; cash and marketable securities were $89.7 million. Entravision Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- The 10-Q cites dependence upon a few large advertisers, primarily in Asia, as a risk to results. Entravision Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Entravision agreed to sell WFTT-TV to Sunset Boulevard Broadcasting for $30.0 million in cash, subject to regulatory approval; closing is expected in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. Entravision Form 8-K filed 5 November 2026 · as of
- Management expects fourth-quarter ATS revenue growth of more than 100% year over year and gave no sequential guide. Q3 2026 earnings call, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Director Paul Zevnik sold 35,000 shares in the open market at $8.40. SEC Form 4 filed 4 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- Entravision Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · stocktitan.net
- ENTRAVISION COMMUNICATIONS CORP - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- ENTRAVISION COMMUNICATIONS CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Entravision (EVC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Entravision: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors · finance.yahoo.com ·
- Entravision Posts Profit As Ad Tech Powers Q3 · radioink.com ·
Related · shared themes
U
Unity Software
Unity Software's advertising turnaround and reported takeover interest make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500…
MGNI
Magnite
Magnite's connected-TV growth beat guidance by a wide margin and lifted its 2026 outlook, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500.…
PUBM
PubMatic
PubMatic's Q3 2026 beat, with revenue up 17% to $79.6 million and connected TV growth above 30%, supports a revenue recovery the shares…
STGW
Stagwell
Stagwell's technology and data units are lifting profit faster than revenue, with third-quarter adjusted EBITDA up 25% on 10% revenue…