CBRL · Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $76.05
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $76.05, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 13.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $76.05, over the $73.67 52-week high of 30 October 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; first-quarter fiscal 2027 comparable restaurant sales growth of 3% or more with a raised fiscal 2027 outlook would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 25 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 849
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −2.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 71.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 1.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 88.4
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −301
- Price to earnings (×)
- 47.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.5
All filed numbers
What Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 849 | −2.2 | 71.2 | 1.5 |
| first filed | 797 | −2.9 | 69.8 | 0.8 |
| first filed | 875 | −7.9 | 66.5 | 0.1 |
| first filed | 797 | −5.7 | 68.8 | −4.1 |
| first filed | 868 | −2.9 | 69.5 | 0.5 |
| first filed | 821 | +0.5 | 69.9 | 1.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 10.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 31.7 | 12.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 1 May 2026, filed 9 June 2026; against the quarter to 2 May 2025 | +0.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 206 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 118 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 88.4 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 36.5 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 337 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −301 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +3.0% on a year | 92.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 36.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | 164 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 478 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,497 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,797 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 47.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 24.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.1 days of average trading to cover, +4.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $182K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $17.5M |
The thesis
Cracker Barrel's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The price has run ahead of the operating evidence: the $66.13 close on 11 November 2026 sits above every cited analyst target, while comparable restaurant sales fell 2.1% in the latest reported quarter. The first-quarter fiscal 2027 report, expected around 9 December 2026, settles it by testing the company's forecast of 3%–5% comparable restaurant-sales growth.
The 23 September 2026 fourth-quarter release and the 10-K filed on 25 September 2026 are still the latest results. Company news since then covers a holiday menu (20 October 2026) and a Veterans Day campaign (9 November 2026), neither of which changes the sales or profit picture. First-quarter comparable restaurant sales at or above 3%, with the fiscal 2027 outlook raised, would show the lag view is wrong.
David Deno has been president and chief executive since 10 August 2026, the company's 2026 proxy statement confirms. He was Cracker Barrel's finance chief from 2012 to 2019 and ran Bloomin' Brands from 2019 to 2024. Fiscal 2027 is his first full-year plan, which makes this a turnaround under new leadership that the reported numbers have yet to confirm.
Bullish and bearish views on Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc
The bull case on Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc (CBRL), in brief: guidance sets a clear demand test. The bear case: restaurant sales are still falling.
Bull case
- Guidance sets a clear demand test. The 23 September 2026 release guided to 3%–5% fiscal 2027 comparable restaurant-sales growth, revenue of $3.325 billion–$3.4 billion, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) of $180 million–$200 million. Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $147.7 million, Pulse 2.0 reported on 27 September 2026.
- The fourth quarter beat estimates widely. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.99 against a $0.15 estimate, and sales of $849.3 million beat an $836.9 million estimate, Benzinga reported on 23 September 2026.
- The balance sheet is lighter. Debt was $337.2 million at the end of fiscal 2026, against $484.6 million a year earlier, per the 23 September 2026 release. The company said a sale-leaseback of 26 stores raised about $77 million for debt repayment, and the Maple Street Biscuit Company sale closed on 20 July 2026.
- Value menus target price-sensitive traffic. The company launched a $7.99 breakfast and an $8.99 early-dine offer alongside the fourth-quarter report, Benzinga reported on 23 September 2026.
- Some analysts moved up after the report. UBS raised its target to $53 from $46 at Hold on 29 September 2026, and Wells Fargo kept a Buy rating with a $60 target on 30 September 2026, according to StockAnalysis.
Bear case
- Restaurant sales are still falling. Fourth-quarter comparable restaurant sales fell 2.1% while comparable retail sales rose 0.7%, per the 23 September 2026 release. The 3%–5% forecast needs a reversal that no reported quarter has yet shown.
- The price sits above every cited target. MarketBeat put the average analyst target at $50.86 across 12 analysts on 21 October 2026. Wells Fargo's $60, the highest cited, is also below the $66.13 close of 11 November 2026.
- Analysts expect a first-quarter loss. Benzinga lists a first-quarter consensus loss of $0.09 per share on revenue of $813.3 million, and FXEmpire a $0.06 loss on $831.18 million, both as of 6 November 2026. The next report may offer little profit support even if sales improve.
- The revenue forecast was a reset. Benzinga reported on 23 September 2026 that the company cut its fiscal 2027 sales guide from $3.8 billion–$3.9 billion to $3.325 billion–$3.4 billion, against a $3.386 billion consensus estimate.
- Fourth-quarter profit had a one-time benefit. Adjusted EBITDA of $62.1 million included about $9.1 million of tariff refunds, net of investments, per the 23 September 2026 release. The fiscal 2027 plan also assumes about 3% commodity inflation and 2.5%–3% hourly wage inflation.
Price setup
The shares closed at $66.13 on 11 November 2026, 10.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $73.67 set on 30 October 2026. They closed at $70.27 on 4 November 2026 and fell to $64.81 by 6 November 2026, with no company results in between. The 52-week closing low was $25.02 on 30 December 2025.
On adjusted daily closes, the shares gained 13.7% over the three months to 11 November 2026. The last close sits above both the 50-day moving average of $58.46 and the 200-day moving average of $43.83. A close back under the 50-day average would put the shares below their autumn trading range; a push through the late-October high with no new results would point to positioning rather than operations.
SEC Form 4 filings since the fourth-quarter report show one open-market insider sale: 3,500 shares by Chief Human Resources Officer Donna Roberts at $52.08 on 1 October 2026. The other filings record awards and shares withheld for tax on vesting. Barchart reported a large short position earlier in 2026, so short covering can still move the price independently of results.
Catalysts ahead
- 19 November 2026: Annual meeting of shareholders (virtual, 10:00 a.m. Central Time): nine director seats, say-on-pay, auditor ratification and a shareholder proposal on blank-check preferred stock. Shows how much governance pressure the board faces in Deno's first year; a vote for the blank-check proposal over the board's opposition would curb its ability to adopt a rights plan against a dissident.
- ~9 December 2026 (est.): First-quarter fiscal 2027 results; the company has not confirmed a date, and last year's first-quarter report came on 9 December 2025. First reported test of the 3%–5% comparable restaurant-sales forecast and the $180 million–$200 million adjusted EBITDA guide, against a consensus first-quarter loss.
What would change the view
A daily close above $76.05, over the $73.67 52-week high of 30 October 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; first-quarter fiscal 2027 comparable restaurant sales growth of 3% or more with a raised fiscal 2027 outlook would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
The main outside exposures are costs and consumer demand. The fiscal 2027 plan assumes about 3% commodity inflation and 2.5%–3% hourly wage inflation (company release, 23 September 2026), and the breakfast-heavy menu ties margins to egg and pork prices.
Company events move the shares on their own: Parameter reported an 8% jump after the 23 September 2026 fourth-quarter report. Governance is a second company-specific driver. The 19 November 2026 annual meeting votes on nine directors and a shareholder proposal from The Accountability Board requiring shareholder approval before issuing "blank check" preferred stock, which the board opposes, citing seven proxy contests by Sardar Biglari (proxy supplement, 2026).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter revenue was $849.3 million; comparable restaurant sales fell 2.1% and comparable retail sales rose 0.7%. Cracker Barrel fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $62.1 million, including about $9.1 million of tariff refunds, net of investments. Cracker Barrel fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results release · as of
- Fiscal 2027 guidance: revenue of $3.325 billion–$3.4 billion, comparable restaurant-sales growth of 3%–5%, adjusted EBITDA of $180 million–$200 million against $147.7 million in fiscal 2026. Cracker Barrel fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results release; Pulse 2.0, 27 September 2026 · as of
- The fiscal 2027 sales guide was lowered from $3.8 billion–$3.9 billion to $3.325 billion–$3.4 billion, against a $3.386 billion consensus estimate. Benzinga, 23 September 2026 · as of
- The average analyst price target was $50.86 across 12 analysts. MarketBeat, 21 October 2026 · as of
- First-quarter fiscal 2027 consensus is a $0.09 per-share loss on $813.3 million of revenue per Benzinga, and a $0.06 loss on $831.18 million per FXEmpire. Benzinga and FXEmpire CBRL earnings pages · as of
- David Deno has been president and chief executive since 10 August 2026, succeeding Julie Masino. Cracker Barrel 2026 definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) · as of
- Fiscal 2026 year-end debt was $337.2 million, against $484.6 million at fiscal 2025 year-end. Cracker Barrel fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results release · as of
Sources
- Cracker Barrel Reports $849.3 Million In Q4 Revenue And Targets Up To $3.4 Billion In Fiscal 2027 Sales · pulse2.com
- CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC - Form DEF 14A - FY2026 · sec.gov
- 2026 Proxy Supplement: Considerations Regarding the Company's 'Blank Check' Preferred Stock Provisions · sec.gov
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) Stock Has Average Price Target of $50.86 According to Analysts · marketbeat.com ·
- Stock Analysis
- Benzinga
- FXEmpire
- A Major Short Squeeze Could Be Brewing in Cracker Barrel Stock · metatrader.com
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