MARA · MARA Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $9.68
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
27.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $9.68, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 28.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $9.68, a level above the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A signed lease with an AI tenant announced before 31 December 2026 would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 164
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −34.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 107.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −1,218
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,073
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 6.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −45.0
All filed numbers
What MARA Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 164 | −34.9 | 107.5 |
| first filed | 175 | −26.7 | −298.0 |
| first filed | 175 | −18.4 | −607.9 |
| first filed | 202 | −5.6 | −697.2 |
| first filed | 252 | +91.7 | 18.9 |
| first filed | 239 | +64.3 | 285.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 631 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −2,951 | 632 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +5.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −868 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 351 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −1,218 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 947 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 3,019 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,073 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,354 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,708 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,781 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 6.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −45.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 28.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.2 days of average trading to cover, +11.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $7.2M |
The thesis
MARA Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. It has removed its debt and collateral risk, but it has no signed artificial-intelligence (AI) tenant, so the shares still trade on bitcoin. Management's 31 December 2026 target for two leases settles the case, and the company's own 9 November 2026 shareholder letter says that timing could slip into 2027.
The shares closed at $7.20 on 12 November 2026. That is 56.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $16.43 set on 22 June 2026 and 22 cents below the $7.66 close of 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $5.88 on 5 November 2026. The shares are down 21.7% over three months, against a close of $9.20 on 14 August 2026.
The market already prices a mining company with unleased power sites. The shares sit below the 50-day average of $9.61 and the 200-day average of $10.63, both as of the 12 November 2026 close, and a signed lease is the one disclosed event that would change that pricing.
Bullish and bearish views on MARA Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA), in brief: debt and collateral pressure is gone. The bear case: revenue missed again.
Bull case
- Debt and collateral pressure is gone. After quarter-end MARA sold 13,597 bitcoin at about $81,039, for roughly $1.1 billion, and repaid $750.0 million of bitcoin-backed loans in full, per its 9 November 2026 10-Q. The shareholder letter says all pledged bitcoin was released and total debt is down $1.4 billion, or 37%, since the start of 2026.
- A buyback is authorized. The board approved repurchases of up to $500.0 million, per the shareholder letter of 9 November 2026. The program carries no obligation to buy any amount.
- Liquidity is large. Cash and equivalents were $946.5 million and bitcoin holdings were 34,012 at 30 September 2026, before the post-quarter sale, per the letter.
- Contracted AI-cloud revenue now exists. MARA's Exaion unit signed a four-year, $79 million take-or-pay GPU-as-a-service contract with its first US customer, per the 9 November 2026 letter. The unit's pipeline exceeds $3 billion in contract value but is not contracted.
- Power assets are advancing. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the Long Ridge acquisition on 5 November 2026, and the letter expects closing in the coming weeks. About 70% of the plant's output is under long-term contracts, and the letter says tenant talks for the Kearney site are in advanced stages.
- Even the bearish target sits above the price. JPMorgan kept an Underweight rating on 11 November 2026 with a $9 target, and Rosenblatt kept a Buy rating with an $11 target on 10 November 2026, both set after the third-quarter report.
Bear case
- Revenue missed again. Third-quarter revenue was $164.2 million, down 35% from $252.4 million a year earlier, per the shareholder letter. Benzinga's comparison put sales of $164.233 million against a $181.944 million estimate, and adjusted earnings of a $0.50 loss per share against an expected $0.12 loss.
- Reported profit reflects bitcoin prices. Net income of $632.1 million included an $885.3 million gain on digital assets, per the letter, so it does not describe mining results. The second quarter carried a $611.3 million net loss on the opposite swing.
- No lease is signed. The 9 November 2026 letter states that no AI or high-performance-computing lease has been signed and sets the two-lease target at "year-end 2026, but possibly 2027". Management has guided to this target since mid-2026.
- Mining costs are creeping up. Purchased energy cost per bitcoin mined was $39,674 in the third quarter against $39,235 a year earlier, per the letter. Bitcoin mined rose 5% from a year earlier to 2,247, below the 2,422 mined in the second quarter.
- Analysts remain split. JPMorgan lowered its Underweight target to $9 on 11 November 2026. Rosenblatt cut its Buy target to $11 on 10 November 2026, and Guggenheim reiterated a Neutral rating the same day.
- The Starwood structure caps upside. JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight on 14 September 2026, citing a joint venture with Starwood Digital Ventures under which MARA keeps about half of the value created.
Price setup
The shares closed at $5.88 on 5 November 2026, the lowest close in the past year. They then closed at $6.35 on 6 November 2026, $6.64 on 9 November 2026, $7.34 on 10 November 2026, $7.66 on 11 November 2026 and $7.20 on 12 November 2026. The rise began before the third-quarter results and continued through the day after them.
Overhead levels are far away. The 50-day average of closes is $9.61 and the 200-day average is $10.63, both as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week high is $16.43. The nearest reference below the price is the $5.88 closing low.
SEC Form 4 filings show the chief executive, Frederick Thiel, sold 27,505 shares at $6.79 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. On 4 November 2026 he, the chief financial officer and the general counsel had shares withheld for tax at $6.43, and two directors received grants of 22,936 shares each. These are routine compensation and plan transactions, and no insider open-market purchase appears in the recent filings.
Coinpedia cited about 26.3% of shares outstanding sold short on 10 September 2026, a figure that predates the quarter-end bitcoin sale and the third-quarter report.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 November 2026 (est.): Expected closing of the Long Ridge Energy & Power acquisition, following FERC approval on 5 November 2026. Closing adds a power plant with about 70% of output under long-term contracts and shows how MARA pays for it after selling bitcoin.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Management's target date for at least two AI tenant leases. Signed leases would give the AI-power plan its first commercial proof; the company says timing could slip into 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close above $9.68, a level above the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A signed lease with an AI tenant announced before 31 December 2026 would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
MARA moves with bitcoin and with listed miners. Benzinga coverage on 21 September 2026 grouped it with Strategy, Coinbase, Robinhood, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark as bitcoin crossed $85,000. The shareholder letter valued holdings at $83,556 per bitcoin on 30 September 2026.
Sector headlines on 17 October 2026 and 24 October 2026 linked MARA, Riot Platforms, IREN and Core Scientific to AI-credit worries for miners turning into AI hosts. A Benzinga headline on 6 November 2026 noted AI stocks sold off after the midterm elections. A lease announced by a peer, or a drop in AI financing availability, can therefore move MARA without any company news.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $164.2 million, down 35% from $252.4 million a year earlier; net income of $632.1 million included an $885.3 million gain on digital assets; 2,247 bitcoin were mined, up 5% from a year earlier. MARA third-quarter 2026 shareholder letter (8-K) · as of
- After quarter-end MARA sold 13,597 bitcoin at about $81,039 for roughly $1.1 billion and repaid $750.0 million of bitcoin-collateralized loans in full; all pledged bitcoin was released. MARA third-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $946.5 million and bitcoin holdings were 34,012 at quarter-end; the board authorized repurchases of up to $500.0 million. MARA third-quarter 2026 shareholder letter (8-K) · as of
- No AI or high-performance-computing lease has been signed; the target of two leases by year-end 2026 may slip into 2027. Exaion signed a four-year, $79 million take-or-pay GPU-as-a-service contract. MARA third-quarter 2026 shareholder letter (8-K) · as of
- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved MARA's acquisition of Long Ridge Energy & Power from FTAI Infrastructure; closing is expected in the coming weeks. MARA announcement of FERC approval · as of
- Third-quarter sales of $164.233 million missed the $181.944 million estimate; adjusted earnings of a $0.50 loss per share missed the $0.12 loss estimate. Benzinga estimate comparison · as of
- JPMorgan kept its Underweight rating and lowered its price target to $9; Rosenblatt kept a Buy rating and lowered its target to $11 on 10 November 2026. JPMorgan and Rosenblatt rating notes reported 11 November 2026 · as of
- Energized hashrate was 71.2 exahashes per second, up 18%; purchased energy cost per bitcoin was $39,674 against $39,235 a year earlier. MARA third-quarter 2026 shareholder letter (8-K) · as of
Sources
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