KODK · Eastman Kodak
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $10.03
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $10.03, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 18.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $10.03, which would put the shares well over the 50-day and 200-day averages and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter Advanced Materials & Chemicals revenue above the second quarter's $105 million would also show the case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 276
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +2.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 26.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 465
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 233
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.5
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 20.1
All filed numbers
What Eastman Kodak reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 276 | +2.6 | 26.4 | 5.4 |
| first filed | 311 | +18.3 | 26.4 | 4.8 |
| first filed | 265 | +7.3 | 21.5 | −0.4 |
| first filed | 290 | +9.0 | 23.1 | −0.3 |
| first filed | 269 | +3.1 | 25.3 | 7.1 |
| first filed | 263 | −1.5 | 19.4 | −1.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 24.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −86.0 | 21.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +14.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 489 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 24.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 465 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 343 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 110 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 233 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −11.2% on a year | 87.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −12.8% on a year | 75.0 |
| Receivables ($M) | 134 |
| Inventory ($M) | 261 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 654 |
| Market value ($M) at the 13 November 2026 close, filed figures to 4 August 2026 | 796 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 563 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 20.1 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 58.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.8 days of average trading to cover, +8.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $57K | $0 |
The thesis
Eastman Kodak is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter revenue in Advanced Materials & Chemicals (AM&C), the unit the turnaround rests on, fell to $99 million from $105 million in the second quarter. The fourth-quarter report, expected around March 2027, settles whether AM&C resumes sequential growth or the second quarter was the peak.
Kodak's 3 November 2026 results release reported consolidated revenue of $276 million, up 3% from $269 million a year earlier. Gross profit was $73 million, operational EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, as adjusted by the company) was $31 million, and diluted earnings per share were $0.18. Finviz reported that revenue came in about 6% below a $294.0 million consensus and that lower interest expense, $3 million against $18 million a year earlier, drove much of the earnings beat. The release does not mention battery or pharmaceutical revenue and gives no numerical outlook.
The shares closed at $8.50 on 12 November 2026. That is a recovery from the post-report low close of $7.40 on 5 November 2026, and still 15.0% below the close of three months earlier.
Bullish and bearish views on Eastman Kodak Company
The bull case on Eastman Kodak Company (KODK), in brief: AM&C still grows from a year earlier. The bear case: the sequential AM&C test failed.
Bull case
- AM&C still grows from a year earlier. AM&C revenue rose 21% to $99 million from $82 million in the third quarter of 2025 (Kodak release, 3 November 2026). Finviz put AM&C operational EBITDA at $21 million against $16 million.
- Gross margin edged up. Consolidated gross margin was 26% against 25% a year earlier, and gross profit rose to $73 million from $68 million (release, 3 November 2026). The second-quarter margin was also 26%, so higher silver and aluminum costs have not yet cut it.
- Cash and debt improved in the quarter. Cash was $317 million at 30 September 2026 against $290 million at 30 June 2026, and year-to-date operating cash flow was break-even (release, 3 November 2026). Finviz reported debt reduced by roughly $400 million.
- A battery customer is named. Ateios Systems said on 1 October 2026 that its 50-megawatt-hour electrode coating line in Indiana is operating and named Kodak as its toll coating partner. Kodak does not disclose battery revenue.
- Shares have rebounded from the report-day low. The close rose from $7.40 on 5 November 2026 to $8.60 on 11 November 2026 and $8.50 on 12 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes).
Bear case
- The sequential AM&C test failed. AM&C revenue fell $6 million from the second quarter's $105 million. Finviz noted growth slowed from 40% in the second quarter to 21%.
- Print keeps shrinking. Print revenue fell 7% to $165 million from $177 million (release, 3 November 2026). Finviz reported Print operational EBITDA of $1 million against $8 million a year earlier, with management citing raw material costs, digital substitution and competitive pricing.
- Operating profit fell. Income from operations was $15 million against $19 million a year earlier, and operational EBITDA of $31 million compares with $36 million in the second quarter (Finviz, 4 November 2026).
- Inventory keeps building. Inventory was $261 million at 30 September 2026 against $218 million at 31 December 2025 (release, 3 November 2026). Cash was $337 million at 31 December 2025, $20 million above the September level.
- Management gave no guidance. The release states a focus on "finishing the year with profitable growth" and no numbers. Finviz reported no analyst questions were taken on the call.
- Registered share supply is available. Prospectus supplements dated 1 July 2026 (up to about 39.46 million shares) and 8 July 2026 (a further 4.43 million) cover resale by holders, and a $100 million at-the-market stock-sale program filed in November 2025 remains available.
Price setup
The last close was $8.50 on 12 November 2026. The 50-day moving average is $9.17 and the 200-day moving average is $9.33 (adjusted daily closes, as of 12 November 2026), so the shares trade below both.
The 52-week high is $14.87 (intraday, 4 May 2026), and the last close is 42.8% below it. The 52-week closing low is $6.69, set on 6 March 2026. The report-day low close of $7.40 on 5 November 2026 sits between that low and today's price.
The three-month change is −15.0%, measured from a $10.00 close on 14 August 2026. The shares have not regained the moving averages since the third-quarter report. The kill line sits above both averages.
At $8.50 the market is paying for AM&C growth near 21% a year but is already discounting the slowdown from the second quarter and the revenue miss against the $294.0 million consensus that Finviz reported on 4 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Settles whether Advanced Materials & Chemicals revenue returns above $105 million and gross margin holds at 26% or higher.
What would change the view
A daily close above $10.03, which would put the shares well over the 50-day and 200-day averages and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter Advanced Materials & Chemicals revenue above the second quarter's $105 million would also show the case failing.
What it trades with
KODK trades on its own operating results more than on any group of stocks. Aggregators list no major-firm ratings or price targets, so no analyst revision cycle runs between reports. The Print segment follows commercial printing demand, and aluminum and silver prices feed directly into gross margin. The battery link runs through customers such as Ateios Systems, whose coating line scale is public but whose Kodak volumes are not.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue was $276 million versus $269 million a year earlier; gross profit $73 million versus $68 million; gross margin 26% versus 25%. Kodak third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 Advanced Materials & Chemicals revenue was $99 million versus $82 million a year earlier (up 21%); Print revenue was $165 million versus $177 million (down 7%). Kodak third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 operational EBITDA was $31 million versus $29 million a year earlier; diluted earnings per share were $0.18; the release gives no numerical outlook. Kodak third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Cash was $317 million at 30 September 2026 versus $290 million at 30 June 2026; inventory was $261 million versus $218 million at 31 December 2025. Kodak third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter revenue of $276 million was about 6% below a $294.0 million consensus; Advanced Materials & Chemicals growth slowed from 40% in the second quarter. Finviz news analysis · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 Advanced Materials & Chemicals revenue was $105 million versus $75 million a year earlier; consolidated gross margin was 26%. Kodak second-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Ateios Systems said its 50-megawatt-hour electrode coating line in Indiana is operational and named Kodak as toll coating partner. Ateios Systems press release via GlobeNewswire · as of
Sources