SRAD · Sportradar Group

The thesis

Sportradar Group AG is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company supplies sports data to betting operators and prediction-market platforms, and its third-quarter 2026 report of 3 November 2026 showed revenue up 24% to €363 million and US revenue up 47% to €98.0 million. The fourth-quarter results and the closing of the Atrium Sports sale settle whether that growth carries into the shares.

The shares closed at $12.91 on 12 November 2026. That is 46.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $24.17 set on 30 December 2025. It is below the $14.17 close of 5 November 2026 and the $14.20 close of 3 November 2026 that European Gaming reported, so most of the post-report gain has been given back within a week. The 3-month change is –6.6%.

The company reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of €1,518–1,533 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) guidance of €360–368 million, both excluding the Atrium Sports sale. It did not raise either range after the third-quarter beat. The price at $12.91 sits below the 200-day average of $14.68, which indicates the market is not yet paying for the prediction-market growth the report described.

Bullish and bearish views on Sportradar Group AG

The bull case on Sportradar Group AG (SRAD), in brief: revenue growth accelerated. The bear case: guidance was not raised.

Bull case

• Revenue growth accelerated. Third-quarter revenue was €363 million, up 24% from €292 million a year earlier, per the company's Form 6-K of 3 November 2026.
• US is the fastest region. US revenue rose 47% to €98.0 million, 27% of the total. SBC News reported on 3 November 2026 that the company tied the growth to market expansion, including prediction markets.
• Cash generation continues. Third-quarter free cash flow was €73 million, up 12%. Nine-month free cash flow was €176.6 million, up 18%, per the 6-K.
• Repurchases are large. Cumulative repurchases reached US$519 million as of 30 October 2026, including US$408 million in 2026 and US$157 million in the third quarter, under a $1 billion authorization.
• Most brokers kept Buy ratings after the report. On 4 November 2026 Needham raised its target to $20 and Truist to $17, both with Buy. Guggenheim kept Buy with a $23 target. MarketBeat's average target was $18.03, per European Gaming on 4 November 2026.
• Product breadth is widening. Sportradar announced on 12 November 2026 an expansion of its Unified Odds Feed with new esports betting content.

Bear case

• Guidance was not raised. The company reiterated its 2026 ranges on 3 November 2026 after a third-quarter beat, which leaves the fourth quarter to carry less growth. The company guides to constant-currency growth of 19% to 21% for the year.
• Prediction-market revenue is still unquantified. The 6-K lists the Polymarket expansion to more than 20 leagues and competitions. It gives no separate euro revenue figure for prediction-market contracts.
• Margin slipped. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was €102 million, up 21%, with a margin of 28.2% against 29.0% a year earlier. SBC News cited higher costs at IMG ARENA, mostly sports rights.
• Cash has fallen. Cash and equivalents were €190 million at 30 September 2026 against €365 million at 31 December 2025, as repurchases ran ahead of free cash flow. Total liquidity including an undrawn credit facility was €440 million.
• Brokers are divided. JPMorgan kept Neutral and lowered its target to $12 on 4 November 2026. Citizens lowered its target to $19 and Guggenheim to $23 the same day.
• Executives are selling small amounts. SEC Form 4 filings show the Chief Legal Officer sold 1,840 shares at $12.10 on 15 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. The Chief Accounting Officer's Form 4, filed 10 November 2026, reports a sale of 3,500 shares at $12.83 on 28 August 2026.
• Operator legality is unresolved. Sportradar rejected the short-seller reports of 22 April 2026, and its results do not split revenue between legal and illegal operators.

Price setup

The last close in adjusted daily closes was $12.91 on 12 November 2026. The 50-day average was $12.63 and the 200-day average was $14.68 as of that date. The shares are above the first and below the second.

The recent closes were $14.17 on 5 November 2026, $13.54 on 6 November 2026, $13.61 on 9 November 2026, $13.37 on 10 November 2026, $13.22 on 11 November 2026 and $12.91 on 12 November 2026. Four straight lower closes followed 9 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $11.56, set on 29 September 2026.

The 200-day average of $14.68 and the post-report close near $14.20 mark the upper range the shares would need to reclaim for the rebound to count as complete. The 50-day average of $12.63 is the nearest level below the last close.

Catalysts ahead

• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected close of the $170 million Atrium Sports sale to Teamworks Innovations. Closing would add cash after the decline to €190 million at 30 September 2026; the company guides to the fourth quarter of 2026 and has given no date.
• ~1 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether fourth-quarter growth reached the 19% to 21% constant-currency range and whether prediction-market revenue gets a separate euro figure.

What would change the view

A daily close below $12.00, above the 52-week closing low of $11.56 (29 September 2026), which would erase the post-report rebound. A cut to the €1,518–1,533 million 2026 revenue outlook would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Guidance was reiterated, not raised, after a third-quarter revenue beat, leaving the fourth quarter to carry less growth. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter revenue growth below the 19% to 21% constant-currency range when the company reports full-year 2026 results.
• Prediction-market revenue still has no euro figure, so the central claim rests on company commentary. Confirmed by: the next report again gives no separate euro contribution from prediction-market contracts while US growth slows from 47%.
• Margin and cash are moving the wrong way even as revenue grows. Confirmed by: adjusted EBITDA margin below the 28.2% of the third quarter, or cash below the €190 million reported at 30 September 2026 without a matching asset-sale inflow.
• Operator legality remains unresolved after the short-seller reports of 22 April 2026. Confirmed by: a regulator or court action against operators that Sportradar serves, or a customer exit citing legality.
• Analyst views are split, and some targets sit near the share price. Confirmed by: more target cuts like JPMorgan's $12 of 4 November 2026, or MarketBeat's average target falling below the $18.03 reported on 4 November 2026.

What it trades with

Sportradar sells to sportsbook operators and leagues, so its revenue follows betting volumes and operator budgets. Its shares react to news on prediction-market growth and operator legality. Polymarket is a named prediction-market partner. The company reports in euros and the shares trade in dollars, so the euro-dollar rate affects both reported growth and the US-dollar share price.