RUM · Rumble
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $7.03
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $7.03, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 30.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $7.03, over both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A disclosed committed financing package for Maysville, or a signed replacement agreement of comparable value, would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
RUM Group runs the Rumble video and advertising platform and Quake AI, a GPU cloud that rents NVIDIA graphics processors to AI customers. Quarterly revenue was $96.6 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026, of which Quake AI was $68.2 million.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 11 November 2026 the company reported third-quarter revenue of $96.6 million, up 290% from a year earlier, and said it is discussing an alternative path with the customer for the $13.7 billion Maysville contract.
- What follows for the company
- Fourth-quarter revenue is guided to $88–94 million, fixed H100 contracts end after that quarter, and part of the 250 megawatts of unmonetized capacity targeted for 2027 may move beyond 2027.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- The Maysville customer is unnamed. GPU-cloud peers CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) face the same tight credit for data-center builds; NVIDIA (NVDA) is the GPU supplier.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 12 November 2026) the shares trade at P/B 1.8 and a free-cash-flow yield of −9.0%, for a market value of $2,451 million; P/E is not meaningful and EV/sales is not available. That holds only if revenue keeps growing from $96.6 million a quarter and the −87.6% operating margin narrows enough to stop the $221 million four-quarter cash burn.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 96.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +290.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 81.7
- Operating margin (%)
- −87.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −221
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −9.0
All filed numbers
What Rumble reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 96.6 | +290.0 | — | −87.6 |
| first filed | 40.4 | +60.9 | 81.7 | −175.3 |
| first filed | 25.5 | +7.4 | −6.0 | −153.6 |
| first filed | 27.1 | −10.5 | 5.5 | −131.1 |
| first filed | 24.8 | −1.2 | −1.8 | −113.6 |
| first filed restated | 25.1 | +11.6 | 78.2 | −106.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −90.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −222 | −79.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +63.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −143 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 77.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −221 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 134 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +50.2% on a year | 23.5 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 62.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 1,343 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,451 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −9.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.3 days of average trading to cover, +7.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $10.0M | $0 |
Linked companies · as of
- Suppliers:
- NVDA
The thesis
The shares of RUM Group, formerly Rumble, are more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The company beat its third-quarter revenue guide, but the $13.7 billion Maysville graphics processing unit (GPU) contract behind the growth case is being reworked and still has no disclosed financing. A committed funding package or a signed replacement agreement with the customer would settle the question; the company has put no date on either.
The 11 November 2026 report was a strong operating quarter. Revenue was $96.6 million, up 290% from a year earlier, against a guide of $87.0–93.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) was $4.4 million, which the company called its first profitable quarter on that basis. The shares closed at $5.96 that day, up from $5.11 on 10 November 2026.
The contract news points the other way. On the call, Chief Executive Chris Pavlovski said the company is "in active discussions with our customer on an alternative path forward to deliver that AI compute," which he said could be "a more financeable project." He also said financing markets "have become quite difficult for data center and AI build-outs." The release says part of the 250 megawatts of unmonetized capacity targeted for 2027 may slip beyond 2027.
The price already carries that doubt. The shares closed at $5.77 on 13 November 2026, 45.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $10.60 set on 25 August 2026, the day after the contract was disclosed. In this analyst's view, the Maysville revenue gets little credit until terms and funding are public.
Bullish and bearish views on Rumble Inc.
The bull case on Rumble Inc. (RUM), in brief: revenue beat the top of the guide. The bear case: the anchor contract is being renegotiated.
Bull case
- Revenue beat the top of the guide. Third-quarter revenue of $96.6 million topped the $87.0–93.0 million guide and the $89.103 million consensus cited by Benzinga on 11 November 2026. Quake AI, the GPU-cloud unit, contributed $68.2 million, more than 70% of the total.
- Adjusted EBITDA turned positive. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $4.4 million, against −$16.61 million in the second quarter, according to the company's 11 November 2026 and 10 August 2026 releases.
- The existing fleet stays busy. The company reported about 22,000 NVIDIA GPUs at roughly 85% utilization for the third quarter, the same rate as the second quarter (11 November 2026 release).
- Management prefers customer money to new shares. On the 11 November 2026 call, Chief Financial Officer Michael Masci said customer prepayments "are really going to be a large portion of the financing" for the 250-megawatt build, and that debt may be used selectively.
- Deferred revenue is growing. Deferred revenue was $23 million at 30 September 2026, up 50.2% from a year earlier (10-Q filed 12 November 2026).
Bear case
- The anchor contract is being renegotiated. The 24 August 2026 8-K described about $13.7 billion of GPU services over six years at Maysville, Georgia. On 11 November 2026 management said it is discussing an "alternative path" with the customer and gave no size or timing.
- Funding is still missing. The 24 August 2026 8-K said the company lacks financing for the required spending. Management described lenders on 11 November 2026 as doing "more vigorous diligence on every customer and every operator."
- Cash is falling and shares are multiplying. Cash and equivalents were $134.4 million on 30 September 2026, down from $203.3 million on 30 June 2026. Free cash flow was −$221 million over the four quarters to that date, and the diluted share count rose 63.0% from a year earlier (10-Q filed 12 November 2026).
- The fourth quarter steps down. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $88–94 million on 11 November 2026, below the third quarter's $96.6 million. Masci said the third quarter included a barter agreement worth "a little over $3 million" that will not repeat, and that the fixed H100 contracts end after the fourth quarter.
- Losses remain large. The operating margin was −87.6% in the quarter to 30 September 2026. Net loss attributable to the company was $79.9 million, or −$0.19 per share, against a −$0.12 estimate cited by Benzinga on 11 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $5.77 on 13 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $6.8 and the 200-day moving average of $6.68, and the 3-month change is −30.0% from the $8.24 close of 17 August 2026.
Before the report the shares sat close to the year's low. They closed at $4.92 on 6 November 2026, $5.08 on 9 November 2026 and $5.11 on 10 November 2026, against a 52-week closing low of $4.67 on 30 March 2026. The report-day close of $5.96 on 11 November 2026 was followed by $5.71 on 12 November 2026 and $5.77 on 13 November 2026, so part of the jump has already faded.
In this analyst's view, the move was a rebound from near the low, and the case turns on Maysville terms and funding.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 December 2026: Northern Data AG shares cease trading in the Munich Freiverkehr. Ends public trading for Northern Data minority holders and completes the consolidation of the acquired GPU business into Quake AI.
- ~2 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Tests the $88–94 million fourth-quarter revenue guide and whether adjusted EBITDA stays positive. It is also the likeliest place for revised Maysville terms, financing and the 2027 capacity timeline.
What would change the view
A daily close above $7.03, over both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A disclosed committed financing package for Maysville, or a signed replacement agreement of comparable value, would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
RUM Group trades with GPU-cloud peers such as CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) on credit conditions for data-center builds. On 11 November 2026 management tied its slower 250-megawatt timeline directly to tighter financing markets, so peer debt pricing and peer funding announcements bear on the Maysville outcome. The bitcoin link has shrunk: holdings fell to 94.68 coins worth $7.9 million by 30 September 2026, so crypto prices now have little effect on the balance sheet.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $96.6 million, up 290% from a year earlier; Quake AI contributed $68.2 million; adjusted EBITDA was $4.4 million; net loss attributable to the company was $79.9 million, or −$0.19 per share. RUM Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue guidance is $88–94 million, against a $91.772 million consensus estimate cited by Benzinga. RUM Group third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Management said it is in active discussions with the Maysville customer on an alternative path forward that could be a more financeable project. RUM Group third-quarter 2026 earnings call · as of
- Part of the previously disclosed 250 megawatts of unmonetized capacity targeted for 2027 may be pushed out beyond 2027. RUM Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $134.4 million plus 94.68 bitcoin worth $7.9 million; convertible notes payable were $358.8 million. RUM Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Free cash flow was −$221 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, and the diluted share count rose 63.0% from a year earlier. Form 10-Q for the quarter to 30 September 2026 (SEC XBRL) · as of
- The Maysville agreement covers up to about $13.7 billion of GPU services over six years, with a warrant for up to 50,808,408 Class A shares at $0.01; the company said it lacked financing for the required spending. RUM Group Form 8-K · as of
- Third-quarter revenue included a barter agreement worth a little over $3 million that is not expected to repeat; fixed H100 contracts end after the fourth quarter of 2026. RUM Group third-quarter 2026 earnings call · as of
Sources
- RUM Group Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results · rum.group
- Earnings call transcript: RUM Group posts record Q3 2026 revenue, shares jump 15% · investing.com ·
- Rumble Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · benzinga.com
- SEC EDGAR
- Rum Group signs up to $13.7bn lease agreement with unnamed US cloud customer · datacenterdynamics.com
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