m-and-a-activism-special-sits theme · 14 dossiers

Strategic review ended with NO buyer (confirmed 2026-05-08) Clearlake/Apollo walked and a ~$250M customer (~10% of revenue) is leaving starting 2027. The deal-premium thesis that was the only reason to watch this is dead; PTs slashed to…

M&A special-sit the only live leg decayed from "on ice" (NYT, 2026-05-29) to "fizzled out" (thedesk.net, 2026-06-01) over the same station-divestiture/antitrust impasse; the $6.56 deal-spec spike has fully round-tripped to ~$4.40. No…

Recognition-phase genomics re-rate that already ran ~96% in a year; now fading from a new $177 high to ~$163 while activist director Corvex/Meister dumps ~$107M into strength and price sits ~13% above the $143.83 avg PT. MATURING with…

Lithium-recovery momentum proxy is rolling over: China carbonate spot -18.7% from the May-13 high (CNY 200,500 → 163,000 on Jun-5) as Bald Hill/Finniss restarts and record GFEX warrants signal a supply response. The Q2 realized-price…

Activist turnaround (Hestia's Wolf as CEO) has played out ~3x off the $8.95 low, pinned near the 52-wk high $17.09 (~$16.72). It's a buyback/cost-cut EPS re-rate with revenue still -3% YoY; Citizens ratchets its PT to $19 — but the…

Powersports turnaround leg ($52→$75.25 peak) has played out and is rolling over PII hit a fresh 52-wk high then fell to $66.06 (−4% on 2026-06-05), now below consensus PT $68. MATURING, special-sit catalyst spent (Indian sale closed…

Reciprocal-pivot fundamentals intact (Q1 PSI rev +29% to $109.4M, FY26 guide raised to $495–507M), but the momentum leg broke: shares round-tripped $10.81→$9.26 weekly close (2026-06-05), severing the $9.70 shelf. No hard catalyst until…

Reverse-merger special situation, not a momentum trade. The 2026-06-01 Avenzo oncology merger + $215M PIPE pop already fired and has faded back toward the mid-$14s by 2026-06-07. Legacy holders keep a cash distribution + CVR + a ~2.8%…

Merger-arb shell, not a momentum name. REAX's near-all-stock takeover (5.152 REAX/share, $60-80M cash cap) is worth ~$8.7 in stock at REAX $1.68; RMAX trades ~$9.05, near parity. Thin spread, ~35% downside on a break, no narrative leg…

Two-activist takeout arb resolved against longs: the board rejected Forager's $4.80 bid (5/4, "significantly undervalues") and closed the $372M debt-funded KUBRA deal (6/1), the defensive move Veradace feared. Stock round-tripped to…

Closed all-cash merger in its closing window, not a momentum setup: IKS Health buying TruBridge at $26.25 cash, definitive proxy filed, shareholder vote 2026-07-07. Stock pinned ~$26 = ~1% gross spread to a Q3 2026 close. The narrative leg…

H2-2026 leasing inflection plus a data-center vertical guided +50% revenue / +70% project pipeline (Q1 call 2026-05-08), with a TOMS/PE takeover floor underneath. But the stock has gone nowhere since the 2026-05-07 beat-and-raise (~$26.47,…

Activist-anchored distressed deleveraging: STARTEEPO Invest at 6.22% (3rd-largest holder, 13D/A 2026-06-01) bets Lexmark synergies + a 7x→3x leverage compression re-rate the levered equity. The 2026-06-04 pop to $3.49 has stalled near…