CAL · Caleres
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $15.20
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $15.20, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are unchanged since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $15.20, 13% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 1 August 2026, filed 10 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 696
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +5.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 54.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 11.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 67.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −237
- Price to earnings (×)
- 8.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.2
All filed numbers
What Caleres reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 696 | +5.6 | 54.8 | 11.2 |
| first filed | 667 | +8.5 | 47.3 | 3.6 |
| first filed | 695 | +8.7 | 41.8 | −3.8 |
| first filed | 790 | +6.6 | 41.8 | 1.5 |
| first filed | 659 | −3.6 | 43.4 | 1.4 |
| first filed | 614 | −6.8 | 45.4 | 1.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 77.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 52.6 | 58.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 2 August 2025 | +0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 117 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 50.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 67.3 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 50.9 |
| Debt ($M) credit line | 288 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −237 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 153 |
| Inventory ($M) | 754 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 674 |
| Market value ($M) | 456 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 693 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 8.0 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 8.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 14.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.0 days of average trading to cover, −11.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $168K |
The thesis
Caleres' brand-led earnings recovery is real, but a shrinking Famous Footwear chain and Q3 guidance below expectations keep the case contested. The Q3 report, expected in December, settles whether the raised $1.50–$1.65 fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) range holds.
The 9 September 2026 Q2 report beat on adjusted EPS, $0.47 against $0.37 expected, per earnings coverage that day. Q3 guidance of $0.62–$0.70 came in below the $0.83 expected. The story is well known: the Q2 report and the tariff-refund recognition are well known, and no company-dated fact has appeared since.
The shares closed at $13.48 on 10 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes), 8.4% below the $14.71 adjusted 52-week high. The three-month change is −1.2% and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 55.5. Searches on 11 November 2026 found no company release, filing or analyst revision dated after the Q2 report, so the business facts behind the rating are unchanged. The shares have risen from $12.96 on 28 October 2026 without a new fact behind the move.
Bullish and bearish views on Caleres Inc
The bull case on Caleres Inc (CAL), in brief: Brand Portfolio growth is broad. The bear case: Famous Footwear still shrinks.
Bull case
- Brand Portfolio growth is broad. Q2 Brand Portfolio sales rose 23.6%, including 8.2% organic growth, per the company's 9 September 2026 release. The organic figure strips out the Stuart Weitzman acquisition.
- The earnings floor moved up. Fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance rose to $1.50–$1.65 from $1.40–$1.65 on 9 September 2026; the ceiling did not change.
- Famous Footwear steadied after quarter-end. Chief Financial Officer Daniel Karpel said comparable sales were flat quarter-to-date through Labor Day on the 9 September 2026 call.
- Adjusted earnings exclude the refund. Q2 results included $57.4M of tariff refunds and interest, excluded from adjusted earnings (9 September 2026 call). Trailing twelve-month EPS was $1.54 on 2 October 2026, per stockanalysis.com.
Bear case
- Famous Footwear still shrinks. Q2 comparable sales fell 5.9% and segment sales fell 6.3% (company release, 9 September 2026). Consolidated sales excluding Stuart Weitzman fell 0.8%.
- Q3 guidance trails expectations. Adjusted EPS of $0.62–$0.70 compares with $0.83 expected (earnings coverage, 9 September 2026). The company expects Q3 gross margin to expand 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points on tariff mitigation and lower current tariff rates.
- Promotions and tariffs weigh on margin. Karpel said Famous Footwear promotions would continue, and guidance assumes replacement tariffs in Q3 (9 September 2026 call).
- Channel peers are weak. JD Sports reported North America like-for-like sales down 6.8% on 20 August 2026, and Caleres shares fell 7.2% in the morning session that day (StockStory).
Price setup
The adjusted close was $13.48 on 10 November 2026, against $12.96 on 28 October 2026, $12.22 on 2 October 2026 and $11.74 on 18 September 2026. The 24 July 2026 close of $11.78 and the 18 September 2026 close of $11.74 are the lows the shares have held since the summer.
The shares remain 8.4% below the $14.71 adjusted 52-week high. The RSI of 55.5 compares with 57.6 on 28 October 2026 and 63.2 on 15 October 2026, so momentum is neutral. The consensus target is $17.00 from two analysts (stockanalysis.com, 2 October 2026), with individual targets ranging from $16 to $18. MarketBeat's page, refreshed around 31 July 2026, shows a "Reduce" consensus rating.
Crowding evidence is limited. The earnings date is within about a month, and only two analysts publish targets, so coverage is thin. No Form 4 insider sales or share issuance were found in the searches.
Catalysts ahead
- ~18 November 2026 (est.): Company notice of the Q3 FY2026 results date; in 2025 Caleres announced its date on 18 November 2025. Confirms when the Q3 guide of $0.62–$0.70 adjusted EPS is tested.
- ~9 December 2026 (est.): Q3 FY2026 results; date not confirmed by the company (Q3 2025 was reported 9 December 2025). Tests the Q3 guide, the $1.50–$1.65 annual range and the Famous Footwear comparable against −5.9% in Q2.
- Rolling, no fixed date: Collection of the $57.4M tariff refund and interest, or a ruling on the government's appeal of the Court of International Trade refund order. Cash receipt would confirm the booked amount; an adverse ruling would put it in question.
- Rolling, no fixed date: Target or rating changes from the two analysts publishing targets. With two targets, one change moves the $17.00 consensus materially.
What would change the view
A daily close above $15.20, 13% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Caleres trades with US discretionary retail and footwear names. Its reaction on 20 August 2026 to JD Sports' North America warning shows sensitivity to value-footwear peers. Sourcing in China and Vietnam ties the shares to tariff headlines, which can move them in either direction.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q2 FY2026 adjusted EPS $0.47 versus $0.37 expected; Q3 adjusted EPS guided to $0.62–$0.70 versus $0.83 expected. Q2 FY2026 earnings coverage · as of
- FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $1.50–$1.65 from $1.40–$1.65; ceiling unchanged. Caleres Q2 2026 results release (Business Wire / 8-K) · as of
- Brand Portfolio sales grew 23.6% in Q2, including 8.2% organic growth. Caleres Q2 2026 results release · as of
- Famous Footwear Q2 comparable sales fell 5.9% and segment sales fell 6.3%; consolidated sales excluding Stuart Weitzman fell 0.8%. Caleres Q2 2026 results release · as of
- CFO Daniel Karpel said $57.4M of tariff refunds and related interest were recognised in Q2 and excluded from adjusted earnings; Famous Footwear comparable sales were flat quarter-to-date through Labor Day. Q2 2026 earnings call transcript · as of
- JD Sports cut its FY27 profit outlook, citing North America like-for-like sales down 6.8%; Caleres shares fell 7.2% in the morning session. StockStory via FinancialContent · as of
- Consensus target $17.00 from two analysts, range $16 to $18; trailing twelve-month EPS $1.54. stockanalysis.com CAL summary · as of
- Adjusted close $13.48; 8.4% below the $14.71 adjusted 52-week high; three-month change −1.2%; 14-day RSI 55.5. Split/dividend-adjusted daily bars · as of
Sources
- Caleres to Announce Third Quarter 2025 Results on December 9 · businesswire.com ·
- Caleres Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results · businesswire.com ·
- Caleres, Inc. (CAL) · stockanalysis.com
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