PURR · Hyperliquid Strategies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $12.29
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
29.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $12.29, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 21.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $12.29, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and break this call. A return of mNAV above 1.0x on purrmnav.com, which would restart issuance-funded HYPE buying, would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 12.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 6593.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 255
- Price to earnings (×)
- 2.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 99.3
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 1.6
All filed numbers
What Hyperliquid Strategies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 12.2 | — | 6593.3 |
| first filed | 6.3 | — | 9595.1 |
| first filed | 2.6 | — | 7380.6 |
| first filed | 0.5 | — | −57509.2 |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 793 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 940 | 621 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not available |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −36.1 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 255 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 255 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,403 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,410 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 2,155 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 99.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 1.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 2.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.9 days of average trading to cover, −4.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Hyperliquid Strategies, which holds the HYPE token, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months. Its shares trade below the value of its tokens, which pauses the share sales that grew its holdings, so per-share growth now rests on buybacks and on the HYPE price. The fiscal second-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, shows whether buybacks raised tokens per share.
The company filed its fiscal first-quarter 10-Q on 5 November 2026. Net income for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 was $620.6 million, driven mainly by an $803.0 million unrealized gain on HYPE. Holdings rose to about 38.52 million HYPE at 30 September 2026, valued at $3,505.3 million at $90.99 per token, from 29.3 million at 30 June 2026. Cash and cash-like instruments were $254.6 million, with no debt (company results release, 5 November 2026).
The tracker purrmnav.com showed an adjusted market-to-net-asset-value multiple (mNAV) of 0.93x on 6 November 2026, a 7.11% discount, with adjusted net asset value (NAV) per share of $9.49 and HYPE at $78.57. The shares closed at $8.80 on 12 November 2026. Company policy bars equity-facility sales below 1.0x NAV, so issuance-funded buying stays paused while the discount lasts.
Bullish and bearish views on Hyperliquid Strategies Inc
The bull case on Hyperliquid Strategies Inc (PURR), in brief: buybacks retire shares below asset value. The bear case: the premium that funded growth is gone.
Bull case
- Buybacks retire shares below asset value. The company repurchased about 2.7 million shares for $17 million in the quarter at an average of $6.36, and cumulative repurchases through 28 October 2026 were $27.9 million for about 5.8 million shares at an average of $4.81 (company results release, 5 November 2026). The board raised the authorization from $30 million to $100 million on 23 October 2026, with about $72 million remaining (Crypto Briefing).
- Holdings kept growing after quarter-end. The company bought 9.1 million HYPE for $785 million at an average of $86.44 in the quarter and held about 38.9 million HYPE on 28 October 2026, including staking and validator rewards (earnings call, 5 November 2026).
- The balance sheet carries no debt and some income. Staking revenue and validator commissions were $12.3 million for the quarter. Management targets a baseline expense run rate of $4 million to $4.5 million, excluding equity compensation of $1.5 million to $2 million per quarter (earnings call, 5 November 2026).
- An analyst target sits far above the close. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight and raised its price target to $35 on 6 November 2026, a day after the 10-Q. The shares closed at $8.80 on 12 November 2026.
- Institutions are building on Hyperliquid. Intercontinental Exchange agreed on 29 October 2026 to invest in trade[XYZ] and operate a regulated U.S. perpetual-futures venue, subject to regulatory approval (FXStreet). The company is also applying to become a futures commission merchant, with management calling a launch within three to six months aspirational (earnings call, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- The premium that funded growth is gone. Adjusted mNAV fell from 1.19x on 21 September 2026 to 1.12x on 30 September 2026, 1.03x on 13 October 2026, 0.97x on 26 October 2026 and 0.93x on 6 November 2026 (purrmnav.com). Selling shares at a discount would lower value per share.
- Recent issuance was priced well above today's shares. The company raised $911 million net in the quarter by issuing 74.6 million shares at an average net price of $12.20, and cumulative facility proceeds through 28 October 2026 were $1,578.4 million at an average issue price of $10.36 (company results release, 5 November 2026). It also booked $15.3 million of other expense from share-price moves between issuance and settlement.
- Profit follows the token price. The quarter's $620.6 million net income came almost entirely from the $803.0 million unrealized HYPE gain. HYPE was $78.57 on 6 November 2026 on purrmnav.com, against the $90.99 used for the 30 September 2026 valuation.
- Warrants and preferred stock dilute common holders. 27,394,800 warrant shares are struck at $9.375, $12.50 and $18.75, and the Series A Preferred converts at $6.25 and participates as-converted. Seven directors reported awards of 17,123 shares each, dated 5 November 2026, on SEC Form 4 filings. They are grants, and no open-market insider purchases appear in recent filings.
- A regulatory inquiry is open. House investigators opened an insider-trading inquiry into Hyperliquid on 29 September 2026, citing a $1.1 billion short placed before a tariff announcement (Benzinga).
Price setup
The shares closed at $8.80 on 12 November 2026, after $9.15 on 11 November 2026, $8.75 on 10 November 2026, $8.91 on 9 November 2026 and $8.81 on 6 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $11.0 and above the 200-day average of $7.9. The 52-week high is $14.76, reached intraday on 21 September 2026, and the last close is 40.4% below it. The 52-week closing low is $3.10 on 29 December 2025.
The three-month change is +31.8%, measured from the $6.68 close of 14 August 2026. The shares have not recovered the levels of September, when mNAV was above 1.1x.
A 2x leveraged single-stock exchange-traded fund has traded on the name since 8 July 2026, and listed options trade on the common shares, which amplify moves in both directions. The company's fiscal year ends 30 June, and the next report covers the quarter ending 31 December 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- Early February 2027 (est.): Fiscal second-quarter report for the quarter ending 31 December 2026; date not announced. Shows whether buybacks and any resumed issuance raised HYPE per diluted share from the 30 September 2026 level and how the HYPE price moved the reported profit.
- Spring 2027 (est.): Futures commission merchant application and launch; management called three to six months from 5 November 2026 aspirational. Approval would add a U.S. customer business tied to Hyperliquid markets; delay would leave the shares driven by HYPE and the NAV discount.
What would change the view
A daily close above $12.29, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and break this call. A return of mNAV above 1.0x on purrmnav.com, which would restart issuance-funded HYPE buying, would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
The shares track HYPE closely. On purrmnav.com the discount widened from 0.97x to 0.93x between 26 October 2026 and 6 November 2026 while HYPE moved only from $77.65 to $78.57, so the shares weakened on their own as well. Crypto-linked equities moved together on 3 November 2026, when Benzinga reported RIOT, COIN and MSTR up as much as 16%. Hyperliquid-specific news, such as the ICE and trade[XYZ] announcements and the House inquiry, moves HYPE and the shares together.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal first-quarter net income was $620.6 million, driven by an $803.0 million unrealized HYPE gain; staking revenue and validator commissions were $12.3 million. Company results release, quarter ended 30 September 2026 (5 November 2026) · as of
- The company held about 38.52 million HYPE, valued at $3,505.3 million, with $254.6 million of cash and cash-like instruments and zero debt; about 38.9 million HYPE and $245.3 million of cash on 28 October 2026. Company results release (5 November 2026) · as of
- The company issued 74.6 million shares through the equity facility at an average net price of $12.20, raising $911 million net, and repurchased about 2.7 million shares for $17 million at an average of $6.36. Fiscal first-quarter earnings call (5 November 2026) · as of
- Cumulative repurchases through 28 October 2026 were $27.9 million for about 5.8 million shares at an average of $4.81; cumulative facility proceeds were $1,578.4 million at an average issue price of $10.36. Company results release (5 November 2026) · as of
- Adjusted mNAV was 0.93x (7.11% discount), adjusted NAV per share $9.49, PURR close $8.81 and HYPE $78.57; mNAV was 0.97x on 26 October 2026. purrmnav.com · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight on Hyperliquid Strategies and raised its price target to $35. Cantor Fitzgerald rating headline, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Board raised the share repurchase program from $30 million to $100 million and extended it to 31 October 2027; about $72 million remained available. Crypto Briefing, 23 October 2026 · as of
- Seven directors each reported a grant or award of 17,123 shares dated 5 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings (9 November 2026 and 12 November 2026) · as of
Sources
- Hyperliquid Strategies Earnings: $620.6M Net Income · stocktitan.net ·
- Hyperliquid Strategies Q1 Earnings Call Highlights · finance.yahoo.com
- purrmnav.com ·
- FXStreet ·
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