CLSK · CleanSpark
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $9.35
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
28.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $9.35, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 46.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $9.35, which would put the shares back above their mid-October level and show them leading the S&P 500. A signed lease on the Texas campuses would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 6 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −620
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,577
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −36.3
All filed numbers
What CleanSpark reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Pre-tax income ($M) quarter to 31 March 2026, filed 11 May 2026 | −378 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −998 | −240 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 31 March 2026, filed 6 August 2026; against the quarter to 31 March 2025 | −17.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −529 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 91.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −620 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 203 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,780 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,577 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 761 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,708 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,285 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −36.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 30.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.6 days of average trading to cover, +3.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $435K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.9M |
The thesis
CleanSpark's $6.6 billion Georgia data-center lease is signed and financed, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Texas data-center policy threatens the second lease, analysts are cutting targets and bitcoin output is falling. The fiscal fourth-quarter report, projected by an earnings-calendar site for 24 November 2026 and not yet confirmed by the company, shows whether mining can carry the company until Sandersville rent starts in late 2027.
The shares closed at $6.84 on 12 November 2026, down 43.4% over three months from $12.09 on 14 August 2026 and 64.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $19.17 on 1 June 2026. The 52-week closing low was $5.68 on 5 November 2026. Since then the shares closed at $6.16 on 6 November 2026, $6.91 on 9 November 2026, $6.57 on 10 November 2026, $6.91 on 11 November 2026 and $6.84 on 12 November 2026. That rebound has not repaired the damage from the early-November downgrades, the Bernstein target cut and the Texas election result.
Bullish and bearish views on CleanSpark, Inc.
The bull case on CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK), in brief: the Georgia lease is signed and funded. The bear case: Texas policy has turned against the second lease.
Bull case
- The Georgia lease is signed and funded. The 20-year triple-net Sandersville lease carries about $6.6 billion of contracted revenue with a Meta Platforms unit, per TIKR on 5 November 2026. The company's 8-K shows CSDC Finance I closed $2.276 billion of 7.875% senior secured notes due 1 October 2031 on 25 September 2026 to fund the remaining construction cost.
- Some analysts keep positive ratings. B. Riley kept Buy and cut its target to $21 from $26 on 30 October 2026. Bernstein kept Outperform and cut its target to $11 from $24 in the week to 4 November 2026.
- Texas capacity is under exclusivity. Up to 885 megawatts of Texas capacity is held in exclusivity with the same tenant, per TIKR on 5 November 2026. A signed lease there would show Sandersville can be repeated. Peer Riot signed a roughly $28 billion, 15-year lease at its Corsicana campus, per TIKR, so tenant demand for Texas sites exists.
- Short interest is crowded. Short interest was 42.81% of the float on 25 September 2026, per Benzinga. Lease news or a better-than-expected report could force a sharp move higher in either the shares or the shorts' positions.
- Insider selling is light. The only open-market sale in recent SEC Form 4 filings is 3,335 shares by Chief Technology Officer Taylor Monnig at $12.33 on 1 October 2026, under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Four directors filed option exercises of 7,805 shares each for 30 September 2026.
Bear case
- Texas policy has turned against the second lease. TIKR reported on 5 November 2026 that Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat Governor Greg Abbott on 3 November 2026. Abbott had paused data-center permits in September, and the incoming governor has promised a moratorium, according to TIKR. Bernstein's Gautam Chhugani expects the pause to continue.
- Analysts are cutting. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered its target to $11.50 from $25 on 2 November 2026, then downgraded the stock to Market Perform with a $9.50 target, per TIKR on 5 November 2026.
- Mining output is falling. The company produced 529 bitcoin in September against 593 in August, and average hashrate fell to 36.0 exahashes per second from 38.3, per its monthly operational updates. Monthly updates have ended, so the next production figures arrive with the fiscal-year report.
- Estimates have dropped. Analysts expected a fiscal 2027 loss of $1.81 per share against $0.72 three months earlier, and fiscal 2026 revenue of $594 million against $766 million, per TIKR on 22 October 2026.
- Rent starts only in late 2027. The first data hall is scheduled for the fourth quarter of calendar 2027. The notes accrue interest in the meantime, and the company's completion guarantee leaves the parent exposed to construction cost overruns.
Price setup
The shares closed at $6.84 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $10.61 and the 200-day average of $12.06 (adjusted closes). The 52-week closing low of $5.68 on 5 November 2026 is the nearest reference below the price. The 11 November 2026 close of $6.91 matched the close on 9 November 2026, so the rebound has stalled in a narrow range.
The distance to the 50-day average is large, and the shares have not closed above it in the period covered by the recent closes. Crowding sits on the short side, per Benzinga's 25 September 2026 figure. The fiscal fourth-quarter report is the nearest event that can move the price in either direction.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. First audited read on mining margins, bitcoin fair-value marks, production and cash burn since September; an earnings-calendar site projects the date and the company has not confirmed it.
- ~15 December 2026 (est.): Texas grid-operator data-center audit, expected in mid-December per TIKR. Shapes whether Texas data-center approvals resume, which drives the value of the unleased Texas campuses.
- 19 January 2027: Gina Hinojosa takes office as Texas governor. Shows whether the promised data-center moratorium becomes policy; central to the second lease.
- ~1 October 2027 (est.): First Sandersville data hall ready for service. Rent begins on this date; any slip lengthens the period mining cash flow must cover.
What would change the view
A daily close above $9.35, which would put the shares back above their mid-October level and show them leading the S&P 500. A signed lease on the Texas campuses would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
CleanSpark trades with other bitcoin miners that are turning to artificial-intelligence hosting. TIKR reported that Cipher Digital fell 27% and IREN fell 25% in the week to 4 November 2026, against CleanSpark's 21%. Bernstein cut Riot's target to $18 from $35 in the same round. Bitcoin price swings feed both mining margins and the value of the company's bitcoin holdings.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- CSDC Finance I closed $2.276 billion of 7.875% senior secured notes due 1 October 2031 to fund remaining Sandersville costs. CleanSpark 8-K · as of
- September 2026 bitcoin production was 529 versus 593 in August; average operating hashrate was 36.0 exahashes per second versus 38.3. CleanSpark September and August 2026 operational updates · as of
- B. Riley kept a Buy rating and cut its price target to $21 from $26. Company news, 30 October 2026 · as of
- Analysts expect a fiscal 2027 loss of $1.81 per share versus $0.72 three months earlier, and fiscal 2026 revenue of $594 million versus $766 million. TIKR · as of
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded CleanSpark to Market Perform with a $9.50 target, after cutting its target to $11.50 from $25 on 2 November 2026; Bernstein cut its target to $11 from $24 and kept Outperform. TIKR, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat Governor Greg Abbott on 3 November 2026; Abbott had paused data-center permits in September and the incoming governor has promised a moratorium. TIKR, 5 November 2026 · as of
- CleanSpark closed at $5.68 on 5 November 2026, its 52-week closing low, and at $6.84 on 12 November 2026. Adjusted daily closes · as of
- Chief Technology Officer Taylor Monnig sold 3,335 shares at $12.33 on 1 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 1 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- CleanSpark Lost 21% in a Week to a New 52-Week Low. Bernstein Still Sees 62% Upside · tikr.com ·
- KBW downgrades Cipher and CleanSpark · blockspace.media
- Bernstein cuts AI infrastructure targets · blockspace.media
- CleanSpark Has Lost More Than Half Its Value. B. Riley Still Sees 156% Upside · tikr.com
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