IESC · IES Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $207.46
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $207.46, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 57.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $207.46, which would recover a large part of the November decline and show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fiscal fourth-quarter report with backlog above the $4,525.1 million reported at 30 June 2026 would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 31 July 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,243
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +39.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 27.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 14.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 228
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 228
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.6
All filed numbers
What IES Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,243 | +39.6 | 27.4 | 14.4 |
| first filed | 974 | +16.8 | 26.2 | 11.5 |
| first filed | 871 | +16.2 | 25.3 | 11.2 |
| first filed | 898 | +15.7 | 26.0 | 11.6 |
| first filed | 890 | +15.8 | 26.9 | 12.6 |
| first filed | 834 | +18.2 | 25.0 | 11.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 205 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 458 | 154 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +0.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 371 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 143 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 228 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 388 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 March 2026, filed 1 May 2026; non-current long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 35.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 March 2026, filed 1 May 2026 | 228 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +131.0% on a year | 358 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +116.3% on a year | 2,802 |
| Receivables ($M) | 723 |
| Inventory ($M) | 134 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,229 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,785 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,558 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 13.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.4 |
Share count restated for the 2-for-1 split of 2026-08-24.
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, +8.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $255.8M |
The thesis
IES Holdings' data-center electrical and infrastructure work still produces strong operating numbers, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The shares closed at $177.32 on 11 November 2026, 56.6% below the 52-week high of $408.26 (intraday, 12 August 2026). The fiscal fourth-quarter report, expected near 20 November 2026 and not yet confirmed by the company, settles whether backlog and profit hold now that the DBM Global acquisition has closed.
The 3-month price change is −52.6%. The shares closed at $374.22 on 13 August 2026 and hit a 52-week closing low of $145.58 on 5 November 2026. They have since recovered to $177.32, but the 50-day average of $274.17 and the 200-day average of $293.69 (both as of 11 November 2026) are far above the price.
No company filing or news release found for this note explains the fall from August to early November. The latest operating figures cover the quarter ended 30 June 2026 and were reported on 31 July 2026. The price now reflects doubt about how much of that quarter's profit growth carries into the fiscal fourth quarter, with the acquisition debt and share issuance added.
Bullish and bearish views on IES Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on IES Holdings, Inc. (IESC), in brief: Communications growth has an operating source. The bear case: the price sits far below its averages.
Bull case
- Communications growth has an operating source. Fiscal Q3 2026 Communications revenue was $453.1 million, up 51% year over year, with segment operating income of $83.6 million. IES named data-center demand as the primary driver in its 31 July 2026 release.
- Capacity additions reached revenue. Infrastructure Solutions revenue was $224.1 million in fiscal Q3 2026, up 73% year over year. IES attributed the rise mainly to custom-engineered data-center solutions and expanded capacity.
- Profit grew faster than sales. Fiscal Q3 2026 operating income was $178.5 million, up 60%, against revenue growth of 40% to $1,242.7 million (IES results, 31 July 2026).
- The acquisition widens the revenue base. DBM Global generated about $1.5 billion of revenue in the twelve months ended 30 June 2026 and now reports as IES's Structural line of business (IES 8-K, 5 October 2026).
- Shares have recovered from the low. The close was $145.58 on 5 November 2026 and $177.32 on 11 November 2026, five sessions later.
Bear case
- The price sits far below its averages. The 11 November 2026 close of $177.32 is below both the 50-day average of $274.17 and the 200-day average of $293.69. The decline came without a new operating report.
- Backlog is not all enforceable work. At 30 June 2026, IES reported $4,525.1 million of backlog but $2,801.6 million of remaining performance obligations. Its reconciliation says backlog includes agreements and letters of intent that are unenforceable before work starts.
- Housing is a separate drag. Fiscal Q3 2026 Residential revenue was $324.1 million, down 6% year over year, and operating income fell to $16.3 million from $33.4 million.
- Debt and share issuance accompany the deal. The cash portion of the DBM Global purchase draws on an expanded credit facility, and 430,974 new shares went to sellers on 5 October 2026.
- New share supply is possible. IES filed an automatic registration statement on 2 July 2026 that allows sales of common stock, preferred stock, debt securities and warrants. SEC Form 4 filings dated 2 October 2026 show only small director share awards, with no open-market sales listed.
Price setup
The shares closed at $177.32 on 11 November 2026, after $172.43 on 10 November 2026, $173.92 on 9 November 2026, $158.45 on 6 November 2026 and $145.58 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week closing low of $145.58 on 5 November 2026 is the level that separates a bounce from a new decline.
The 52-week high is $408.26 (intraday, 12 August 2026), and the last close is 56.6% below it. The 3-month price change is −52.6%. Both the 50-day average ($274.17) and the 200-day average ($293.69) sit well above the price, so a recovery has to cover a wide gap before the shares trade above either.
An earnings date about nine days away adds event risk in both directions. IES announced last year's schedule on 14 November 2025 and reported on 21 November 2025 before the market opened. The 2026 date is unconfirmed.
Catalysts ahead
- ~20 November 2026 (est.): Fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results, the first report after the DBM Global closing. Shows whether backlog holds above $4,525.1 million, whether Communications growth continues, and how Residential profit and acquisition debt look.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~13 November 2026 (est.): Expected announcement of the fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter report schedule. Confirms the report date; last year IES announced on 14 November 2025, one week ahead of the 21 November 2025 release. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $207.46, which would recover a large part of the November decline and show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fiscal fourth-quarter report with backlog above the $4,525.1 million reported at 30 June 2026 would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
IES trades with other US data-center electrical and infrastructure contractors and with AI-spending sentiment. Its Communications segment, where fiscal Q3 revenue grew 51%, links the shares to hyperscale data-center construction. Its Residential segment, where revenue fell 6%, links a smaller part of earnings to US housing. The DBM Global acquisition adds structural steel exposure to commercial construction.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue was $1,242.7 million, up 40% year over year; operating income was $178.5 million, up 60%. IES Holdings fiscal Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Communications revenue was $453.1 million in fiscal Q3 2026, up 51%, with segment operating income of $83.6 million; IES named data-center demand as the primary driver. IES Holdings fiscal Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Backlog was $4,525.1 million and remaining performance obligations were $2,801.6 million at 30 June 2026. IES Holdings fiscal Q3 2026 backlog reconciliation · as of
- Residential operating income was $16.3 million in fiscal Q3 2026, versus $33.4 million a year earlier. IES Holdings fiscal Q3 2026 results release · as of
- IES completed the DBM Global acquisition for about $691 million, including about $545 million in cash and 430,974 IES shares. IES Holdings 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The 52-week closing low was $145.58 on 5 November 2026; the shares closed at $177.32 on 11 November 2026, against a 3-month reference close of $374.22 on 13 August 2026. Daily closing prices · as of
- SEC Form 4 filings dated 2 October 2026 show six directors received share awards of 79 to 159 shares each on 1 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- IES Holdings, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- IES Holdings announces fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and year end results earnings release schedule · barchart.com
- IES Holdings, Inc. (IESC) Earnings Date · therighttrader.com
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