TTMI · TTM Technologies
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $65
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $65.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 47.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $65, which would return the shares toward the $62.22 close of 5 November 2026 and undo the rebound. Fourth-quarter 2026 sales below the $1.420 billion low end of guidance, or total book-to-bill under 1.0, would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 28 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,204
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +59.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 24.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 13.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 14.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −768
- Price to earnings (×)
- 29.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.2
All filed numbers
What TTM Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,204 | +59.9 | 24.2 | 13.5 |
| first filed | 1,004 | +37.4 | 21.1 | 10.9 |
| first filed | 846 | +30.4 | 21.4 | 8.6 |
| first filed | 774 | +18.9 | 21.4 | 10.4 |
| first filed | 753 | +22.1 | 20.8 | 9.6 |
| first filed | 731 | +20.7 | 20.3 | 8.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 142 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 269 | 84.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 29 September 2025 | +1.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 336 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 321 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 14.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 876 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,644 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −768 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +22.5% on a year | 220 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 836 |
| Inventory ($M) | 325 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,042 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,806 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,574 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 20.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 29.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.7 days of average trading to cover, +20.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $3.9M | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $3.9M | $35.6M |
The thesis
TTM Technologies' record AI data-center board sales make the shares modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months, after a 45.5% fall. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected around February 2027, settles whether shipments hold the run rate and whether debt-funded growth pays.
The 22 October 2026 report beat on every headline number. Third-quarter net sales were $1.204 billion, up 60% from a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.46. Total book-to-bill, the ratio of new orders to shipments, was 2.13 (company release, 22 October 2026).
The shares closed at $102.15 on 21 October 2026 and $73.89 on 22 October 2026. They fell to $62.22 on 5 November 2026, then rebounded to $76.28 on 12 November 2026. StockStory reported a 13% jump in the afternoon of 9 November 2026 and tied it to a drop in crude oil prices (Brent near $94 a barrel) that lifted the broad market. The 10-Q quarterly filing reached the SEC on 28 October 2026.
Insiders and the company have bought into the decline. Directors Wajid Ali and Philip Franklin made open-market purchases on 5 November 2026 at $63.15 and $61.92 a share (SEC Form 4 filings, 5 November 2026 and 9 November 2026).
Bullish and bearish views on TTM Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI), in brief: orders turned into sales. The bear case: the fourth-quarter guide matched estimates.
Bull case
- Orders turned into sales. Third-quarter net sales of $1.204 billion beat TTM's own guide of $1.100–1.140 billion. Data Center & Networking revenue grew 115% from a year earlier to 41% of sales (company release, 22 October 2026).
- Backlog keeps growing. The 90-day backlog was $1.3 billion and Aerospace & Defense program backlog was $2.0 billion at the end of the third quarter (company release, 22 October 2026). The 90-day figure is cancellable by customers.
- Guidance stepped up. Preliminary fiscal 2027 guidance is sales of $6.5–6.75 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $8.10–8.90, excluding pending acquisitions (company release, 22 October 2026).
- The company is buying its own shares. TTM repurchased about 1.16 million shares for about $100 million at an average of $86.31 on 26 October 2026 and 27 October 2026, then authorised a new $100 million program that runs to 27 October 2027 (iconnect007, 30 October 2026).
- Insiders keep buying. CEO Edwin Roks bought 5,000 shares at $88.07 and director Wajid Ali bought 10,000 shares at an average $90.25 on 28 October 2026. Ali bought 10,000 more at $63.15 on 5 November 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
Bear case
- The fourth-quarter guide matched estimates. Sales guidance of $1.420–1.440 billion compared with a $1.433 billion estimate, and adjusted earnings per share guidance of $1.77–1.83 compared with $1.81 (Benzinga, 22 October 2026). A large beat followed by an in-line outlook is what the shares sold on.
- Leverage rose. Net leverage was 2.8 times pro-forma adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) at 30 September 2026. Long-term debt was $1,459.9 million and short-term debt was $184 million (company release, 22 October 2026).
- More cash acquisitions are pending. TTM agreed on 19 October 2026 to buy MKS's Ophir Optics business for about $650 million in cash. It is excluded from guidance, and closing is targeted for the second quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory approvals (TTM and MKS announcements, iconnect007).
- The shares swing with the market. StockStory counted 81 moves of more than 5% in the past year as of 9 November 2026. Investing.com put TTM's beta, a measure of moves against the market, at 2.14 on 22 October 2026.
- The CEO's latest purchase sits above the market. The $88.07 price paid on 28 October 2026 compares with the $76.28 close on 12 November 2026.
Price setup
The last close of $76.28 (12 November 2026) is above the $73.89 close of 22 October 2026, the first session after the report. It is below the 50-day average of $105.64 and the 200-day average of $127.10 (adjusted daily closes). The 52-week high is $223.83, set intraday on 22 June 2026. The last close is 65.9% below it.
Closes since the low: $62.22 on 5 November 2026, $66.51 on 6 November 2026, $75.33 on 9 November 2026, $72.23 on 10 November 2026, $78.70 on 11 November 2026 and $76.28 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $58.45, set on 20 November 2025.
The market has priced a 45.5% three-month decline, from a close of $140.00 on 14 August 2026, against company guidance for fiscal 2027 adjusted earnings per share of $8.10–8.90. The price reflects doubt about leverage and customer timing more than doubt about current orders.
The case has room to be tested: the 21 October 2026 close of $102.15 and the buyback average of $86.31 mark the range overhead where the shares traded before and just after the report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Reported sales against the $1.420–1.440 billion guide show whether data-center shipments hold the fourth-quarter run rate, and net leverage shows whether debt is coming down.
- ~June 2027 (est.): Targeted closing of the Ophir Optics acquisition, subject to regulatory approvals. Adds about $650 million of cash-funded purchase cost; the company targets net leverage of 1.5–2.0 times by then.
What would change the view
A daily close below $65, which would return the shares toward the $62.22 close of 5 November 2026 and undo the rebound. Fourth-quarter 2026 sales below the $1.420 billion low end of guidance, or total book-to-bill under 1.0, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Debt-funded acquisitions and capital spending raise interest costs faster than earnings. Confirmed by: net leverage above the 2.8 times reported for 30 September 2026, or a rising interest-expense line, at the fourth-quarter report.
- Data-center sales shift between quarters on customer scheduling, hiding the true run rate. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 sales below the $1.420 billion low end of guidance.
- Hyperscaler spending worries cut orders for data-center boards. Confirmed by: a large customer guiding capital spending lower, or total book-to-bill falling under 1.0.
- Cancellable backlog fails to convert into shipments. Confirmed by: 90-day backlog falling from the $1.3 billion reported on 22 October 2026 without matching shipments.
- The shares keep trading with broad market and oil-price swings rather than company results. Confirmed by: another move of more than 10% in one session with no company news, as on 9 November 2026.
What it trades with
TTM trades with AI hardware suppliers and moves with the broad market on macro news. The 9 November 2026 rebound followed a fall in crude oil prices that eased cost worries about AI data-center construction (StockStory). Hyperscaler spending guidance is the main outside driver of data-center board orders.
The Aerospace & Defense segment, with $2.0 billion of program backlog, follows defense budgets and program schedules rather than AI spending. That gives the shares a second driver separate from the data-center cycle.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $1,203.9 million, up 60% from a year earlier; adjusted EPS $1.46; adjusted EBITDA $242.3 million (20.1% margin); total book-to-bill 2.13. TTM third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: sales $1.420–1.440 billion and adjusted EPS $1.77–1.83. Preliminary fiscal 2027 guidance: sales $6.5–6.75 billion and adjusted EPS $8.10–8.90, excluding pending acquisitions. TTM third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Net leverage was 2.8 times pro-forma adjusted EBITDA at 30 September 2026; long-term debt $1,459.9 million and short-term debt $184 million. TTM third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- TTM repurchased about 1.16 million shares for about $100 million at an average $86.31 on 26 October 2026 and 27 October 2026, and authorised a new $100 million program expiring 27 October 2027. iconnect007, citing TTM announcement · as of
- TTM agreed to buy MKS's Ophir Optics business for about $650 million in cash, with closing targeted for the second quarter of 2027. TTM and MKS announcements via iconnect007 · as of
- CEO Edwin Roks bought 5,000 shares at $88.07 and director Wajid Ali bought 10,000 shares at an average $90.25 in open-market purchases on 28 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- Directors Wajid Ali (10,000 shares at $63.15) and Philip Franklin (5,000 shares at $61.92) made open-market purchases on 5 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings filed 5 November 2026 and 9 November 2026 · as of
- Shares rose about 13% in the afternoon session on 9 November 2026, which StockStory tied to falling crude oil prices and a broad market rebound. StockStory, 9 November 2026 · as of
Sources
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