WSC · WillScot Holdings
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $16.49
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
19.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $16.49, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 16.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $16.49, the 22 October 2026 close, which would erase the post-report gain. A fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin under 39.7%, or modular activations falling from a year earlier, would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 601
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 50.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 21.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 687
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −3,434
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.0
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 44.7
All filed numbers
What WillScot Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 601 | +6.1 | 50.7 | 21.0 |
| first filed | 612 | +3.9 | 50.0 | 19.2 |
| first filed | 549 | −2.0 | 52.1 | 17.6 |
| first filed | 566 | −6.1 | 50.4 | −32.5 |
| first filed | 567 | −5.8 | 49.7 | 21.0 |
| first filed | 589 | −2.6 | 50.3 | 21.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 71.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −60.6 | 51.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 710 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 22.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 687 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 15.1 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt and finance leases | 3,449 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −3,434 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +10.4% on a year | 150 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 417 |
| Inventory ($M) | 51.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 959 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,572 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 7,006 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 44.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 19.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.6 days of average trading to cover, +4.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $4.2M |
The thesis
WillScot Holdings is more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months because demand is improving: third-quarter sales of $601.3 million beat estimates and full-year sales guidance rose to $2.340 billion. Profit margin is the open question, since the 38.8% adjusted margin fell short of the 39.7% outlook, and the fourth-quarter report decides whether margin follows revenue.
The shares closed at $19.84 on 12 November 2026. That is above the $17.84 close of 5 November 2026, the day of the report, and 33.4% below the quoted 52-week high of $29.77 reached intraday on 25 June 2026. The three-month change is −16.2%, per adjusted daily closes. The market has paid for the sales beat but not for a recovery to the summer high, and the shares sit below Oppenheimer's $26 target.
An 8-K filed 10 November 2026 disclosed two forward-starting interest rate swaps entered on 6 November 2026. Together they fix the rate on $300 million of the company's variable-rate asset-based lending (ABL) facility debt at about 4.345%, from 30 June 2027 to 30 June 2030.
Bullish and bearish views on WillScot Holdings Corporation
The bull case on WillScot Holdings Corporation (WSC), in brief: revenue beat and guidance rose. The bear case: margin missed the outlook.
Bull case
- Revenue beat and guidance rose. Third-quarter sales were $601.3 million against a $583.7 million estimate, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.29 against $0.28, per company news dated 5 November 2026. Full-year sales guidance moved to $2.340 billion from $2.300 billion, against a $2.307 billion estimate.
- Modular demand is building. StockStory's call summary of 6 November 2026 reported modular activations up 12% from a year earlier and the modular order book up 20%. It also reported enterprise customer revenue up 15%.
- Dollar EBITDA met the outlook. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $233.6 million per StockStory, against an outlook of about $232 million. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance stayed at about $920 million.
- Part of the rate risk is fixed. The 8-K of 10 November 2026 shows $200 million of swaps with MUFG Bank at a fixed 4.3451% and $100 million with Capital One at 4.3450%. Both receive one-month term SOFR (the Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and start on 30 June 2027.
- Analyst support after the report. Oppenheimer kept an Outperform rating on 6 November 2026 and lowered its price target to $26.
Bear case
- Margin missed the outlook. StockStory put the third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin at 38.8%, below the 39.7% outlook. Sales guidance rose, but EBITDA guidance did not.
- Portable storage is weak. StockStory's 6 November 2026 summary said portable storage faced headwinds in the quarter.
- Data center exposure was flagged. StockStory reported that management named risk in the data center vertical. A slowdown in that one construction end market would hit activations and the order book.
- Leverage remains high. Net debt was $3.477 billion at 30 June 2026, 3.7 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, per the second-quarter results release. Interest costs weigh on cash flow until the swaps start.
- The long-run trend is still down. The last close is below the 200-day average of $21.71, and the 3-month change is −16.2%. The shares have not regained the August level.
Price setup
Closes since the report, quoted: $18.86 on 6 November 2026, $20.63 on 9 November 2026, $19.89 on 10 November 2026, $20.14 on 11 November 2026 and $19.84 on 12 November 2026. The 9 November 2026 close is the highest of that run. Since then the shares have held in a range between $19.84 and $20.14.
The last close is above the 50-day average of $17.97 and below the 200-day average of $21.71, both from adjusted closes as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low was $14.98 on 19 November 2025. The 200-day average and the $29.77 high are the nearest levels a recovery would have to pass.
SEC Form 4 filings show no open-market insider trades in the period. A director received a grant of 6,397 shares on 7 October 2026, and another director exercised options on 4 September 2026 with 10,736 shares withheld for tax at $19.98.
Catalysts ahead
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results (date not yet announced). Shows whether the adjusted EBITDA margin returns to the 39.7% level and whether activations and the order book keep growing.
What would change the view
A daily close below $16.49, the 22 October 2026 close, which would erase the post-report gain. A fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin under 39.7%, or modular activations falling from a year earlier, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Margin stays below the outlook as activation costs rise with volume. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin below 39.7%.
- Data center and other non-residential construction demand slows. Confirmed by: modular activations or the modular order book declining from a year earlier at the next report.
- High leverage limits flexibility if cash flow stays weak. Confirmed by: net debt above 3.7 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, or adjusted free cash flow below the prior-year period.
What it trades with
WillScot's shares move with non-residential construction and industrial leasing demand. Management names data center construction as an exposure. The shares fell 16.2% over the three months to 12 November 2026, per adjusted closes, despite the post-report rebound.
Interest rates matter for its debt-funded fleet. The swaps disclosed on 10 November 2026 cover $300 million of the ABL facility from mid-2027.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 sales were $601.338 million versus a $583.657 million estimate; adjusted EPS was $0.29 versus $0.28. Company news, WillScot Q3 2026 results · as of
- Full-year 2026 sales guidance raised to $2.340 billion from $2.300 billion, versus a $2.307 billion estimate. Company news, WillScot Q3 2026 results · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $233.6 million, a 38.8% margin, against an outlook of about $232 million and 39.7%. StockStory Q3 2026 earnings call summary · as of
- Modular activations rose 12% from a year earlier, the modular order book rose 20%, and enterprise revenue rose 15%. StockStory Q3 2026 earnings call summary · as of
- Oppenheimer maintained Outperform on WillScot and lowered its price target to $26. Analyst actions, company news · as of
- WillScot entered two forward-starting interest rate swaps on $300 million of ABL facility debt at a fixed rate of about 4.345%, effective 30 June 2027 and maturing 30 June 2030. WillScot 8-K, Item 8.01, filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- Net debt was $3.477 billion at 30 June 2026, 3.7 times trailing adjusted EBITDA. WillScot second-quarter 2026 results release · as of
Sources
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