GENI · Genius Sports
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $5.60
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Guidance, 5 November 2026: Genius raised FY26 revenue guidance to $1.015B-$1.035B and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $287M-$297M after Q3 revenue of $269.9M beat the $261.2M consensus.
Price against the kill line
11.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $5.60, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 19.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $5.60, under the $5.92 close of 5 November 2026, the lowest close since the third-quarter report, which would show the post-report recovery failing. A cut below the $287–297 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range would also show the case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Genius Sports reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 5.7 days of average trading to cover, +10.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $5.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $5.8M |
The thesis
Genius Sports supplies official sports data to betting operators and prediction-market venues. The shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months, because the 5 November 2026 third-quarter report beat on revenue and raised full-year guidance while the price stayed far below its high. The fourth-quarter and full-year report, expected around March 2027, settles whether prediction-market revenue is reported as its own figure.
Third-quarter revenue was $269.9 million, up 62% from a year earlier and above the $261.2 million consensus estimate (company results and Benzinga, 5 November 2026). Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) were $87.1 million against $85 million guided. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.015–1.035 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $287–297 million.
The shares closed at $5.92 on 5 November 2026 and at $6.10 on 12 November 2026. The three-month price change is −27.2%, measured from the $8.38 close of 14 August 2026. A beat-and-raise report has not lifted the price back above its August level, so the market is paying little for the guidance increase. Analysts split after the report: Guggenheim raised its Buy target to $13, while BTIG cut its Buy target to $8 and Oppenheimer cut its Outperform target to $10.
Bullish and bearish views on Genius Sports Limited
The bull case on Genius Sports Limited (GENI), in brief: guidance was raised, not just held. The bear case: category revenue is still not quantified.
Bull case
- Guidance was raised, not just held. On 5 November 2026 Genius lifted both 2026 ranges, after reaffirming them on 28 September 2026 through Brazil's fixed-odds ban. Year-end cash is guided near $260 million (company results via 247WallSt, 5 November 2026).
- Cash generation is strong. Third-quarter free cash flow was $53.6 million and operating cash flow was $79.4 million, about 61% of adjusted EBITDA (247WallSt and European Gaming summaries of the 5 November 2026 report).
- Two prediction-market venues are partners. Genius partnered with Polymarket and Kalshi on content, integrity services and marketing, and launched Prediction.com, per European Gaming on 6 November 2026. JPMorgan estimated $30–35 million of incremental EBITDA from prediction markets at maturity when it initiated coverage on 25 September 2026.
- NFL rights run longer. 247WallSt reported on 5 November 2026 that the NFL license now extends through the 2029 season.
- Several targets sit far above the price. Guggenheim's Buy target is $13 (6 November 2026) and Macquarie's Outperform target is $11 (7 October 2026). Company news on 10 November 2026 reported an analyst maintaining a Buy rating.
Bear case
- Category revenue is still not quantified. Neither the guidance nor the reported lines break out a prediction-market figure (European Gaming, 6 November 2026). JPMorgan's $30–35 million is an analyst estimate for maturity.
- Earnings trail EBITDA. The third-quarter GAAP loss was $(0.06) per share against a near-breakeven consensus (Benzinga, 5 November 2026). 247WallSt attributed it to $19.1 million of acquisition-financing interest and $16.1 million of litigation costs, including a Sportscastr settlement provision.
- Debt is heavy. Total liabilities reached $1.48 billion, including an $825 million term loan and a $215.2 million Legend earn-out liability (247WallSt, 5 November 2026).
- Official-rights event counts fell. The count declined from 206,029 to 197,662 in the 247WallSt summary of the report, a volume measure that runs against the revenue growth.
- Executives sold in September. Chief Executive Mark Locke sold 800,000 shares at an average $6.57 across 15 September to 17 September 2026, and Chief Legal Officer Thomas Russell sold 50,000 shares at $6.51 on 17 September 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). The Chief Financial Officer's 2 October 2026 filing shows an option exercise with shares withheld for tax, not an open-market sale.
- Analysts cut after the print. BTIG lowered its Buy target to $8 on 5 November 2026, and Oppenheimer lowered its Outperform target to $10, reported on 7 November 2026. Stifel's Hold target is $7 (22 July 2026).
- Short interest was high. MarketBeat reported about 18% of the float sold short on 1 October 2026.
Price setup
The last close was $6.10 on 12 November 2026, after $6.38 on 11 November 2026 and $6.35 on 10 November 2026. The 200-day average is $6.09 and the 50-day average is $6.42, both as of 12 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The shares sit at the long average and below the shorter one.
The 52-week high is $11.57 (intraday, 3 December 2025), and the last close is 47.3% below it. The 52-week closing low is $3.92 on 10 April 2026. Closes since the report have ranged from $5.92 on 5 November 2026 to $6.38 on 11 November 2026.
The price already reflects a company that beat and raised on 5 November 2026 yet trades 27.2% below its 14 August 2026 close, so the market is discounting the leverage and the unquantified prediction-market revenue more than the guidance increase.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Initial programming from the Chris Paul and Words + Pictures media venture, announced 8 September 2026, due by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026. Programming reaching air would confirm management's timing and add a second commercial channel for Legend.
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. First chance after the third quarter to see a separate prediction-market revenue figure and test the raised $287–297 million EBITDA range.
What would change the view
A daily close below $5.60, under the $5.92 close of 5 November 2026, the lowest close since the third-quarter report, which would show the post-report recovery failing. A cut below the $287–297 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range would also show the case failing.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Prediction-market data fees never appear as a separate revenue line, leaving the category case unquantified. Confirmed by: the fourth-quarter report again omits a prediction-market revenue figure.
- Leverage amplifies any EBITDA shortfall: the company carries an $825 million term loan and a $215.2 million earn-out liability. Confirmed by: adjusted EBITDA below the $287–297 million range, or year-end net leverage guided above about 2 times.
- Another supplier wins exclusivity at Kalshi or Polymarket, turning Genius from a primary vendor into one of several. Confirmed by: a venue naming a different official data provider for a sport Genius supplies.
- Regulatory moves such as Brazil's fixed-odds ban cut betting data spend by more than the company's minimal estimate. Confirmed by: betting revenue below the second quarter's $117 million in a later quarter.
- Analyst targets keep drifting down after the print, as BTIG's and Oppenheimer's cuts did. Confirmed by: further target cuts from JPMorgan, Macquarie or Wells Fargo.
What it trades with
Genius trades with online-betting operators and prediction-market news flow, because betting operators are its largest customers: betting revenue was $117 million in the second quarter of 2026. Regulatory moves such as Brazil's 25 September 2026 fixed-odds ban reach the shares through operator data spend. The term loan makes the stock sensitive to credit conditions and small-cap sentiment.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $269.9 million, up 62% from a year earlier, versus a $261.2 million consensus estimate; GAAP loss was $(0.06) per share. Benzinga, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $87.1 million (32.3% margin) against $85 million guided; free cash flow was $53.6 million. 247WallSt summary of Genius Sports third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- 2026 guidance raised to $1.015–1.035 billion revenue and $287–297 million adjusted EBITDA; year-end cash expected near $260 million. Genius Sports third-quarter 2026 results via 247WallSt · as of
- Genius partnered with Polymarket and Kalshi on content, integrity services and marketing and launched Prediction.com; no prediction-market revenue figure was given. European Gaming, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Total liabilities were $1.48 billion, including an $825 million term loan and a $215.2 million Legend earn-out liability. 247WallSt summary of third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Chief Executive Mark Locke sold 800,000 shares at an average $6.57 from 15 September to 17 September 2026. SEC Form 4, filed 17 September 2026 · as of
- Guggenheim raised its Buy target to $13; BTIG lowered its Buy target to $8; Oppenheimer lowered its Outperform target to $10. Benzinga analyst-action reports, 6 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Genius Sports Q3 2026: Revenue Beats, but EPS Miss Stings · 247wallst.com
- Genius Sports beats Q3 guidance and raises full-year outlook · europeangaming.eu ·
- Genius Sports Ltd - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
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