UNIT · Uniti Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $4.56
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
Closed 7.0% through its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $4.56, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 50.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $4.56, 12% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 848
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +17.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −5.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −1,013
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −10,412
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.2
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 102.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −85.5
All filed numbers
What Uniti Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 848 | +17.4 | −5.1 |
| first filed | 910 | +202.5 | 3.5 |
| first filed | 988 | +236.0 | 11.2 |
| first filed | 917 | +212.7 | 1.5 |
| first filed | 723 | +147.3 | −5.9 |
| first filed | 301 | — | 48.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −241 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −776 | −245 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −21.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 588 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1,601 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −1,013 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 862 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 11,273 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −10,412 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −1.7% on a year | 170 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −17.4% on a year | 1,900 |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 42.4 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −79.5 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,185 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 11,597 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 102.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −85.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, +9.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $59K |
The thesis
Uniti Group's third-quarter report on 9 November 2026 missed estimates on revenue and earnings and raised the guided FY2026 net loss, so the shares remain more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The adjusted close was $4.20 on 10 November 2026, 67.1% below the $12.75 52-week high and down 57.1% over three months. What settles the case next is whether Fiber Infrastructure bookings turn into reported revenue while the company carries about $11.3 billion of debt.
The 9 November 2026 release showed consolidated revenue of $848.1 million against a $867.0 million estimate, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted by the company) of $289.3 million versus $327.8 million a year earlier, and a net loss of $244.5 million. Loss per share was $1.03 against a $0.59 estimate. The company guided FY2026 net loss to $590 million to $620 million.
Full-year revenue guidance did rise, to $3.665 billion to $3.695 billion from $3.630 billion to $3.680 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guided to $1.46 billion to $1.49 billion. Shareholders' equity turned negative at $(79.5) million at 30 September 2026, from $380.4 million at 31 December 2025.
The shares closed at $4.20 on 10 November 2026. Two brokers cut targets that day, JPMorgan to $9 (Neutral) and Wells Fargo to $4 (Equal-Weight).
The narrative is dead as a hyperscaler-fiber breakout story: the advance to $12.75 has reversed, and the 9 November 2026 report missed on both revenue and earnings. The 14-day relative strength index, a 0-to-100 gauge of recent selling pressure, was 32.1 on 10 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Uniti Group Inc.
The bull case on Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT), in brief: bookings remain near record levels. The bear case: both earnings and revenue missed.
Bull case
- Bookings remain near record levels. Q3 Fiber Infrastructure new bookings were about $1.9 million of monthly recurring revenue, up 20% from a year earlier and the second highest on record, per the 9 November 2026 release.
- Consumer fiber is growing. Kinetic added about 46,000 consumer fiber net customers in Q3, a company record, and Kinetic consumer fiber revenue rose 22% from a year earlier (company release, 9 November 2026).
- Full-year revenue guidance moved up. The company lifted FY2026 revenue guidance to $3.665 billion to $3.695 billion, against a $3.662 billion estimate reported on 9 November 2026.
- Segment margin is high. Fiber Infrastructure produced $98.4 million of contribution margin on $201.5 million of revenue in Q3, per the 9 November 2026 release.
- Some analysts stay positive. TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on 5 November 2026. MarketBeat's consensus rating on 26 October 2026 was Hold, with a $11.47 average target and a high target of $16 from Raymond James on 29 September 2026.
Bear case
- Both earnings and revenue missed. Q3 revenue of $848.1 million trailed the $867.0 million estimate, and loss per share of $1.03 was wider than the $0.59 estimate (9 November 2026).
- The loss guide widened. FY2026 net loss is now guided to $590 million to $620 million, with net interest expense guided to $800 million (company release, 9 November 2026).
- Operating earnings fell. Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $289.3 million was down 12% from $327.8 million a year earlier.
- Leverage and equity are strained. Total debt was about $11.3 billion at 30 September 2026 and shareholders' equity was $(79.5) million. Cash was $861.5 million plus $159.6 million of restricted cash.
- Analysts are cutting targets. JPMorgan lowered its target to $9 and Wells Fargo to $4 on 10 November 2026. JPMorgan and TD Cowen had each cut to $11 from $12 on 31 July 2026.
- Price sits far below the moving averages. MarketBeat reported a 50-day average of $8.64 and a 200-day average of $10.20 on 26 October 2026, against a $4.20 close on 10 November 2026.
Price setup
The adjusted close on 10 November 2026 was $4.20, down from $4.86 on 28 October 2026 and $5.19 on 22 October 2026 (AAII). The 52-week high is $12.75, and the 50-day and 200-day averages cited above sit more than double the current price. The 14-day relative strength index recovered from 17.2 on 28 October 2026 to 32.1 on 10 November 2026 without a price recovery.
Crowding evidence is weak. Selling, not buying, dominates: the shares fell 57.1% over three months, and two brokers lowered targets the day after the report. Wells Fargo's $4 target sits just below the last close, and JPMorgan's $9 target sits well above it.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 July 2027: Oklahoma approvals and asset-sale deadline for the Series 2026-2 notes. About $91.1 million of prefunding prepays the notes if the sale does not close by this date.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~14 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q filing for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. Would give segment detail, debt terms and customer-concentration disclosure behind the 9 November 2026 results. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $4.56, 12% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Uniti trades as a leveraged telecom and fiber owner, so its shares respond to interest-rate and credit-market moves more than to semiconductor or optical-equipment news. Its Kinetic consumer fiber business ties it to US broadband competition, while the Fiber Infrastructure segment ties it to hyperscaler datacenter connectivity demand. Peers with large debt loads and fiber build-outs are the closer comparison than networking hardware makers.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 consolidated revenue $848.1 million, adjusted EBITDA $289.3 million, net loss $244.5 million; loss per share $1.03 versus a $0.59 estimate. Uniti Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1) · as of
- FY2026 guidance: revenue $3.665-$3.695 billion, adjusted EBITDA $1.46-$1.49 billion, net loss $590-$620 million, net interest expense $800 million. Uniti Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1) · as of
- Fiber Infrastructure Q3 revenue $201.5 million, contribution margin $98.4 million; new bookings about $1.9 million of monthly recurring revenue, up 20% year over year. Uniti Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K Ex. 99.1) · as of
- Total debt about $11.3 billion and shareholders' equity $(79.5) million at 30 September 2026, versus $380.4 million at 31 December 2025. Uniti Q3 2026 results release balance sheet · as of
- Kinetic added about 46,000 consumer fiber net customers in Q3, a record; Kinetic consumer fiber revenue rose 22% year over year. Uniti Q3 2026 results release · as of
- JPMorgan maintained Neutral and cut its target to $9; Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight and cut its target to $4. Benzinga analyst actions · as of
- Adjusted daily close $4.20, 67.1% below the $12.75 52-week high, down 57.1% over three months; 14-day RSI 32.1. Adjusted daily closes · as of
- MarketBeat consensus rating Hold with average target $11.47; 50-day average $8.64 and 200-day average $10.20. MarketBeat · as of
Sources
- Uniti Group Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
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